The dire …straits of the low BDI; who will survive…?

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John Faraclas

John Faraclas

Our fiftieth weekly recapitulation of the shipping markets, their respective main indices and world geopolitics affecting same in 2015 and beyond, tonight Friday the 11th of December 2015, with John Faraclas of AllAboutShipping in London.

  • The BDI closed DOWN 12 points at 522 since yesterday Thursday the 10th of December, which is 51 points down since last week’s 563 proving our view that we do not have a sustainable market! Who will survive this low BDI and in general the low, rock bottom dry sector?   We have warned you in writing  well in advance! See now how you can swim alone…
  • The BCI was down 45 points at 779, which is 111 points down since last week’s 890 points, another major dive with volatility
  • The BPI was up, surprise surprise two points at 410 points since yesterday, but 23 down since last week’s 433 points!!!!
  • The BSI was four point down at 451 and minus 18 points since last week’s 469 points… and the…
  • BHSI was further dropping at 282 points – minus two since yesterday and minus four since last week’s 286 points , that’s a dry…season, and …climate change is on the cards!  In Paris they are having troubles on the World Conference on Climate Change and tomorrow we shall see what happens… I really wonder what sort of deal they will produce…
  • The wets now and the last published indices: Dirties and its BDTI index stood again above the 900 points barrier at 920, a minus 23 points  though and another minus of 42 since last week’s 962.  Interesting times with good rates and earning, but… be on guard…as geopolitics are dubius!
  • The Cleans and the respective BCTI was up four points at 556 which is 9  points up since last weeks 547.
  • The Ship Sale and Purchase front continues to be very interesting and promising for those with patience! Remember this, as with some bankruptcies looming in the background, you can buy low priced secondhand vessels (and excellent newbuilding contracts too), but their condition is what really matters… All in all still NOT a nice picture and many listed and not listed companies are entering the dire straits of… discontent!
  • The price of oil, the WTI, dropped to the region US$ 35… Caution or else!

On the geopolitics front, as you will hear in the video things are getting very messy, influencing the markets and in our humble view the drums of the Third World War can be heard!

  • The battle to end the mess ISIS has brought not just in the Middle East – Syria and Iraq and to the world, looks already messy and so long Turkey is not curbed, things will go to despicable ends… I guess the time to end hypocrisies’ has come. As we have already said in previous reports the architects of this mess will pay a heavy penalty one day and all we want is to avoid the collateral damage… You dead well know what I mean.-
  • Add to the above the Migrants issue and Turkey’s behaviour as well as another yet European Union hyprocrisy and see what you get: S H A M E !!!!!
  • Ukraine remains “quite” before we see the mess spill over again. Things will get the way Putin’s deal with the West goes vis-à-vis Syria, ISIS and the periphery as well as with terrorists goes…
  • Greece’s future remains in balance; a very much of a Yellowstone situ in all internal and external fronts! Those though being in the background are closely watching and will intervene…
  • In China as you read these lines the North Korean Pop Group Moranbong unexpectedly turns back without any performance, designed to improve the so called China-North Korea relations, and the Chinese tycoon Guo Guangchang and his Fosun conglomerate are being investigated; …change of …climate…. The Climate Change Deal in Paris will have to see Chine comply…
  • Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff is safe from impeachment…
  • In Venezuela Nicholas Maduro must do his best, if he can, as the opposition is not bluffing!
  • In the US the Gun Law must change and terrorists must ne curbed… Donald Trump for sure will be a good comedian… On another deal, we welcome the mega merger deal of Dow Chemicals and DuPont! This is what I call a big deal close to US$ 130 billion!!!!
  • We are eagerly waiting the Paris Climate Change announcement… It will affect shipping too!

On the events side and holidays:

  • The Lloyd’s List Greek Shipping Awards for 2015 was more than a plus for Greece’s Shipping! Well done!
  • The American Club’s annual presentation and Christmas buffet lunch announcing also the deal of the new entity American Hellenic Hull Insurance was great and we greatly missed Joe Hughes, recovering from an accident – wish him quick recovery!
  • Capital Link’s New York Event on Greece is coming up on Monday the 14th of December on “Invest in Greece” with three Greek ministers attending; and a televised message from MP Tsipras; I say I say!
  • The WISTA Hellas Annual Forum is coming up on Tuesday the 15th of December under hte title: “The future of shipping in the face of current economic and geopolitical challenges”; we love this challenges!!!!
  • Many Christmas parties, receptions and dinners are on the go now, particularly here in the British capital and why not; life goes on.
  • Finally, we continue to invite the world to visit Greece and its islands even at this time of the year; that will counter as a plus to the troubles Greece and its people are still going through; add the migrants issue. We repeat that Greece is for all seasons! We will also continue to repeat the fact that the Turkish government by allowing the traffickers to move the migrants to the Greek islands not only spoils Greece’s tourism but will eventually create the worst explosion in the East Med… Let’s see what Europe does to Turkey and relax their leaders so we all avoid the big clash! Bluffing with the Turks as Germany and France as well as other countries in Europe and the US do, will only make things worse. We cannot accept any further Turkish blackmail! It seems that Europe over the last 200 years doesn’t have a clue on how to deal with the Turks! As said in the preamble of geopolitics the situation can get off hand. Putin has a name for it… Erdogan must realise that at the end of the day, his game is over… Just remember this! Unless…

Now think about visiting Naxos island in the Cyclades and Gavdos in the Lybian Sea, just south of Crete. Still an exceptional weather all over Greece, despite a bit of rain… On the other side of Europe try Stockholm and in general Sweden still a great place to be! Outside the mighty Continents …err Europe try the long haul to Tasmania; a great place for good holidays all year round!

Have a nice and peaceful weekend and enjoy the Festive Seasons coming events!

P.S.: Don’t forget to log on on our UPCOMING EVENTS Box.

Viewers can log on herebelow and listen to the live video:


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