Daily Overview of Global Markets & the SEE Region (Monday, October 10, 2016)

Banking, Company Profiles, Finance, Markets, News, Person Profiles, Reports, Statistics, Stock Markets — By on October 10, 2016 at 10:07 AM
Dr. Platon Monokroussos,  Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager, Eurobank Ergasias S.A

Dr. Platon Monokroussos, Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager, Eurobank Ergasias S.A

HIGHLIGHTS

WORLD ECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

GLOBAL MARKETS: The Mexican peso MXN and the CAD were among the main outperformers in FX markets in European trade on Monday on market perception that, following yesterday’s second (out of three) parliamentary debate, Hillary Clinton is more likely than Donald Trump to win the November 8th Presidential election. Looking at this week’s calendar, focus is on a number of Fed officials who are scheduled to speak including Chair Janet Yellen on Friday as well as the September FOMC minutes due on Wednesday. Fed Funds futures continue to assign a probability of around 65% for a 25bps rate hike by the Fed at the December monetary policy meeting, as was the case ahead of the release of the US’ September non-farm payrolls report on Friday.

GREECE: The Eurogroup that convenes today will assess Greece’s progress on the implementation of the pending milestones agreed during the first review of the country’s economic adjustment programme. A positive assessment will open the way for the disbursement of the remaining €2.8bn from the total of €10.3bn granted under the first review. According the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) the total value of imports-arrivals for the period from January to August 2016 presented no significant YoY change, but the corresponding change excluding oil products was +10.6%. The total value of exports-dispatches for the period January to August 2016 decreased by 6.3% YoY but, excluding oil products, fell by 0.5%YoY.

SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE

BULGARIA: The domestic equity market remained in a positive ground last week, though its recent rally appeared to be losing momentum. Meanwhile, the local bond market remained relatively quiet with the corresponding government yield curve undertaking some slight steepening.

ROMANIA: The EUR/RON moved significantly higher last week as concerns mount over Parliament discussing a bill that could impose the conversion of the CHF loans at historical FX rates. Sentiment towards RON government bonds turned sour last week on a combination of domestic concerns over the CHF bill as well as regional and global bond selling.

SERBIA: The EUR/RSD remained little changed for most of last week, staying bound within a very tight range of 123.00 – 123.30.

Daily Overview October 10 2016

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