The BDI reposing…at 478 !

Markets, Reports, Sales and Purchases, Ship Demolitions, Ship Finance, Shipping Indices, Statistics, Stock Markets — By on December 21, 2015 at 10:19 PM
John Faraclas - picture credits by Panos Tsakos

John Faraclas – picture credits by Panos Tsakos

Keeping the …heat on, we have to say today that the state of the Shipping Markets and respective Indices   – particularly with the Dry Markets and the low BDI, has nothing to do with the imbalance between supply and demand; nothing to do with tonnage oversupply – including excesses in ordering of newbuldings, or hesitation, just in case the market picks-up and avoid scraping and conversely make quick …reach pickings, or with the lack of funds from the wrecked banks or other sources entering the shipfinance arena or with listed and non-listed companies. All these and many other parameters are known; well understood are also the figures encouraging  and suggesting patience, but patience will be for the very very few with links to the system of new business shipping world order!  And at the end of the day, “nobody” will really tell you how to survive. If this was the case there wouldn’t have been any problems whatsoever. All our academics would have a statue of honour in many cities around Planet Ocean in teaching us successful business continuity…and all of us fully agreeing and implementing what they taught us…

In academia, attendees are taught to keep with disciplines, such as budgets and market expectations and risk assessments, needless to say risk management, as projections can mostly fail, as those introducing same – brokers, analysts and gurus have no real vested interest in the shipping adventure: the last thirty years’ results, fully agree with this assumption. Remember the mid ‘80’s crisis? That left a few billion dollars mess behind and 300 owners world-wide completely vanished! The one that begun in 2008 has cost overall one trillion of dollars! Now you can see what happens when you are greedy!

Geopolitics and strong membership with the top echelon of the system will only guarantee you continuation of your shipping affairs. Remember that as Master Po said in the Kung Fu TV series: “perfect wisdom is unplanned. Perfect living offers no guarantee of a peaceful death”. Now try to interpret this in shipping!

For the record, the BDI closed earlier today just a point up at 478; the Capers’ dive continued at 512, that’s minus 12. Our favourite size the Panamaxes gained seven points and posing good…at 433. The Supras and the respective BSI remained the same, no change at 449. Finally the Handies and the respective BHSI stood at 273 points, no change.  On the Wets front the Dirties remained at 897, but the cleans and the respective BCTI gained three pints closing at 568. CAUTION!

Despite all the above, this is a promising market, a buyers market, so get out and go shopping, the shipyards are yours; go and get them. This is the shipowners’ turn! A super geared Panamax for US$ 15 mio! It could be US$ 13 mio by Easter, the resurrection of the shipowners’ market!

How well prepared is the Shipping industry to tackle a very tricky 2016? What contigency plans are in place from  all stakeholders?

From our part, the advice is: keep your cards close to your chest!

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