Daily Overview of Global Markets & the SEE Region (14 November 2014)

Associations, Banking, Finance, HR, Markets, News, Reports — By on November 14, 2014 at 5:53 PM
Dr. Platon Monokroussos,  Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager, Eurobank Ergasias S.A

Dr. Platon Monokroussos, Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager, Eurobank Ergasias S.A

HIGHLIGHTS

WORLD ECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

GLOBAL MARKETS: The majority of European stock markets fell earlier on Friday, amid global growth concerns. In view of diverging monetary policies between the Fed and the ECB, the EUR/USD hovered around levels of 1.2405/08 at the time of writing, after hitting a multi-session low near 1.2400 not far from last week’s 2-year trough of 1.2357. Against a similar backdrop, the Japanese yen slid to a new 7-year low of 116.82/USD earlier today, weighed further down by speculation that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will call early general elections and delay a sales tax.

GREECE: According to Greece’s statistics agency (EL.STAT.), Q3 real GDP grew by a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.7% and increased by 1.4% relative to the same quarter a year earlier. The report, which also contained revisions to past quarterly data, revealed upward revisions to real GDP growth in the first two quarters of 2014.  Overall, the real GDP grew by 0.5% in the first three quarters of the year, with the economy exiting recession (in QoQ seasonally adjusted terms) one quarter earlier (i.e., in Q1 2014) than it was believed before the past data revisions. Overall, we currently expect full-year GDP growth to reach between 0.8% and 1.0%, exceeding an official forecast of 0.6%.

SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE

ROMANIA: The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) unexpectedly cut its key policy rate by 50bps to 8.00%, confounding market and our expectations for stable interest rates.

ROMANIA: According to the Q3 flash GDP estimate, quarter-on-quarter growth came in at 1.9%, bringing the annual rate of increase to 3.2%, well above the market’s median forecast of 1.0%YoY. On the political front, the second round of presidential elections is scheduled for Sunday.

BULGARIA: The interim parliamentary budget and finance committee approved on Thursday a draft budget update, proposed by the Council of Ministers earlier this week.

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Dailyoverview November 14, 2014

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