Market blues…et al…

Markets, News — By on June 13, 2014 at 11:12 PM
John Faraclas

John Faraclas

This twenty-second overview of the shipping markets and world events affecting positively or negatively our trade by John Faraclas from www.allaboutshipping.co.uk in London on a Friday 13th (the UK’s day… you know the meaning) June 2014, begins to bring things to the fore! Now this is the turning point of the shipping markets and the world issues battering the human race!

We have warned long ago about the market’s conditions, preconditions and realities, but few, if any have got the message. Tonight we pause and recall the discussions our various teams had at Posidonia, just a week ago, with many of the industry’s stakeholders vis-à-vis the markets, the world economy and politics as things are getting per our estimation perfectly all right and within our prediction frame time-span.

Let’s now see the figures of the dry cargo market which are diving further – to the detriment of those who, since last year made “clever” announcements and reports in first class news media… We are not cynical, we repeat this, we are not employing any sort of irony whatsoever – despite once saying this, just for the shake to alert people in the industry, we are down to earth pragmatists with fresh new thinking! Analysts, brokers, the lot, should employ pragmatism no matter who pays them, which is evident, to write and express the wrong views destroying banks, shipping banks and large amount of the shipping portfolios (you can see that in the last 35 years from 400 shipping banks and institutions lending to the shipping industry, only about 40 are left…) As said, the turn of the funds will come, where there  is  a rush in the last five years… We include the stock markets too, where “analysts” got it wrong and exits began already. No analyst was powerful enough to convince the players in the shipping markets to abandon greediness… The results can evidently been seen. Herein in this site we had the chance during Posidonia with James Brewers’ reporting to give you another view of the markets, as well as with our pre, during and post Posidonia reports; events so far proves our right thinking! Valuating the markets need special valuers with deep down knowledge of many issues and well placed with those drawing the board, the world map, dictating the markets and geopolitics.

Now then, the BDI closed down 33 points since yesterday at 906 which is 83 points down since last Friday 6th of June, closing of Posidonia. We have stressed the fact that the BDI index struggles to maintain the 1, 000 point mark, now it seems it will struggle to maintain the 900 point mark, unless… This is an overall 1, 321 points below December 2013’s closing of 2, 227 points, a 59.3 percent down.

  • The BCI, closed down 62 points since yesterday at 1, 730 which is 63 points from last week’s 1, 793 points…
  • The BPI was also down 53 points at 582 points, which is 145 points down since last week’s 727… Far below the 1, 000 barrier!!!
  • The BSI down also another 12 points to 748 points which 54 points down since last week’s 802 points! Again under the 1, 000 points barrier.
  • The BHSI at 459 points down 6 points and 26 down since last week’s 485 points. Here too we are far below the 1, 000 point mark!
  • As for the wets? Same more or less situation alike last week…. With the BDTI at 635 down 2 since yesterday and the BCTI stable at 526; difficult situ here too!

Despite Petro Poroshenko’s meeting with Vladimir Putin in France last week it seems peace is far away. Since this saga begun, we have warned you for the mess that is to come; we stick in our view!
The more the West doesn’t have a coherent policy “to mount” an all out support for Ukraine the more Russia and its “brothers-in-arms” there, the separists , or the criminals as Kiev calls them, will go for it. Caution is important!

In Iraq, as the late Admiral and head for many years of the Greece’s frogmen and special forces John “Danny” Theofanides has predicted, things are turning upside down. Danny knew well and thanks to him, following his operations there as well as that of his men, his visits there afterwards as a civilian for business, we assert the situ correct… Iran thinks to move in and support Shias against the Sunni Islamists, and then… we shall see… a big mess. Already we have a very big mess in Afghanistan following the elections and the second round there and the Subcontinent region too sounds messy, with India and Pakistan at loggerheads… one again…et al…

China opens more fronts of discontent in the Far East, after Vietnam, Japan is bothering the Chinese and, oh well, things can get sour. Given the vested interests in the world of shipbuilding in the Far East region, its time they make or break. Do we have to pull out from the Far East and return to local shipbuilding, say in Europe? The argument of expensive ships, is a myth.- (full stop and period).

The world Cup is on in Brazil and many surprises are expected. Do not underestimate any team nor any situation as you might lose a lot if you are not disciplined!

For the above and other events, you can also listen to the video herebelow; have a nice weekend.

 

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