The BDI over 700 points, but Geopolitics will have the last word…

Banking, Dry Bulkcarriers, Energy, Finance, Markets, Military, News, Piracy and Terrorism, Politics and Government, Ports & Terminals, Reports, Shipfinance — By on July 8, 2016 at 11:52 PM
John Faraclas

John Faraclas

 

With just four points plus the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) managed to reach  earlier on today the 703 points; but what does the future holds and how Geopolitics will affect the shipping markets and conversely  the BDI and its respective indices? John Faraclas’ weekly recap:

What a week that was both for the Shipping Markets – to all intents and purposes, as well as for geopolitics. Never before we had so many interesting and important events which we are sure you all have read or heard…

Here we go with our Shipping Business and Geopolitics analysis:

The BDI going above the 700 point mark and the 26 points plus since last week’s 677 was widely discussed in the Square Mile – with caution though. We need, as we numerous times have stressed, to see the BDI over and above at the 2, 000 point mark (Dec. 2013); then we can have a …break away from the misery and destruction of many companies, banks, funds, even stock markets… you name it!

The Capers and its respective BCI 2014, branded by this column as “the most volatile of all sizes and indices”, was down six points since yesterday and now reads 1, 006 – very close to the 1, 000 points threshold.  It was also 28 points down since last week’s 1, 030 – the only dry index with losses!  With less than 65 Capers scrapped during the last year, things might get sour… CAUTION (yes, with capital letters).-

The Panamaxes, our most preferred and favourite size, were up 13 points since yesterday standing at 792 points and 101 points up since last week’s 691 BPI points. Wonder if the new Panama Canal …acted as a positive factor!

The Supras’  BSI was up just three points at 647,  but gained 20 from last week’s 627!

The BHSI, our lowest of all indices, gained just two points (354) and 10 since last week’s 344. Take a deep breath!

So overall the Dry Markets weren’t as bad as initialy the stakeholders thought, but need to see the 2, 000 points! A must!

On the antipode the Wets were down. The last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) lost three (669) and two points (437) respectively, but the weekly comparison produced 22 (691) and 27 (464) points  of a downfall mark; caution!

I am sure you all wondr what’s going on in the box trade; well, consolidation is a must and above all a healthy consumers’ market, as the credit crunch continues. Austerity and bankrupt banks add to the Container Trade’s problems and affect its future despite the evidenced demand. Another big CAUTION here!

The price of WTI stood at US$ 45.12, just over US$ 4 since last week’s reported at US$ 49.28. The last two weeks following the plus modus,  the fall come to no surprise, as it looks, this was a very debatable fall…

The Ship finance front produces – and will in the very near future produce more  tsunamis with the RBS and Deutsche Bank portfolios as well many other banks, financial institutions and funds’ portfolios being extremely unproductive, better say unsustainable… being for sale, even at a piecemeal. I love this situation, as among all these ships belonging to the many wrong doer lenders, there might be a few good conditioned cheap ships! Go for it, it’s a great market to acquire tonnage and above all a great opportunity, given you don’t buy a pig in poke as the lenders behaviour suggests! The best ever buyers’ market we have seen so far… (in the last 40 years).

The Geopolitical front has been marred once again with unnecessary deaths, this time by shootings in Dallas USA. As there are more shootings in the USA than in any other nation, it is about time Americans rectify this issue; Law and Order please. – (full stop and period).

The BREXIT slowly, but steadily, dominates the world markets in and on all fronts and it remains to be seen when the Pandora’ Box finally opens up… You haven’t seen anything. It will be beyond your imagination as it is a very complex issue. Be prepared for any eventuality as there is a long way to go. For the United Kingdom at the end of the day it was the best move following the way the German-dominated Europe as being “managed” from the Brussels bureaucrats!  As I have in writing explained, I am very pro-European, but look what the German dominated Europe has done, say to Greece; next door Italy might follow suit, Spain and Portugal in dire straits, not to mention France! Indeed the European Union and in general the European Idea in its entirety is a great thing to see being fully implemented, but not under the current German proviso!

The United Kingdom as explained in other reporting has the 1, 6 billion of Commonwealth and can safely go through!

The most important issue will be which of the two women wins the nomination for becoming  the next UK’s Prime Minister; Mrs. May,   who leads by far in this race, or Mrs Leadsom,   the outsider…

My personal assessment is that Mrs. May will create a very powerful United Kingdom respected by friends and ”enemies”; as for Mrs. Leadsom, wonder why she continues the race… Is it that she has a hidden ace from the members of the Conservative Party to vote for her…??? You all must have noticed the unsolicited resignation during the presidential election candidacy in the USA of all candidates  (Democrats or Republicans) who saw their percentage wiped-off… Anyway politics are always a big surprise, but choices too are very important! In exactly two month, on the 9th of September we will all know!!!!

The USA must come to terms with reality vis-à-vis NATO, Europe and the new world order. OK, fine Russia today, even under Putin, hasn’t changed an iota and as in the past (Tsars, Soviets) will continue to look after its own geopolitical protective interests… Be on guard.

The latest NATO meeting a few hours ago in Warsaw must produce something positive and peaceful so to speak.  Let’s hope… The next six months will be very crucial…

The GREXIT is still on the cards. The day will come when Greece, due to the Brussels messy policy, will revolt in the worse possible way; just wait and see. It will come out of the blue at a time no one expects! No one can deprive the Greek people  (nor any other nation) of their dignity. Forget the politicians, they are first class trimmers; here we are talking about the middle man in the street! After nearly a decade of austerity (indeed a decade if you seat and study what happens since 2006 in Greece), we are still back in square one. I will say this in writing: Why should my 94 (ninety-four) years old Mother  (a master mariner’s widow) and many other eldery people in particular have their pension cut from successive Greek Governments and their tax sky-rocked? Expect a Nemesis style of revenge; shame to all politicians, SYRIZA not excluded. A SYRIZA minister told me it was the previous regimes and governments who did it (the pension cuts); fine. Reinstate them then  Mr. Minister… Eh! E N O U G H !!!!

Did I here you say NEXIT?

The Migrants issue continues not just being the number one issue, but it dominates all sorts of politics local and international. What a messy situation the moron politicians and their diplomats produced! We like a live discussion on any A1 class TV station and we can take on them!

The Migrants prove how ethics and democracy operate today! Shame on you all; we mean what we write on this issue.

On top of everything else the Chilcot report in reality ridiculed Tony Blair!!!!!! Mr. Blair cannot and will not escape from his own Nemesis! You see, it makes a big difference when you are a prime minister and you haven’t done your military service, “not” to understand what you’re doing, willingly or unwillingly! There should be a must, a proviso so to speak for all male PM or presidents etc. to have complete a minimum of military service so as to understand what’s a war like and what this entails and not to rely on “experts” and spin doctors…! What you don’t know, you cannot control! Now don’t tell me about women and war…

We live in a very difficult and continuously changing geopolitical environment and proceeding further from the above paragraph, do please note that British troops and others forming a multi-nation NATO force,  will be deployed in Eastern Europe as a powerful show of force and solidarity by NATO in the ever increasing Russian intentions for the entire Baltic region… and beyond!

The ever dangerous Black Sea and Middle East regions continue to give more tremors.

The ISIS saga must end; we leave it too late or in my humble view we don’t see the political will be replaced by the Armed Forces will, the military so to speak will! Come on we had enough from the ISIS and all its likes world-wide. Finish them off!

On both issues the MIGRANTS and the ISIS and all that entails this sad and inhumane reality, the European Union proved totally inactive! A pathetic policy. Instead showing a force of solidarity, cracks appeared and frontiers closed with the well-known results and harsh realities!!!

The Terrorists latest massacres  in  Iraq (Bagdad) and Bangladesh (Dhaka) is yet another warning, so let’s end this despicable situation! Destabilising the world for the benefit of a few political  and business hooligans will backfire, as they don’t know how to do it excellent and the public is getting to know them…

Last week we mentioned once again the Pesters,  Pesters of any kind. We bring this matter up as despicable things happen engulfing us all and sometimes the authorities too get wrongly involved! Meantime we bring you the issue of  fraudsters, particularly those committing bank fraud and pestering individuals and companies. The banking world lacks intelligence and resources on this issue in the same way we lack intelligence and organisation to protect the airports, ports and terminals – see the Brussels airport massacre and have your own conclusions! Using by hacking somebody’s banking details in 2016 and the banks still maintaining the wrong defence / counter policy, leaves the public to take the matter to its own hands and seek to find the perpetrators and call both banks and criminals  liable for  wrong-doing! When first class and well-known brand names are involved, then you have to act accordingly!!!

Let’s go back to the other side of Atlantic: we all expect Mrs. Clinton to win the US Presidential elections in November  and become the first ever woman president of the USA, despite some hiccups. We need though a clear message, a brief programme from her (and Mr Trump as you never ever know) on their intentions to counter and tackle properly and pragmatically the Planet Ocean’s problems and coming new issues! You see, being in this day and age the president of the USA you are the World’s number One leader and your actions do not only affect 300 million Americans but 7.3 billion people!

We are very sceptical of the continues mess from Gibraltar to Afghanistan, from the Baltic States down to the Horn of Africa  and of course to other regions and hot spots on Planet Ocean as these greatly affect our Shipping Industry and its human recourses! We need, as wrote last Friday, a settlement of the Israeli- Palestinian question and also we need to see Turkey and its leaders comply with the rules of ethics for having the neighbourhood and periphery in a peaceful situation. This is a warning as things might go off hand.

The Energy issues are interwoven with all above. So let’s see the pipelines how they change the landscape of Geopolitics… OPEC might have to side with the non-OPEC strategy… That’s a hint for many receivers…

The Cyprus thorny issue must be settled.

The entire Middle East and Caucasus region too must be properly administered.

With the Syrian saga, part of the wider Middle Eastern problem, continuing to give further socks, we wonder where we are heading to…

We are also very alarmed with the proxy situations in the Far East particularly with the latest incident in the Korean Peninsula were the North Koreans went on to test a ballistic missile lunched from a submarine….  For a start Japan might go to lengths to protect its interests, and rightly so!

Lastly let’s see how the Chinese will organise their finances, their economy as this greatly affects the World’s Economy and in particular the World’s Transport, that is to say: SHIPPING!

For one more week, the World continues to be on fire; be on guard for dramatic events and changes with incalculable repercussions for all. Never forget that War is good even for the warring ones!

Lastly our concerns goes to the World’s dire straits: Suez, Panama, Kiel, Constantinople (Istanbul), Malacca, Hormuz, Gibraltar. If something happens they will be the most affected ones…

On a better tone we expect to watch some great soccer 3rd place and final in France for the EURO 2016, some nice finales in Wimbledon and Sailing races of course!

Many from the above issues as well as a few more entertaining ones where discussed in the great event that took place earlier on tonight  at the IMO, that of the 43rd Anniversary of Independence of the Commonwealth of the Bahamas.  Ink your diary, plan your vacation and or holidays there; have the time of your life in these unique islands with a bit of Greek flavour and history. The locals hospitality is second to none! The Bahamian Archipelago is unique!

We wish all our viewers worldwide a nice weekend and we look forward your written comments!

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