Another dive of the shipping markets and more than messy geopolitics…

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John Faraclas

John Faraclas

Our forty-fourth weekly recapitulation of the shipping markets, their respective main indices and world geopolitics affecting same in 2015 and beyond, tonight Friday the 30th of October 2015, with John Faraclas of AllAboutShipping in London.

  • The BDI, the Baltic Dry Index, closed down seven points since yesterday Thursday the 29nd of October at 721 points which is 53 points down since last week’s 774 points, re-confirming once again that one size cannot dictate the markets; I mean the Capers volatility which as you will read here below was 232 points down! . Now this 721 points is far below the December 2013 closing of 2, 274 points, a difference of 1, 553 points! Ultra caution!
  • The BCI was down 25 points at 1, 229 points which is 232 points down since last week’s 1, 461; what a dive! That was what we stressed above!
  • The BPI was seven points down at 675 points which is eight points down since last week when it stood at 683 points – at least not a major drop in what we strongly believe that the Panamax is the most favourable and promising of all sizes!
  • The BSI was four points down since yesterday at 629 points which is 19 points down since last week’s 648 points, and,
  • The BHSI was also down, but just two points, at 349 points which is 23 points down since last week’s 362 points. – So what next with the dry markets? High and Dry?
  • The wets now and the last published indices: Dirties and its BDTI index was up six points at 750, which is 11 points higher since the closing of last week 739 points.-
  • The Cleans and its respective BCTI was down three points at 464 points which is 13 points down since last week’s 477 points.-

The price of oil variations is of interest but still on the low side despite some gains; US$ 46 plus sound OKish for the time being…

The Geopolitics front continues in an expanding mess:

  • The Migrants issue begins now. Be on guard! Too many continue to drown in and around the Greek Islands from their saga in Turkey, as well as in Libya. A terrible winter for all Migrants begins… Shame to all politicians!
  • Turkey must get its act together and hopefully (?) after this weekend elections; Erdogan must make or break! End of the story! Shame to Turkey for blackmailing Europe on the Migrants issue. Why “can’t” the Turks patrol and control their coastline/borders?
  • Can Iran conform to reality and avoid the inner Middle-Eastern explosion as we mentioned last week and can Iran contribute to the Syrian mess? Indeed a mess which gets worse every single second!
  • The Palestinian issue must be solved as we smell trouble in the region…
  • In Greece things will get sour for all; just wait and see. With all these puppets and morons around what do you expect? Eh! The Minister of Shipping goes to China next week; let’s see if he can bring investments to the ailing Greek Economy, above all for the dockers, the ports the industry and maritime tourism!
  • As said last week: “In Germany and other European nations the Migrants issue will continue to dominate the news… We have to repeat this so the world wakes-up!” Things are getting off hand…
  • The Ukrainian saga continues…
  • China: We have warned you that the Crash is ante portas… the when of course …is the question…. Caution! How do you interpret the fact that after 35 years the Chinese can have two children in the family? If the crisis continues it will ruin China and the bigger the population – which now stands at 1.37 billion, the bigger the mess and the spill-over around the globe…
  • The world enters a recession but the politicians and their cronies ignore on purpose. The credit issue and mess from the credit cards spending have spiralled world-wide with incalculable repercussions!
  • The Islamic State awaits the result of the Turkish election… In any event we must crash them!!!,
  • In Africa and particularly in Nigeria, following last week’s bombings, banking scandals surfaces… Opsss! Who is responsible?
  • Hurricanes in Central America caused chaos…
  • See you at the Capital Link’s CSR event on the 3rd of November…
  • …then in Athens for Navigator’s 15th event on the 5th of November..
  • The 40th anniversary of Intermodal Europe takes place in Hamburg Messe on the 17-19 November; don’t miss it!
  • The Panayiotis Gogos piano recital at St. Peter’s Eaton Square was u-n-i-q-u-e! An excellent choice all together by Life Action Trust!
  • His All Holiness Patriarch Vartholomeos I visits the United Kingdom! His Holiness is a devotee of the Environment!!!!
  • Finally, we continue to invite the world visiting Greece and its Islands even this time of the year; that will counter as a plus to the troubles Greece and its people are still going through. We repeat that Greece is for all seasons! We will also continue to repeat the fact that the Turkish Government by allowing the traffickers to move the migrants to the Greek Islands not only spoils Greece’s tourism but will eventually create the worst explosion in the East Med… Let’s see what Europe does to Turkey and relax their leaders so we all avoid the big clash! Bluffing with the Turks as Germany and France as well as other countries in Europe and the USA do, will only make things worse. We cannot accept any Turkish blackmail!

Now try Psara and Kithnos; they are close too… Otherwise, do try Mexico; enjoy great specialities and drinks… Don’t forget to buy the traditional Mexican sobrero!

  • On the Tourist front, there will be plentiful to see this coming week at the World Travel Market which opens this Monday the 2nd of November in London’s Excel, so hold …your breath!

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    1 Comment

  • Dear John Indeed the dry markets are in a mess. But don’t blame the Chinese. The fact that the Chinese economy is not growing at 7% is not a sign of trouble. To make my point I remind you the size of the Chinese GDP in 2002-2007 when shipping was growing at around 10%. Many analysts at the time were sceptical whether this growth could be sustained. Now look at the GDP which is growing this year at say 6,7%. What is larger growth in real term? The 10% on say 100 billion or the 6,7% on 200 billion? But as I have seen the Chinese economy from the inside I must tell you I applaud their decision to allow the second child. It is called growth. The booms in Europe as well as the US was during the years that followed the children growth. It is a rule that wrongly educated economists do not believe in. The refugee crisis is something to watch out how it will unfold. It’s not bad if utilized correctly. But the best is to stop the war so we do not have a mis-match of populations shortly. That’s all for today.

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