The Markets and Geopolitics: Lighting never strikes twice…

Associations, Banking, Markets, Military, News, Oil Industry, Piracy and Terrorism, Reports, Shipfinance, Shipmanagement, Shipping Indices, Statistics, Stock Markets, Tankers — By on September 23, 2016 at 9:14 PM
John Faraclas

John Faraclas

The Market “euphoria” doesn’t have the anticipated continuity as some thought, particularly when the Capers had a minus six points today given its 271, 154, 111 and 173 points daily gained from last Monday the 19th of September until yesterday the 22nd of September; what a …hiccup that was! The Geopolitical front, as per our prediction, creates havoc for all. John Faraclas’ weekly recap:

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) closed up by only four points since yesterday at 941 which is 141 points plus since last week’s 800 points, thanks to the Capers and only the Capers!

The Capers volatile rally ended with the BCI 2014 standing today at 2,383 points, down six from yesterday but up 703 from last week’s 1,680 points.

The Panamaxes and its respective BPI was up 22 points at 722 and 72 points plus since last Friday’s 646. Not bad but also nothing much to celebrate comparing the Capers’ rise!

The Supras also on a plus modus; the BSI was up just three points since yesterday(at 671)  and 11 since last week’s closing (660)…

The Handies also on a steady bases. The BHSI …gained just one point since yesterday (now at 421) and six since last week’s 415…

So wonder what will be the vexed question on the dry markets; we leave it to our viewers!

The Wets with their usual ups and downs; mainly the Dirties had some luck but the Cleans continue to look down… The last published BDTI and BCTI stood at 606 (up four) and 380 (down two) respectively. On a weekly basis, Dirties were up 51 points (from 555) and Cleans down six (from 396)…

The price of WTI was three hours ago at US$ 45.92 up from last week’s US$ 43.10, but it might go a bit down – that’s just a feeling…

The Container Market is the one which needs much attention being the trickiest sector of all; as in all ships types and trades, the regulatory side here needs attention too. We foresee at least one more major container company to collapse; watch this space!

All in all the situation in the entire shipping industry needs an innovative approach to counter to the present multitude of market risks, the prolonged seven plus years in crisis / world recession creating uncertainty and this approach should be applied by all of today’s shipping leaders / stakeholders who obviously despise the current market status quo and wish their companies to remain afloat. If today’s shipping leaders are afraid to introduce radical innovations, things might get sour, despite the 9 plus (nine) billion tonnes of cargoes available to be carried and which will continue to increase for the foreseeable future. In our view, it also the issue of over productivity of China damping goods here and there and creating problems to local markets and not that of the overcapacity portrait by analysts. The Hanjin saga must teach us a lesson! Now add the Geopolitical issues which need much attention and they must all get advised on how to tackle many issues from cyber-crime to piracy and terrorism and blockades…

The Geopolitical front continued to produce more shocks and the situation worsens week by week… Caution!

The MIGRANTS saga become the number one problem on Planet Ocean and the European Union with the Mighty Continent in tatters. The combination of infiltrating Europe and other parts of the globe with terrorists which mingle among the MIGRANTS and get Scott-free into Europe as MIGRANTS, Refugees or Asylum seekers, despite the many warnings and the apathy from the political establishment, reminds me of the Soviet spies’ case in Hampstead in the late fifties with Fuchs caught and put on trial in 1959. Kuczynski and his sister Ursula, codenamed Sonya fled to East Germany the day before his trial. There were warnings and several opportunities for the team of these spies to be arrested, but… In the same way there have been warnings and continue to be that many of the MIGRANTS etc., are Terrorists and there should be an end to this mess. Don’t ask about the repercussions with respect destroying the social cohesion… Turkey is the nation responsible, despite being a NATO ally, as it allowed them to enter in the first place its territory! The rest you know and what happens. It is despicable for example to accuse the Greek people, particularly the islanders from Greece’s eastern Aegean Islands for not wanting them to remain in the so called Hot Spots, as beyond the normal burdens arising from MIGRANTS, other more dangerous issues loom in the background; wake up!

The atrocities from all sides continue relentlessly in Syria with no sign for peace… accusations fly from each side of the ten warring amongst them functions and the price paid by the Syrian people; one day I bet you it will backfire. So, as mentioned in past reports, what do we need the diplomats for? On the other hand, imagine that we cannot deal with ISIS (Daesh) and smash them here and now, because we are so much divided. Shame! Nothing matters much and very little matters at all…

The BREXIT issue entirely rests with the Prime Minister. We all await to read Mrs. May’s forthcoming decisions and her agenda. In the meantime Europe is “pressing”, one way or another, the British government but wonder who is really in trouble. For sure the next European Union MEP’s election matters much… Until then, nothing from the “anticipated” problems affects so far the United Kingdom and its people by their decision to vote for BREXIT; nothing has happened and nothing will happen. There is the odd of vacancies in the City, yes, but this is minimal. We hope and believe that BREXIT, if appropriately handled, will be in the long run more than favourable for the British people! We are “eager” to hear the announcement of who is the winner in the Labour’s party elections and for sure Mr. Corbyn will win with nearly 58 to 60 centum majority, but wonder what he can offer to the British people. Labour under the circumstances has the wrong policies for a viable government as the people will again re-elect the Conservatives, particularly now that Mrs. May knows best what to do in comparison with others!

In Greece, if the government succumbs to rumours that the IMF is pressing to cut wages and pensions, as well increase taxes and continues the strangulation, the Tsipras lefties and their coalition regime, will fall earlier than anticipated! GREXIT is the only way out, not that the European Union and its concept is a bad thing, but the way same wrongly enfolds and treats in an inhumane way the Greek people and others, must have the appropriate response by Greeks AND all others suffering.

A week more or less in the USA for the UN gathering there and meetings with American officials gave Tsipras the chance but he doesn’t know how to handle same! Pity! We believe that sooner or later we are going to have major surprises and developments in Greece; keep an eye and be on guard! I don’t take the pollsters findings veritable, although the truth of the matter is that SYRIZA’s popularity is falling, whatever Mrs. Merkel et al do to support their man in Athens; that is Alexis Tsipras!

One very important issue that was aired over the last 48 hours, a dreadful one, is the YAHOO saga! We need to see those responsible seat on the dock, ridiculed and have YAHOO pay to all the damage. In this way all e-mail providers etc etc, get their act together. It is of paramount importance for the entire shipping industry to have safe communications, and as said back in the Millennium in writting, hackers and business hooligans can inflict an incalculable damage; take for example a fixture. You are negotiating and these  “clever” dicks steal your email exchanges and take the otherwise confidential business / charter and you wonder what happened and being left out…

The 11th Annual Greek roadshow event in London’s Bloomberg headquarters by the Athens Stock Exchange (ATHEXGroup), which ended yesterday, was more than a success and the message well received! Under the theme: “Greek Capital Markets speeding up the real economy” this briefing session hope to alert both Greeks in Greece and abroad as well as all interested investors given Greece’s opportunities. We believe and on many occasions in the past we have stressed the fact that only with the enhancement of Athens Stock Exchanges fortunes and the support from all, Greece and the Greeks can become better off. Be confident!

The ‘Enterprising Diasporas: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain” by RELOAD’s Greece event, took place at the Rooms on Regent’s Park – RCOG and was a great success.

In the USA, the Election campaign leading to the election of the next US President takes many twists and turns and both rivals must become more humane on all fronts.

Enjoy the evening and let’s have a nice weekend!

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