Don’t count on Capers “euphoria”…

Comment, Energy, Environment, Insight, Markets, Military, News, Piracy and Terrorism, Reports, Ship Finance, Shipfinance, Shipping Indices, Statistics, Stock Markets, Tankers, Trade and Commerce — By on September 20, 2016 at 11:44 PM
John Faraclas

John Faraclas

With another 111 points plus the Capers “boosted” the BDI with 29 plus points; explosive Geopolitics can cause major tsunamis….John Faraclas’ daily recap:

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) gained 29 points and now stands at 865 thanks to the Capers’ BCI 2014 which gained 111 points and now reads 1,964! Despite this “euphoria” which affects only one size, be ultra-cautious.

The Panamaxes BPI on a plus seven points since yesterday now reads 657, and the gap with the Capes is evident; caution

The Supras lost one point and the BSI reads 660; so now with this figure you get the message better!

Finally the Handies gained just one point with the BHSI standing at 417.

Not a Dry market to induce positive and encouraging prospects – as many expect, for a recovery which as we have stressed begins with the BDI above the 2,000 point mark and to be more precise: above the 2,274 points being the level at the end of 2013! We observe and advise caution as the financial, commodities and world recession coupled with uncertain geopolitics, dictates otherwise!

The Wets now and the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) were 566 (plus five points) and 387 (plus four points) respectively. Still very low levels!

The Container Trade looks battered following the  Hanjin mess; other sectors too are grossly affected.

The BWMC makes waves and that’s good!

The Price of WTI stood just above the US$ 44… a sign that something is moving on… Again, WTI can fluctuate between US$ 28 and US$ 100 …e a s i l y; it is a matter of who is launching further uncertainty!

The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), might wound down its shipping business but not sell it. Five Billion Dollars worth of its loan portfolio – Three billion involving Greek loans, it might look in our view as a major liability, but it has a future; think guys twice out of the box! The secret lies in knowing when to weather the perfect storm!

There is a lot of gossip for more restructuring of many shipping entities finances. Caution and Risk assessment should be observed given what has happened over the last 20 years of this long bad shipping oval – cycles are dead!

We maintain our view that this is, despite the figures and the Geopolitical mess, the best ever buyers’ market! We also add, that this is also the beginning of the market for the very very very few!

On the Geopolitics front now:

The MIGRANTS saga continues like a soap opera series; a very shameful situation for which the politicians world-wide are to blame 100 centum.

The videos and news from the Greek Island of Lesvos in the eastern Aegean Sea, just off the Anatolian coast of Turkey following the arson there, makes the round on Planet Ocean! SHAME! The Greek Ministry of Shipping intents to send a ship to house the MIGRANTS there. If there are more, a second vessel will be send. Then we will wait to see another mess on board…

In Chios the meeting at the Mayors Building with all local authorities – mainly those of the Municipality ended in a deadlock – yet again.

In New York, Greece’s PM Alexis Tsipras is “trying” but he is both not capable and his advisors null and void vis-à-vis the appropriate method and tactics to be implemented by the international community. They haven’t briefed him accordingly! Having stranded MIGRANTS in Greece due to the closure of the frontiers as PM Tsipras claims – and rightly so, is what we all accuse Europe’s political leaders of being trimmers! Equally, the European Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos – coincidentally Greek, is trying, but so long as you have Turkey’s blackmail in full force, what do you expect?  The major powers are being coned by the Turks and advisors’ wrong methods, possibly on purpose to create havoc in the entire region and beyond.

Mrs May, the British PM’s view to ensure all is well from the danger of “Unmanageable population movements” says it all on the MIGRANTS saga! She was more than right to stress the fact of the looming dangers vis-à-vis the MIGRANTS as hteir movement is not in the best interest of the MIGRANTS themselves as they become exposed to dangers and exploitation, the counties they leave, the countries they travel through and the countries they arrive at! Poor Mrs. Merkel betting on the wrong horses; yes horses in plural!

President Obama has got it wrong, with all due respect, on the MIGRANTS Issue. With 50 (fifty) countries taking 360,000 Refugees – that’s how he terms them, is one thing. What about ten million ready to entre Europe now – Four million are waiting only in Turkey and four in Libya and the other North African med nations; come on…

Now, just to put you all in the picture, and sincerely hope somebody to contradict us, but according to info we have, there are some issues which the international public is unaware off, say in Chios for example, where:

1. Following the “abortive” Coup there,, the Turkish officials supervising the return of MIGRANTS to Turkey, have been recalled!!!!

2. The EU’s officials supervising the Asylum applications is not moving in the anticipated pace as those on the island really don’t bother for the process to “flow” as it should!!!

3. The Greek Government has opted NOT to deter the illegal entry…and this is obvious from what is happening – what a palaver…

4. The respective Minister cannot tackle the situation – totally ignorant! It is crucial to avoid and protect the fact of the percentage of MIGRANTS not to exceed the five centum. The social cohesion is already broken.

The Locals on Chios have no alternative but to demonstrate for the MIGRANTS to leave peacefully from their Island. They wish to see on the other hand a well organised humane camp which must include a centre to look after the criminal MIGRANTS – who demonise all there and push the buttons of anarchy, with the hope to see better days there as these criminal elements’ “task” is to create an explosive situation! NGOs, must be also brought into account as their role exceeds the scope! There are hundreds of infants and unaccompanied children which the Chians are more than willing to offer their hospitality on their island.

These are difficult decisions to implement, but the right ones and we can entertain any Tom Dick and Harry, any Jane, Linda and Mary live on TV! A common policy is urgently needed before things go far worse with incalculable repercussions! This is more than a warning!

In Syria now, overnight there has been another mess with the attack on the UN Humanitarian Aid Convoy. It really “doesn’t matter” following what has happened there the previous two nights! Apologies is one thing, reality yet another. But for the shake of good order we need to have an apology from those who have done it! Nothing will change of what happened. Unfortunately, it is over!

ISIS is our target, let’s finish them off! This is the first message. The other which applies for all, is NOT to betray the forces there supporting the fight against ISIS for Turkey’s shake and the main two powers patrons: The USA and its allies and Russia and its allies. We can foresee more mess unless people and officials from both sides come down to their senses before we all come to our knees. Imagine if there is a conflagration in the region and the Suez Canal closes? Eh! Our shipping interests come first. Our Human Resources with mainly the Seafarers too!

Time to end up this mess from Gibraltar to Afghanistan and from Eastern Ukraine to the Horn of Africa. Further destabilisation in these regions can cause hell! By the way, hell is for all!

Good job done by the French police who have detained 8 men following the attack in Nice’s seafront on Bastille Day which resulted in the murder of 86 people. Let’s see their link with the attacker Mohamed Lahouauej Bouhlel!

In the USA and particularly in New York, Ahmad Khan Rahami has been charged for planting bombs there and in New Jersey a few days ago! CAUTION! Wonder what the candidates in the race to the White House have in mind for all these happenings!

At the other end of what happens in the USA, we are wondering why all this mess with Brangelinas break up! Now that’s too much to make headlines given what Planet Ocean goes through and the recent atrocities in the USA. Happy couples die together! Being a famous couple is one thing, happy yet another!

Meantime current president, Barak Obama urged China to reduce overproduction of industrial goods as China has been condemned of unfair practices by firms overseas for dumping products at extreme low prices in their internal markets! This affects and will further affect shipping – bulk and container cargoes… Can a level playing field be established? Wonder… as many fear the overcapacity of ships – personally I don’t, and now these people will go nuts with this news…

In North Korea Kim Jong-un continues his various tests, this time his forces carried out a “successful” ground test of a new rocket engine capable enough to contribute in launching satellites. China and the USA are trying to ease things down particularly with his 5th nuclear test. The UN Secretary General must act now!

BREXIT issues continue; an interesting point is that of the London Fashion Week which projected the soft power that Britain seeks following the EU Referendum. It is equally important as politics as this is the projection of British export power and influence; In Fashion as in politics and Business remember: Class is never out of Fashion  …err Style! Things are moving smoothly for the BREXIT saga; it’s Europe who has the problem!

In Greece, things are turning sour for all and wonder where this “civil war of words and actions” will lead to! Envy and Revenge, coupled by foreign intervention and control, rules the day. Expect major upheavals in Greece and very soon! Make it a GREXIT! As these lines are written, the 11th ATHEX London Show is on; let’s capitulate on it!

In Somalia 300,000 children are in danger from malnutrition. What are we doing for this in yet another war torn country??

Interesting events coming up; register and ink your diary accordingly:

The LSLC/BIMCO event at Clarksons Platou tomorrow on NYPE in the City…

The Malta Maritime Summit 3-6 October 2016….

The Capital Link 9th Shipping, Marine Services and Offshore Forum 5 October in London…

The  Safety4Sea Conference and Awards also on 5 October in Athens…

The Danish Maritime Fair 25 to 27 October in Copenhagen…

The Capital Link 6th Shipping and Offshore CSR Forum 2 November in London…

The Intermodal 2016 in Ahoy Amsterdam 15 – 17 November…

Will advise you for more events, but do please log on in the Upcoming Events herein and see some of  the future events  available / taking place worldwide.

Have a nice evening and be on guard for every eventuality!

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