Daily Overview of Global Markets & the SEE Region (Monday, November 30, 2015)

Banking, Company Profiles, Finance, HR, Markets, News, Reports — By on November 30, 2015 at 11:39 AM
Dr. Platon Monokroussos,  Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager, Eurobank Ergasias S.A

Dr. Platon Monokroussos, Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager, Eurobank Ergasias S.A

HIGHLIGHTS

WORLD ECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

GLOBAL MARKETS: This week the financial markets are mainly focused on the ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday, where the Central Bank is widely expected to deliver new easing measures to address the risk of inflation remaining below its medium-term target for longer than expected. Against this background, German government bonds retained a firm tone, while the EUR remained under pressure in European trade on Monday, hitting a fresh eighth-month low of 1.0564 against the US currency.

GREECE: In a council meeting that took place on Saturday November 28th, opposition political leaders failed to reach an agreement with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on the main proposals of the upcoming overhaul of the pension system. This item constitutes one of the prior actions required for the completion of the 1stprogramme review and the Greek government reportedly intends to submit to the Hellenic Parliament the relevant legislative law before the recess for the Christmas holidays./ Despite the downward revision in Q3 2015 real GDP growth, we continue to expect a milder than earlier expected full-year GDP contraction. We maintain our forecast for a full-year reading between -0.5% and 0.0%, mainly on the back of a more resilient than previously expected private consumption and a positive contribution from net exports.

SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE

BULGARIA: The Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) edged up to 105.7 in November, compared to 105.6 in October, driven by the improvement in the subsectors of industry and retail trade.

ROMANIA: RON markets were relatively quiet last week ahead of the Saint Andrew and National Day market holidays on November 30th and December 1st, respectively.

SERBIA: The EUR/RSD extended its recent upward momentum, rising to a fresh 9-month high at 121.30/50 late last week, amid increased EUR local corporate demand from state oil companies for payments abroad. Seasonal factors and souring risk sentiment globally may have also provided an additional lift for the pair.

CESEE MARKETS: The majority of emerging stock markets kicked off the week on a negative footing. Most CESEE assets fared better ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday.

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Daily Overview November 30 2015

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