Shipping Markets falling yet again and geopolitcs are also more than messy…

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John Faraclas

John Faraclas

Our forty-third weekly recapitulation of the shipping markets, their respective main indices and world geopolitics affecting same in 2015 and beyond, tonight Friday the 23rd  of October 2015, with John Faraclas of AllAboutShipping in London.

  • The BDI, the Baltic Dry Index, closed down 12 points since yesterday Thursday the 22nd of October at 774 points which is 20 points higher from last week’s 754 points confirming once again that one size cannot dictate the markets; I mean the Capers volatility. That’s far below the December 2013 closing of 2, 274 points, a difference of 1, 500 points! We are more than proud that our predictions continue verbatim to be more than accurate, despite what the gurus and analysts have said…! It is a must to advise properly  the shipping industry’s stakeholders, particularly the shipowners – listed or not, trampers or liner ones!
  • The BCI was down 51 points at 1, 461 which is 131 points up since last week’s 1, 318 points.
  • The BPI was two points down at  683 points which 39 points down since last week’s 722 points; at least not a major drop in what we believe that the Panamax is the most favourable and promising of all sizes! ,
  • The BSI was just one point down since yesterday at 648 points which is ten points down since last week’s 658 points; and,
  • The BHSI was also down, but just three points, at 362 which is 14 points down since last week’s 376  points. Again, we repeat what we said last week: what the gurus and the analysts have to say…?
  • The wets now and the last published indices: Dirties and its BDTI index was 10 points down at 739 points which is 33 points down since last Friday’s closing of 772 points,
  • The Cleans and its respective BCTI was down two points at 477; no change since last week!

The price of oil struggling just below US$ 45 per barrel. Oppps!

The Geopolitics front continues in a total mess:

  • The Migrants issue remains top of the agenda; from where shall we begin? From the high numbers of influx to Greece and Italy? From the pathetic Turkish response and if I may say continues “blackmail” of Europe’s leaders by the turkish political establishment – a practice in use for over 200 years! And what about the conditions on the Greek Islands and Mainland Greece as well as in Italy. Don’t bother what the other European Countries’ bahaviour is towards the  Migrants: shameful! Nemesis will hit us all for our behaviour and mainly policy on this issue. From the one hand you  have the humanitarian issues and from the other the break of social cohesion in all countries the Migrants go, the high risk of terrorist under cover, health issues and many more…
  • Turkey must get its act together: the region cannot suffer because of Turkey.  Germany in particular as leaders in Europe and they have to decide here and now: Are we going to accept Turkey in the EU? And when? Preconditions are simply on purpose delays…
  • Iran must conform with reality and avoid the inner Middle-Eastern explosion bad for all! Iran should avoid, if really believes in peace for its periphery, extreme provocations and support of terrorists.
  • In Greece the austerity and other troubles continue; somebody must also tell the SYRIZA faithful – ministers in particular, to get dressed appropriately or else! Enough! We are ridiculed! The important issue is that they cannot attract investments, from Greeks and Foreigners. Another issue is they cannot deliver as their promises are even above theory. They have been “sent” to continue the destruction of Greece that for 41 years the other parties with their  clientelle state begun! Shame! The Seaman’s Pension Fund (SPF) employees have sent a warning to the public, the Greek Seafarer Pensioners in particular to be on guard with the new cuts… Hands off SPF (NAT) or else!
  • In Germany and other European nations the Migrants issue will continue to dominate the news… We have to repeat this so the world wakes-up!
  • In Ukraine things continue messy as ever… The initiation “by” Kiev of further sanctions will deteriorate the more than “fragile” situ… Be prepared of assymetrical developments; the public too, particularly in Ukraine has a lot at stake…
  • China: The Crash is ante portas… the when of course …is the question…. Caution! We are closely monitoring Yi Jiping’s UK visit’s results too, but irrespective of this, the importance is what really happens inside Chine – economic-wise and politically too! The effect of China’s downturn will create havoc in many shipping companies, liner or tramp ones and shake the shipfinancing and banking system with the funds looming in the back-ground unabled to fit-in…
  • The Islamic State, must be finished off  here and now… at all costs. A thorough investigation should expose all who supply them with military equipment, further backing and means to pursue their goals. Who controls their oil trade revenues…?
  • In South Africa Zuma freezes students fees after protesters, the biggest  since apartheid ended in 1994.
  • In Nigeria the latest bombings must be taken seriously…
  • Hurricanes in Central America will cause chaos; lets hope they are mild!
  • See you at the Capital Link’s CSR event on the 3rd of November…
  • The 40th anniversary of Intermodal Europe takes place in Hamburg Messe on the 17-19 November; don’t miss it!
  • The Genocide of the Pontian Greeks was one of the best ever events at London’s Hellenic Centre  – see respective coverage.
  • The AMVER awards / event in Athens was more than a success!
  • Finally,  we continue to invite the world visiting Greece and its Islands even this time of the year; that will counter as a plus to the troubles Greece and its people are going through. We repeat that Greece is for all seasons! We will also continue to repeat the fact that the Turkish Government by allowing the traffickers to move the migrants to the Greek Islands not only spoils Greece’s tourism but will eventually create the worst explosion in the East Med… Let’s see what Europe does to Turkey and relax their leaders so we all avoid the big clash! Bluffing with the Turks as Germany and France as well as other countries in Europe and the USA do, will only make things worse. We cannot accept any Turkish blackmail!  Now try Ios and Melos islands in the Cyclades!  Otherwise, do try Argentina, one of the world’s hidden paradises! A very big country with unique natural beauties and diverse platoon which have triggered my mind ever since I was a young boy listening the elders talking about Buenos Aires and Tierra del Fuego, the Magellan Straits and Punta Arenas until we made it by ship when my late father was a Captain; then visiting for business made me fall in love. A great place for Polo enthusiasts. Elections are coming up soon too; an interesting and challenging adventure for holidays!
  • On the Tourist front, there will be plentiful to see in two weeks time at the World Travel Market in London’s Excel, so hold …your breath!

P.S: what about Cyber Crime and Cyber wars? Shipping will be in a total mess. already we believe is pathetic to be watched and your business dealings known and transferred to your competitors! Already we all have enough from Cyber viruses…

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