The Shipping Markets: After … “euphoria”, stagnation, or correction…?

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John Faraclas

As  John Faraclas

Our forty-third weekly recapitulation of the markets and world geopolitics affecting same, tonight Friday the 7th  of November 2014 with John Faraclas of AllAboutShipping in London, come at a very crucial and tensed period when, once again, caution is the name of the game! 

As said last week, we have entered not just the worst period in world economic recession and upheavals, but also of major changes in the way we do business and this, coupled with unnecessary over-regulation will greatly affect the markets to all intents and purposes. Add the rise in extreme religious politics and see what you get…

The Markets in general are still OKish despite the volatility and a bit of a few hiccups so be careful on how you interpret this last three weeks of euphoria…

The BDI closed up just one point since yesterday Thursday the 6th of November at 1, 437 points – retaining the plus overall figure since last week’s 1, 428 points, that’s nine points up, given also that yesterday we had a fall of  28 points. This is 810 points down from last December’s closing at 2, 247 points, in other words we lag behind a mere 35.9 centum! We reiterate the view that even if positive extreme phenomena happen and the BDI reaches the 2, 000 or 2, 000 plus points, still the market will be worse off and the 2014 will be remembered as the year the super guru’s et al failed to predict…

  • The BCI closed up 49 points since yesterday 6th of November at 3, 661 points which is a plus 109 points since last week’s 3, 552 points. Mind me yesterday there was a drop of 90 points…Volatility, volatility volatility.
  • The BPI was down 22 points  since yesterday at 1, 183  points which is 50 points down since last week’s 1, 233 points. Again another size to watch although I am confident that this is the most safe size…
  • The BSI was down 5 points since yesterday at 881 points, which is 11 points down since last week’s 892 points; a bit of caution here.
  • The BHSI was down one point since yesterday at 454 points, which is 13 points down since last weeks 467 points. Caution here too…

So all in all the big sizes are up a bit and the smaller ones still on a downwards trend… We repeat: Caution, caution caution!

The wets on the other hand continued to be different:

  • The dirties and its respective index,  the BDTI was up eight points since its last closing at 833, that’s 235 points up since last Friday’s 698 points!  
  • The cleans with the respective BCTI closed down 2 points at  722 which is 19 points down since last weeks 743 points…

On the World Stage now:

The Ebola saga first as always with health issues and Carlton Cole of West Ham United launches a campaign for Ebola victims. His mother comes from Sierra Leona. Still a serious issue the Ebola.

Ukraine: Russia is accused of entering Ukrainian soil with tanks. The saga goes on…

The Middle East: The complications and dangers as we mentioned last begin now! CAUTION!  Caution in all fronts, as old scores aren’t yet settled. Israel will raze down the properties of those who attacked Jerusalem following weeks of unrest in the holy City! Restrain for all, as another major round of hostilities will be detrimental for the entire area.

Libya: Same situ and will eagerly wait stage three…

Europe: The Chancellor George Osborne’s claim to have halved the UK’s £1.7bn EU budget surcharge is challenged by his EU counterparts; A case to be closely watched…

Greece: the polls are giving a minimum four centum to opposition. Tsipras and his lot make waves, but who can trust them after the Socialist Fiasco of 1981 when Andreas Papandreou formed the first “socialist” government. The current Prime Minister has to fight hard too but the best solution to end this turmoil is for all 300 MP’s and the current establishment to go home and the aristoi to take over and save the day! All friends of Greece must help to this effect!

All in all Europe is in a financial mess and this messy environment will lead to many more troubles engulfing all nations; remember this!

In the Far East now: Does the Hong Kong saga is over or else? Meantime China and Japan are trying to ease the tension amongst them for the Diaoyu Islands (in Chinese) or Senkaku Islands (in Japanese). Time will tell, but be prepared for eruptions there too.

The Capital Link 4th Annual Shipping and offshore CSR forum last Tuesday was more than a super event on this crucial issue. Admiral Thimio Mitropoulos, IMO Secretary-General Emeritus and Chairman of the Maria Tsakos Foundation was honoured with the Capital Links’ 2014 Maritime CSR Leadership Award. Spyros Polemis’ words for Adm Mitropoulos food for thought!. The New York event on the 1st of December on the 16th Annual Greek Investors Forum is coming. The Bornozis’ faithful promises another  great debate!

“Double Jeopardy” reprised at the Kings Theatre in London last Monday was BIMCO’s best ever event of its kind! Log on to read Michael Grey’s account on the event!

The World Travel Market opening too on the same day in London’s ExCel was equally a great event with Greece smashing its previous records with 22 plus million tourists!

The IMIF’s 39th Annual Dinner on the 5th of November was yet another success. Jim Davis continues his excellent performance attracting the great and the good from all over the shipping world and beyond!

Intermodal Europe 2014 begins  this coming Tuesday the 11th of November for three days  in Rotterdam Ahoy; the promising as always event!

Cadwallader’s event by the London Shipping Law Centre is coming up on the 25th of November; hope you managed to get a seat!

On another tone now…the twentieth tip for the extended summer vacation is… the Bahamas; For lovers of excellence and leisure the right place to be; still affordable for many…!

Enjoy the weekend. ;You can log on here below to watch the live video:

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