Interesting Scientific issues on accident probabilities

Health and Safety, IT and Communications, Marine Equipment Products and Services, Maritime Accidents, Safety and Security, Technology — By on February 10, 2016 at 5:54 PM
Geoff Roberts

Geoff Roberts

The unfortunate incident of the car carrier Modern Express, recently adrift in the Bay of Biscay, shows that even in these days of ever more considerate management of vessel operations, accidents still can and will happen. 

The definition of an accident includes the implication that the event was unforeseen and unforeseeable. But is this really the case?

Analysis by data scientists working for Democrata Maritime, a company set up under the European Space Agency’s Satellite Business Incubator, shows that the Modern Express, on this particular voyage, was statistically considerably more likely to suffer an insurance – claimable incident than the average.

Comparing voyages, ship types, ages, flags and a number of other data points over time and by voyage, Democrata Maritime showed that this voyage for this ship had an incident probability of 0.0008 compared to a standard risk of 0.0003.

These might seem like very small numbers, and that’s a good thing showing how safe shipping is these days, but the statistical difference is significant.

Geoff Roberts, CEO of Democrata Maritime, said, “this type of incident, while unfortunate, is not necessarily unpredictable in terms of probability.  Our algorithmic model could help the shipping and insurance industry to more accurately measure and insure against such risks.”

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