The Shipping Market’s Oxymoron…

News, Sales and Purchases, Shipping Indices, Stock Markets — By on September 19, 2014 at 11:46 PM
John Faraclas

John Faraclas

For a sixth week the shipping markets and its main dry index remained …afloat above the 1, 000 point mark, but only just, and it looks likely that the main index, the BDI, might dive below the 1, 000 mark… unless…

Despite the BDI’s 106 points overall fall since last week, nor the BDI nor the other indices correlate with the freight rates, be it a TC, PTC or voyage basis, and that’s Greek to me, …err an oxymoron! We have nearly a US$ 1, 000 rise in the average TC, so…is this a discrepancy, a paradox or what…?

In this thirty-sixth weekly recapitulation of the markets and world geopolitics affecting same, tonight Friday the 19 of September of  with John Faraclas in London, we are giving you a quickie glimpse of what might happen:

This 1, 075 points of the BDI is still 1, 172 points below the closing of December 2013 (at 2, 247 points), a 52, 2 centum down. As you can see and read, our prediction and market position respectively remains the same!

  • The BDI closed down 14 points since yesterday Thursday the 18th of September at 1, 075 points,  a 106 points less since last week’s 1, 181 points!
  • The BCI closed down 80 points since yesterday at 2, 112 points, which is 434 points down since last week’s 2, 546; a significant level of drop, enough to bring a bit of a panic, but at the same time same doesn’t correlate with the freight earnings!
  • The BPI was also down 5 points at 814 points which is 61 points down since the 875 points observed in last week’s closing! Again alike the Capers, this drop is not matching the earnings obtained during the week…
  • The BSI was down just one point at 1, 029 points, which is up 23 points from last week’s 1, 006 points.
  • The BHSI was up 4 points since yesterday at 498 points which is 21 points higher than last week’s closing at 477 points.

We need to see a response from those compiling the indices as many, almost everybody “complaint” with these figures which do not correlate with the levels of the freight earnings!

The wets on the other hand, once again produced mixed …feelings, the dirty and its respective index, the BDTI, closed down 10 points at 615 points, which is 30 points down from last week’s 645 points. The BCTI up one point since its latest published figure at 552 which is nine points down since last week’s 561  points.-

On the World Stage now:

  • The Ukrainian adventure got worse and will go far worse despite meetings and the brokerage of ceasefires and “concessions” of any kind… The Russian’s are, and will test the West’s nerves to the limit… Already there are other incidents happening… Be prepared for strange “phenomena”…
  • The Middle East and its periphery will soon produce more tremors despite air attacks and other means to cut-off the Islamic State, which is of course a must, but we question  the  cost. particularly of human life. Some people don’t know and cannot understand that this is the beginning of a major religious crisis et al, ; just wait and see. As we said last weekThe play begins to enfold now. Can the US and Iran become “bed fellows”, vis-à-vis combating ISIS and assisting the regime in Baghdad, it remains to be seen… On the …side lines, Kerry says this looks likely. We shall see. Wonder where are the famous emergency plans four star general had, given the 35 years of changes in the region…Grow up guys! Beheading hostages kidnapped one way or another during the  last two-three years and the ordeal that follows will create a devastating backlash in the countries from where the victims emanate, as well as the perpetrators, but also within the Muslim world…
  • Libya: The big melee there continues and we must be careful how we tackle this situation… There is more to come…
  • Europe is trying to find a new direction… Still early days, but it is a must that Europeans, all European governments make or break with the financial issues, austerity, unemployment and other major issues… Otherwise, I wonder who is going to pay the damage…err the bill!!! Greece is trying hard but something must be done as the Greek public’s sacrifices cannot last for ever (as it goes)… there might be an avalanche… and wonder the consequences within and …away… err elsewhere. Scotland’s landslide NO (a comfortable ten centum lead) saved not just the United Kingdom, not only Europe from incalculable financial repercussions, but the world too. In the coming days, months you will see why. Catalonia …re-affirms its position on an independence course, although the issue and figures are very different from those in the UK and Scotland in particular…
  • The Far East is a tinder box now…it goes with the population… The South China Sea as we observed during our Spring visit there, will produce tremors, tsunamis, you name it…
  •  In Africa, the Ebola, as predicted spreads and this can be lethal for millions…. CAUTION!!!! Think of the trade, travel et al…
  • The high alert continues and same options should be watched worldwide, not just in the UK and countries on ISIS’s target list… We repeat: a pre-emptive intervention is a must, not just airstrikes and proxy wars/support!  We must end this mess before it’s too late… September 11 should be our guide to avoid yet another mess! Again as you can see we repeat our last week’s advice!
  • On Illegal Immigration… Now is the time to curb it and not fell back, as from what we hear, in Greece for example, many Port Police Stations are being reduced/closed and we hope its personnel will be used in the most efficient way in combating illegal immigration, as well as other dubious cases/issues, not just in the Aegean, but all over the region (Ionian Sea, Cretan Sea…). Having said this, the means needed to combat illegal immigration, other ill crimes, are more than necessary! In the meantime, we are sorry to witness another week of disasters all over the Med! We need a well trained and geared European Coast Guard with at least triple means to counter this situation, but above all with a clear mandate! Come on, just do it before it is too late.
  • The 7th Capital Link London Event is just approaching; just three days away and promises great debates…
  • The IUMI event begins in Hong Kong; watch this space!
  • The Athens Exchange 9th Road Show which just ended in London earlier this afternoon, was the best ever of its kind. As we have always maintain in writing via this medium or in televised interviews, the development of Greece passes through only via the Athens Stock Exchange! Viewers can see respective reporting, including live TV footage on our view. Congrats to the organisers and we are positive that soon shipping, maritime entities (ocean going companies, coastal shipping firms, short sea shipping groups, ports and terminals, shipyards and repair yards, marinas) will enter this Exchange to the benefit of all and that of Greece’s ailing economy!
  • The Countdown on WISTA-Cyprus 2014 International Conference for 7-10 October 2014 continues. The big Connecting event is on its way!
  • The London Fashion Week ended and we will report on what we have faced in another report within Allboutshipping news. Some hiccups worth  reporting…

Now you know a bit more of the issues influencing the freight and other shipping markets.

On another tone now…

  • The twelve tip for your extended summer vacation, following our last on Namibia, is: St. Petersburg whilst the weather is still favourable!

Enjoy the weekend wherever you are, but mind the weather, as amid the extended summer, particularly here in the UK, torrential rain can be the name of the …game!

You can log on here below to watch the live video:

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