A warning on BDI’s downfall and explosive geopolitics…

Containers, Dry Bulkcarriers, European Union, IMO, Markets, Military, News, Oil Industry, Organisations, Shipping Indices, Statistics, Stock Markets, Tankers — By on July 21, 2016 at 7:18 PM
John Faraclas

John Faraclas

Never ever before the shipping markets and conversely the shipping industry was faced with such an uncertainty with geopolitics being as explosive as never before totally affecting all sectors; John Faraclas’ warning report:

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was down another  ten points closing at 726 points; approaching on the reverse the 700  point threshold. Caution!

  • The Capers’  BCI 2014 lost 31 points stading at 906 points…
  • The Panamaxes’ BPI down 22 points reading 850 points…
  • The Supras’ BSI at 701 points – down just one but still  down following a “considerable” plus period…
  • The Handies were  “different” and  gained three points,  with the BHSI standing at 379!

Be on guard as we warn you of bad times ahead, except of course of those with ample cash reserves and a good balance sheet – the only ones to manage, even with difficulty to go through – listed or not…! For those who never fear to negotiate and have done their job per their instinct, experience and good acquisitions, a good fortune awaits them; we are witnessing a couple of companies spearheading the markets!

  • The Wets with mixed feelings – a fortnight of reverse results; the Dirties and the respective BDTI was down yet again seven points at 592 and the Cleans saw its BCTI gain nine points!
  • The Containers still on low levels; another category becoming for the many a liability; again very few will go ahead, despite the demand for boxships! The new Panama Canal stands firm for improvement n the TEU/FEU trade, but there is an actual overcapacity, a world recession, the credit crunch still exists and the masses become poorer; check it! Add the Chinese slowdown…

Once again we reiterate the view that, despite all the above, this is the best ever buyers’ market, the best momentum; try to capitulate if you have the weaponry!

The price of WTI stands as these lines are written just below the US$ 45…

Meantime here is the first edition of the Country Overview Report by VesselsValue, which has been put together by its analysts on the Isle of Wight and in London. They are going to look at a particular issue in shipping by geographical region. This month they are taking a look at the biggest spenders and the best negotiators: Biggest Spenders in Shipping – UK Ger NL

On the Geopolitical front now: the MIGRANTS, Migrants of all forms continue to be the number one issue; end of the story! We are seeing even “military” migrants trying to cross over from the Turkish Anatolian coast to the Greek Islands…

The Turkish measures according to the European Union are unacceptable. What state of emergency is this one, eh? This new Turkish saga will destabilise not only Turkey but also many countries in its close proximity… As we have said numerous times: you haven’t seen anything yet! Following also a part of the opposition, the nationalists to accept the situ for other reasons, it seems to me that the world’s first official hard core islamist nation makes waves….Where do we base this thinking/findings? Simply go through all the available in the media videos and you will see the hard core Islam making waves… An excellent show of “no fear” by president Erdogan to warn of yet another Coup coming even in his statements today… As said recently the USA must intervene and maintain NATO’s momentum as well as continue its vital operations from the Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey against the ISIS et al; what’s up there please?? A power cut still on… Come on the public is not that naïve…

Where are the 42 Turkish military helicopters? Where are the 14 Turkish warships? Where is he head of the Turkish Navy?

Time for the UN, the EU and the Americans in particular to intervene as the issue with theTurkish academics, academia in general is above any pogrom we have ever heard of.

“Wonder” what president Putin’s next move on the situ  will be… given that he is Syria’s protégé and also Russia has vested interests in the entire region. Russia still has open fronts in Ukraine and will defend every single inch to the end and by all means; remember this.

Be warned of sudden events in the entire region; they might erupt like the Icelandic Volcano  Eyjafjallajökull; remember you couldn’t fly and this non-flight issue amounted to nearly US$ 7 billion. The Turkish saga will cost at best a modest US$ 20 trillion if things continue to go in this pace and “style”!

Greece is also watching closely the events, like all the nations in Easter Med, the Balkans and the Black Sea…

You might recall last year on the 9th of July our intervention – at the Energy Conference at the Grand Bretagne Hotel in Athens, how we tackled the issue when we countered to the Russian speaker about the pipelines that pass through Turkey and Greece, when he called them the “Pipelines of Peace”; you might like to recall even how we took by surprise the then Greek Government’s Energy Minister Lafazanis on this issue! Its all, thanks to the Twelve Greek Gods, on tape for the record!

The BREXIT issue continues and I believe Mrs. May’s first encounter with both Mrs. Merkel and president Hollande was more than successful, despite media announcements by the Germans and particular the French, “urging/pressing” the British to do the BREXIT chop chop; now they “understood” that it takes some time… Come on, we had enough from this continental German-French melodrama… By the  way log here to read the first ever BREXIT shipping debate!

The Greek saga and yet another possible GREXIT, despite statements for otherwise by Greek PM Tsipras… The harsh reality will give the appropriate response…

The state of emergency in France is serious as well as similar measures in other European countries..

Let’s go at the other side of the Atlantic, a bit south to begin with, in Brazil: financial scandals give tremors and more importantly the arrest of ten islamists terrorists who planned to cause havoc and death in Rio’s Olympics…which are about to begin in two weeks-time… Caution; ensure all in order!

In North America, in the USA,  Donald Trump accepted officialy the Republican Party nomination. Mrs. Clinton, the Democrats darling and the one that leads the pools, is ante portas, watch this race!

That’s all for today; have a nice evening. Tomorrow it is another day!

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