2015: the year to watch in shipping markets and world politics

Energy, Environment, HR, Insight, Markets, News, People and Places, Shipfinance — By on January 2, 2015 at 10:50 PM
John Faraclas

John Faraclas

Our first weekly recapitulation of the markets and world geopolitics affecting same, tonight Friday the 2nd of  January 2015 with John Faraclas of AllAboutShipping in London.

• The BDI closed earlier this afternoon at 771 points down 11 points since the closing of last year on the 24th of December 2014 (nine days ago), when the BDI stood at 782 points. Overall 2014 was 1, 465 points down since the closing of December  2013 (2, 247 points) and, percentage-wise, this is a fall of 65, 2%. As we have stated in our first two January 2014 live interviews/reporting at SBC TV in Athens (3 Jan 2014  and 10 Jan 2014), as well as in all our reporting throughout 2014, our predictions for the market fall (BDI) and the energy skyfall of the price of oil did happened!

Herebelow are the closing figures for 2014 (24 Dec. 2014):

  • BDI    782 versus 2, 247 in 2013…
  • BCI    474
  • BPI    856
  • BSI    887
  • BHSI 495
  • BDTI 862
  • BCTI 787

 

  • The BCI closed down 18 points at 456 points since the last closing per above (474) 
  • The BPI was also down twenty nine points at 827 points as per above (856)
  • The BSI was down eight points at  884 points,  which is three points down as per above (887)
  • The BHSI was down seven points at 488 points, which is seven points down as per above (495)

The price of oil continued to drop standing now at region US$ 63 and things are getting sour. On a December report it was said that below the US$ 60 North Sea Oil is unprofitable.-

You all know what happened and how the price of oil affects the economies of many nations from Russia to Nigeria, to you name it.

The shipfinancing too will be a big issue, possibly the biggest one.

The Geopolitical front continues to be bleak and many issues will bother us, in Europe particularly, with not just the Greek saga to bother us, but beyond that. There are other nations with colossal financial problems and Greece shouldn’t be seen as a scapegoat!  Greece though will be one of the focal points as the country enters a new and highly vulnerable phase which will remain until 2020. The Eurozone might survive even if there is a GREXIT! Populist parties, particularly in Greece over the last forty years proved far worse than the public expected and the greek voters should be as cautious as Ulysses with the Sirens… China is also a country to watch and obviously the USA’s policy/ies to all intents and purposes. Mr. Putin will continue to flex his muscles and Mrs. Merkel will soon come down to her senses and accept what is really best for Germany and then for Europe; not to say for the world she tries to dominate… The “African Spring nonsense” must end and ISIS must be finished off; enough with this scam. Wonder what the Chinese will do with the planed Nicaraguan Canal and how the Panamanian’s will counter; needless to say what the shipowners will do with the effect of a challenging new canal… LNG to be watched and boxes, I mean containers and conversely containerships will be another category to be watched. Liner shipping still makes waves… The Cruise Industry on a megaship tune, also another front to be watched. Environmental issues will also influence the markets and last but not least illegal immigration will, possibly together with many labour issues, dominate the headlines. WISTAs AGM and Conference in Istanbul, Turkey this coming October will be one of the world’s major events! The WISTA-Cyprus event last October in Limassol was by far one of the best ever! The IMO elections too for the Secretary-General’s post will also dominate the news and we will eagerly await the new headmaster of the shipping industry!

Overall, and as we have the free-choice in doing things in life, we have to decide whether we work for peace or we promote conflict. Never forget what we have maintained all along: “War father of all; if you don’t destroy you cannot rebuilt. This is the pitiful message from history!”. As for the world economy, with the advent of globalization its obvious that one part of the world will do well and the other will fail… We must also take into account that 2015 is the year of the ship …err the sheep, which begins on the 19th of February. A very interesting year with lots happening behind close doors…

We reiterate that our industry, the maritime world generates something in the tune of US$ 10 plus trillion dollars for the millions of tons of cargo it transports, but same will be “distributed” only amongst the most capable shipowning/shipmanagement groups to carry!  Shipping offers great and challenging jobs and careers whether on board or ashore. Our industry is the most eco-friendly industry from all modes of transport put together with 2, 7 centum of the world’s total emissions!

We will soon provide a more in depth analysis; you can also listen to our live video herebelow:

Thank you all for your support and trust in our analysis and the comments too; Happy and Health New Year to all and enjoy the weekend too!

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