A Cock-up with the BDI down at 703, or what…?

Banking, Breaking News, Bribery and Corruption, Corruption, Energy, Environment, Health and Safety, HR, Maritime Fraud, Markets, Organisations, Piracy and Terrorism, Politics and Government, Safety and Security, Sales and Purchases, Ship Demolitions, Ship Finance, Shipmanagement, Shipping Indices, Stock Markets, Trade and Commerce — By on April 29, 2016 at 7:41 PM
John Faraclas

John Faraclas

The BDI ended the week down seven points since yesterday at 703 “reassuring” of tough times ahead; John Faraclas on the latest market …”twists and turns”:

So, for a second day in row the BDI dropped enhancing our prediction for tough times ahead, but more importantly strengthening our view on Uncertainty, Unsustainability and Volatility! It was though on a plus trend from last week’s 688 points (+15), so not a big damage or “concern”…

The BCI 2014 was down another 20 points, now standing at 1, 117 points, bringing-in the double question: “Why Capers are so volatile and what is yet to come”… 32 points was though the plus difference from last week’s 1, 085 points, so, don’t “complain”…

The Panamaxes followed suit on the daily basis and the BPI lost another 19 points since yesterday, now at 667 – down from the 700 points “threshold”…, but minus 79 points was the drop from last week’s 736 points. Uncertainty? Summer season’s blues? Time will tell and obviously the opening of the new Panama Canal will have “an” effect… By the way, what do you make for COSCO’s m/v Andronikos flying the Marshall Islands flag being chosen after a raffle procedure to be the first vessel to go through…?

Supras and Handies again on the plus side, but only minimal. The BSI was up four points at 582 and the BHSI just two points plus at 367! Overall from last week we experienced a 24 and a plus 13 points respectively from the 558 and 354 figures of last Friday’s the 22 of April closing.

So, all in all a downwards dry market with a lot of surprises yet to come… despite the plus symbols; the perfect oxymoron!  Remind you that a healthy market should have all its indices on a double-figure (at least) plus! So what the gurus have to say for the shipping markets seven years’ overall recession?  (the exemption being, if we can call this an exemption, that of the 4, 000 points which  was just a quick passage of a ”meteorite”  in 2009/2010, as otherwise we witnessed the absolute lows and more importantly the full collapse of the dry market after the 2, 274 points of December 2013, clocking 290 points).

The Wets also on a downwards trend; the BDTI and the BCTI losing nine and two points respectively, standing at 740 and 552 respectively. Minus 30 was the difference of the BDTI from its last week’s 770 closing and just a plus two points was the BCTI’s from the 550 points…

The price of oil, the WTI, still maintains the US$ 45 – and a bit of “plus”cap… Last week the struggled to maintain the US$ 40 …pluses level. Major developments will soon follow. A major issue that of total energy and alternative sources of energy including the cracking fracking affects the markets and is the number one issue in geopolitics, which we analyse as much as we can here below, vis-a-vis the effect they have in the shipping industry!

The Shipfinance front is at its worse point. Banks went under – some more are about to go under, Stock Markets in turmoil, Funds in disarray and things can get sour. Obviously on a personal level, I totally dislike shipping PPP’s… On another level, I wish I was a judge on all hearings having shipowners versus banks and financial institutions or the stock markets and vice versa. Money lenders, shipbrokers and shipyards and would love to have shipbrokers too and shipyards as this trio must also be checked for their “participation” in the markets downfall, …err, sky fall to all intents and purposes with a lot of collateral damage – the truth must shine. The public cannot bail-out the wrong doings of the banks, end of the story! Moreover we are watching with great interest the purchases  of many floating objects at extremely  low prices, mostly buy-backs and wonder what will this trigger… Shipping biggest scam must be aired! Indeed we have seen these practices in the past, but not under today’s scenarios – you dead well know what I mean…The figures couldn’t not encourage a profitable near or long term future, unless there is a control in the industry.

The taxation aspect and the Tax Havens status on purpose “aired” is a “tit-for-tat”. I am, as I have written down, a supporter of the Tax Heavens, but with proper clients and practices. Again I would love to be an investigator and a judge on the cases that will go to court… Nobody has nothing to fear if things and actions were done on a ship-shape basis and Bristol fashion – I mean if procedures where properly and lawfully done, as per the book!

The Bank Holiday and simultaneously the Greek Orthodox Easter break, an extended one, will be the time to pause and reflect of what mechanisms one can employ to avoid further disasters…

The Geopolitical front is where things are getting sour:

  • BREXIT? Can it happen? And if not, would Europe follow a better path and reform its status, as the way things go in all fronts and with the wrong German hegemony, the break-up looks inevitable…
  • Add the possible GREXIT… and other things to happen in and for Greece… Obviously we repeat that what happens in Greece in its entirety is and unfortunately continues to be one of history’s biggest scams for 40 plus years! If Greece is properly administered, the world’s most sustainable country to all intents and purposes, can again lead the world to the benefit of its people and humanity!
  • Add the Russian aggression and president Putin’s appetite for a stir-up of the Mighty Continent and beyond… so he defence his nation’s interests.  An escalation of provocations isn’t of course fire without smoke (on purpose written in this sequence). What can we now say to the world’s masses? Mind the communists in Moscow and its satellites? Communism is dead, end of the story!
  • Turkish theocratic (?) and hegemonic designs and dreams for Turkey’s periphery – see the way Turkey provokes and manipulates through blackmail the entire of the EU and the world at large on the Migrants issue! How sure we are of the Turkish behaviour of being an honest one or the worse humanity has ever experienced? See the daily violations of Greece’s and conversely Europe’s airspace. Indeed true neighbours must live in peace, but we wonder who are really Greece’s true neighbours – DNA has a case to answer!
  • Further down and a bit to the east Med, Israel has its own issues which must solve within, in its neighbourhood and beyond…
  • Saudi Arabia and Iran are also nations to watch!
  • Add also the delayed Cyprus issue…an issue that must be solved because it will be worse than the Yellowstone future eruption…
  • The Subcontinent needs attention too… India and Pakistan and Bangladesh… Next door in former Indochina, things can also get off hand…
  • Add the Chinese trade destruction of many countries’ economies due to the price practices “framework”… which is official and legal but pathetic given the end result in all fronts. Who really cares for exporting technology to China? How many millions are benefiting from this in comparison to the billions losing touch with a better life due to the Chines uncompetitive prices? China must change above all its political status and become a decent democratic nation, respecting above all the environment; the rest can then come up. Mind me I love this situ as it proves how many “capitalists” – what I have branded as “business hooligans” in the past, have sided with practices against the capitalist ideology and vested interest, the good one of course!
  • And what about the US Presidential Elections: Will it be business as usual or a major change?
  • And who’s to control Africa and Latin America? These southern hemisphere continents must be assisted to the full before it is too late.
  • Australia will be a good place to invest, but peace should be the issue in Australia’s Northern region…
  • And now the Korean peninsula: Cracking South Korean economy? North Korean madness or proxy provocations? Well the south didn’t prove at all being the second Japan in the region, particular in the shipping sector which includes the shipyards- the situation enfolding with the South Korean shipyards is by now more than well known! The example of Taiwan too has a lot to say… The South Korean Economy needs a revamp and a new direction! As for the North Korea situation and behaviour? Oh well see the Crystal Ball…
  • The above, the majority of happenings lead me to: Japanology ante portas? Why not after what takes place next door to Japan just across the straits of the Sea of Japan (Nihon – Kai).
  • Add also the fact of the dire straits policy and status… Who will control the world’s dire straits, the passages, the businesses! (Suez, Aden, Malacca, Kiel, Hormuz, Panama, Bosporus, is the Planet Ocean’s dire straits / passages, very important since Ulysses era!)
  • Terrorism you say? Religious fanaticism?
  • The need of improvement in Maritime Education and Training to meet both the technical and business challenges and counter on when the going gets tough! A must for proper curricula!
  • Health issues and health care a must too!
  • Ah! And the Migrants, the 99 centum is fine people…but that remaining one centum can cause THE mess… The Migrants have been all along our most important issue, and this time we have chosen to leave same at the end, to emphasise its importance and express our horror for the shameful politicians all over Europe! Wake up or else!

Have a nice evening, a nice bank holiday and Happy Easter to the Orthodox world.

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