The Markets: knowing when and how to use cut and run*…

European Union, Markets, Military, News, Politics and Government, Ship Finance, Shipping Indices, Stock Markets — By on September 9, 2016 at 3:11 PM
John Faraclas

John Faraclas

The seasonal surge for iron ore in reality means nothing for a sustainable market that all stakeholders look for, whether dry or wet; geopolitics and economic catastrophes for not having a risk assessment plan will soon become cataclysmic. John Faraclas’ weekly market and Geopolitics recap:

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) closed earlier on today 12 points higher than yesterday at 804 points, which is the first weekly plus following the 720 points since 26 August! With 84 points plus – in theory this creates a positive market development, but…

The Capers, more than volatile as never before, gained 88 points since yesterday and the BCI 2014 stands now at 1,566 – 512 points higher than last week’s 1,054 points. But as said in the preamble above: can we rely on seasonal surge or demand of say iron ore or whatever to have a sustainable market? The reply is simply: NOT!!!

The Panamaxes gained just three points since yesterday with the BPI reading 658 points  – , which is 14 points higher than last Friday’s 644. Still under caution, despite being as we numerous times stressed our favourable size!

The Supras’ BSI down yet again at 688 points – minus six since yesterday and down 33 since last Friday’s the 2/9 when it stood at 721 points… Do check the plus modus since early August and the droppings since the beginning of September and see what’s up and what else yet to come!

The Handies too on a falling modus. The BHSI lost one point since yesterday standing at 419 and 22 points since last week’s 432…

Now you can see why one size doesn’t fits all…

The WETS on a daily and weekly basis were also down. The last published BDTI and BCTI lost one and five points respectively – now reading 536 and 416 points. The weekly result was higher – 22 points down for the Dirties (from the 5)14) and lower for the Cleans which lost 25 points (from 441 to 416!)

The WTI fluctuations are on the rising side but still controlled and as you read these lines it stands at US$ 46,49… Caution given last week’s UD$ 44,23!

The Hanjin saga releases the Aeolian winds and then the Pandora Box of Revelations with too many skeletons in the cap-board of scam and fraud on the shipfinance and risk assessment front will follow. As the title of this report implies, the Cut and Run “proviso” should have been wisely and timely implemented! The daily shipping as well as the international news are covering every hour the world’s 7th largest container company’s mess!

Please find attached herebelow VesselsValue’s August Analyst Report  link containing Value analysis, Total second hand S&P activity, Newbuilding activity, Demolition activity and Charter rate analysis for each ship type:

VV August Market Report

In the geopolitical front, which you can read later on the first update, things continue to become messy with incalculable repercussions in all fronts. Take cover! Many will face the music… which of course affects the shipping trade on Planet Ocean! The Migrants major issue, Europe and the World following the BREXIT vote, the US election, Syria and in general the “uprising” from Gibraltar to Afghanistan  and Eastern Europe (Ukraine) to the Horn of Africa, the Korean Peninsular coming earthquake and who should be nuked… as well as many other issues including terrorism, ah! and the  Greek drama/tragedy coming explosion….

Here comes the update:

The MIGRANTS issue, our number one issue and priority goes from worse to worse. Officials aren’t  even adequately informed or they are playing somebody else’s tune. The way the entire matter stands is far beyond reality. Greeks know more than well to look after their frontiers. The fact of the matter is how come Turkey “allowed” 4.5 mio MIGRANTS (you read correct: four and a half million MIGRANTS) enter its territory and then keep a blind eye, even encouraging its own traffickers to usher them to Greece and its islands in particular and then conversely to Europe; end of the story. The Europeans succumb to Turkish blackmail and that’s all. Irrespective of this and what happens, indeed MIGRANTS are all humans and must be protected. They will be better off stay in countries within a close proximity from where they emanate from.

The War in Syria continues relentlessly and let’s see if there is going to be an agreement of disengagement there. Can the Americans and Russians do it? On top of everything else you have Turkey intruding in northern Syria under the proviso of self- defence and that of ISIS but also attacking the Kurds there. If the international community and in particular the Americans don’t stop Turkey as we have written before, expect more and more mess in the entire region!

Terrorism goes on and in France things will get worse. Its great to arrest Terrorists and avoid more trouble, but France will continue to be targeted by Terrorists men or women, doesn’t matter: they are all terrorists!  Smash them or else!.

Talking about Terrorism, this coming Sunday it will be the 15th Anniversary from the Terrorists attack in New York, Washington and elsewhere in the USA. These despicable events must alert and unite us all in the fight against terrorism and we must all learn how to avoid these atrocities. We have to remind you once again that we are very much concerned and have an extra sensitivity on the issue of terrorism as many crew members, engineers and office personnel travel around the globe boarding ships for work and NOT for pleasure and they are also targeted. Shipping is the most important of all industries as it keeps Planet Ocean going! The Shipping fraternity will retaliate if there is any jeopardy against its people; never forget this! We care about our people, about all Seafarers!

BREXIT continues to be after the MIGRANTS issue, the most important one. For a start, as until now has been proven, no one was ready to tackle such an outcome. Europe in particular is in a total mess. Who is right and who is wrong we all know, but do not wish to accept. The United Kingdom will be in our view well off, better of with its 1,6 billion people in the Commonwealth and it is self- understood that Europe will make business with the UK whether they like it or not!

Greece will imminently enter a very difficult period. I guess that GREXIT will be a very good idea. You need though a plan, an appropriate plan and make the enemies of Greece dance syrtaki; you dead well know what I mean – of course NOT in the way Alexis Tsipras was dreaming before becoming Greece’s PM… Greece needs just one man to lead and deliver for its people. The rest is pure nonsense!

North Korea will soon be nuked or else… Its leader though has a backing and same should stop as otherwise Japan and others in the region won’t stay put!

The Rio Paralympics are on with China in the lead and the United Kingdom securing the second place like the Olympics! Shame not to have the Russian in, but Nemesis knows best…

In New York the Fashion week is on and London’s too is coming up!

On Tuesday the 13th the Capital Link Maritime Forum event in New York takes place; all the eyes are there for results!

In Malta, the countdown for its first ever Maritime forum has begun earlier this week and for those who haven’t as yet ink their diary, the time has come. Four days, the 3rd to the 6th of October promise excellent speeches and debates!

The US elections in two months-time will prove very exciting. None of the two candidates has a clear or near a clear winning percentage.

*Cut and Run: Escape in a hurry; to prevent a bad storm damaging your ship at anchor, the hemp anchor rope should be cut and the ship allowed to run before the wind. Viewers are invited to interpret this in its entirety of what happens in shipping following the warning of 2008!

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