Dry Market get the blues, Wets …still “sustainable” and Geopolitics trigger wars.-

Chartering, Containers, Dry Bulkcarriers, Environment, Markets, Military, News, Oil Industry, Politics and Government, Shipfinance, Shipping Indices, Statistics, Trade and Commerce — By on October 21, 2016 at 4:05 PM
John Faraclas

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) lost fifty points since last Friday the 14 of October and now stands at 842 thanks to the Panamaxes who …saved the day. On the Geopolitics coming to head. John Faraclas weekly recap:

  • So the BDI continued its losses; it was earlier on seven points down since yesterday and 50 since last week’s 892 points.
  • The Capers’ BCI 2014 lost a …modest 62 points since yesterday reading 1,575 points which  4 4 3  points down since last week’s 2,018 points – the 2,000 threshold barrier collapsed… ULTRA CAUTION although one size doesn’t constitute the Dry Market!
  • The Panamaxes BPI gained 10 points since yesterday now standing at 915 and it was good to see96 points plus since last week’s 819 points. Again, this is the size we believe to be the best for the time being and for the next ten years AT LEAST!
  • The Supras’ BSI was up none points reaching the 700 point mark and another 26 points up since last Friday’s 674!
  • The Handies’ BHSI was also up three points since yesterday at 427 which is also 16 points plus from last week’s 411!

So, with the exception of the Capers, all other Dry Indices were up; again we stress as a reminder: One size DOESN’T constitute a market!

The Wets on a better course, its winter after all and getting colder… The last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) closed earlier on at 691 (up six) and 422 (up four) respectively. On a weekly basis both indices were up, 35 for the Dirties (from 657) , and 64 for the Cleans (from 358)…

The WTI was just above US$ 50,50 – trying to maintain the minimum of US$ 50, but we shall see what geopolitics plus/minus will be…

The Box trade continues to flip-flop downwards and I guess consolidation must happen, otherwise the carriers will kill each other whilst others will commit suicide as they continue to trade in uncharted waters…

Few shipping entities will go ahead in the coming Shipping Tempest; it is those with extra power and capabilities who will survive. Confidence, Fitness and Knowledge is one thing but same cannot confront Posidon’s Waves; you need Power and only Power to ride on the crest of the waves. We have long ago foreseen this coming situation hence we behave like this. We do not employ irony simply because our market forecast was verbatim right and better from all the rest, we simply say that nobody will tell you in the for a or in academia how to sail in turbulent waters!

The Geopolitical  front doesn’t need any further explanation: it is going far worse with incalculable repercussions for all in all fronts.

More on Geopolitics later on tonight. Until then enjoy the evening and prepare yourselves over the weekend for yet another tough week ahead.

The Geopolitics part due to the internet hacking and cyber attacks was inserted just before midnight; here you go:

The MIGRANTS issue continues to create havoc to all disposed people, the victims that the supposed free world has allowed, unprecedented situations destroying the social cohesion in many countries and increasing the level of envy, counter response and obviously terrorism. In Italy, which lately witnessed despicable things, the influx of MIGRANTS continues. The North African Coast, particularly in Libya becomes the worst floating crematorium following even attacks on a dinghies, like the one yesterday. Shame, shame, shame! The Drama continues in Greece and its eastern Aegean Greek Islands and in Spain and Malta! We hold responsible all those decision making politicians for the despicable acts they allow to happen, including basically the closure of the frontiers and the give and take with Erdogan’s Turkey. I sincerely hope that one day all these inhumane politicians AND their cronies find their worst Nemesis – I mean being publicly named, shamed and humiliated! Now you can imagine and understand why the European Union is in such a mess on all issues (political, economic, and etcetera) when they cannot short-out the MIGRANTS problem.

Just above there is a mentioning about the Greek Islands and the sufferings of the Greek islanders as well as the dangers looming from other “planned” despicable geopolitical issues. Over the last 36 hours there is a major problem/issue with a van under foreign plates in Chios (Megas Limnionas – a seaside resort) with excellent communication “accessories” that Radm (Ret.HCG) Stavros Michailides spotted and immy advised the authorities on this unprecedented incident… We expect to read an official explanation. Add that an Albanian Warship / Coast Guard Patrol boat from NATO’s force will begin patrolling from November the Greek Waters between the Islands of Lesvos and Chios… You can understand what this bring in the frying pan of geopolitics in the region, save the mutual sympathy of Greek and Albanian public, but not that of the Albanian Governments which raises territorial issues in the Ionian Sea and in the Greek mainland for “minorities” and with a Turkish Naval basis in Durres (Dyrrhachion, the Ancient Greek City of Epidamnos for those who know AND don’t know), being pushed by consecutive Turkish regimes ever since 1994 when a floating dock was also added, being towed from Northern Europe… We mention this happening because already we have warned what can happen to the World when a New Alexander the Great “surfaces”; this is a warning! Continuing on this issue, Turkey has threatened that if in November her subjects are not free to move in Europe, the EU-Turkey Agreement for the MIGRANTS etc., you dead know which agreement we are referring to herein, will be null and void… Amazing blackmailing, eh!

Meantime in Greece, due to lack of trained personnel and officials from the European Union, thousands of MIGRANTS are forgotten, stranded so to speak and their return back to Turkey as well as their asylum applications will take at least another year. Wonder what Mrs. Merkel who really runs Europe has to say!

In continuation to the above, the SYRIAN saga continues devastating above all human life from all sides of the equation. Syria already is a devastating country and like IRAQ we shall see slowly slowly the Business International Developers Hooligans Brotherhood to rebuilt the entire country, or better say what will be left over and possibly see at least two States there… I am sure you all remember the titles and the mess in the international press and media… Being cynical, but on another way, we all know that “War is the Father of All; if you don’t destroy, you cannot rebuilt. War is good even for the warring ones” being the most pitiful message in and from History. Here though we live another silly situation, which has nothing to do with real “need” for war… I have indeed mentioned that we will end up in a major War conflagration so shipping will have again its mayhem! Indeed and I do believe so; a very asymmetrical thing to read and a dilemma to proceed creating a cynical oxymoron.-

Expect worse things in the region… and its wider periphery. We have again written on this wider North Africa / Middle East issue in the past and have provisionally (then) criticised the Architects of the North Africa Arab “Spring”… We have to be just in our reporting and be involved in Constructive Criticism as direct descendants from Aristotle!

The Mosul significance is one of the most important issues. Northern Iraq being called Kurdistan from many major Nations could be the preamble of the Great Kurdistan State involving all Kurds in the region currently straddling in four states. The battle of Mosul, the future control of Mosul and Kirkuk will be a turning point for the entire region. ISIS must be defeated one way or another and its supporters named, shamed and humiliated, particularly those who were selling them weaponry – any type of weaponry!

Next door to Iraq and Syria, the “mighty” Turkey being used by all major powers in the region,, the most double-faced nation. We don’t need to repeat what will happen to Turkey and its backers one day – this day will come as a surprise. As in shipping business, we believe in the element of surprise and we are expecting more internal upheavals in Turkey and many external ones. In the meantime the entire region must be on guard for any Turkish incursion; Erdogan as we have said he is a very predictably unpredictable person and he will also use religion at the right moment against any “infidel” he wishes… Erdogan will turn the region in a mess and even if he backtracks from his latest statement, no real wise person in the region can believe him!

A bit west to Turkey …stands Greece and an eventual GREXIT – if things go sour for Tsipras, he will do everything to remain in power. GREXIT is needed for one basic reason: None of the elements and conditions of the rest major states in the European Union have been kept towards Greece. Defending a European Nation is of primary essence.  For a start, Turkey’s behaviour in the entire region and particularly against Greece, should have been immy condemned by all European Union Member States of losing lucrative business in Turkey and accepting Turkey’s blackmail, speaks of itself!  The negative response of the European Union, being afraid is yet a major betrayal! We have extensively covered Greece in the very recent past and you can read all in this site. We remind you of May’s 2015 interview and again we provoke you for your comments. See what was up then and what happens now. So long as Greece looks to the ground, NOTHING will be achieved, particularly having a Wolfgang Schäuble’s style attitude. Greece’s “debt” was triggered mainly by Germany! End of the story. Mrs. Merkel has skeletons in her cupboard, particularly on Greece… Let me remind you all that: “You don’t lend a country for 42 (fortytwo) years, if you don’t have a sinister thing at the back of your sick mind!” Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Schäuble should bear in mind the old saying: “Dedi malum, et accepi”. Be prepared for an upheaval in Greece. We reiterate the view and we provoke a live TV debate on a first class TV channel that what Greece really needs for the next ten years is a government by ARISTOS. The rest is all NONSENCE as we in the shipping industry being far more knowledgeable than our offshore mates, we dead well “Know the Ropes”*

BREXIT! This is yet another major issue few have the nerves to tackle. The British will succeed, particularly as we have expedite that it is mainland Europe lead by Germany and France who wish to push the fight… It will really be a fight, and Germany/France, an axis of two really bankrupt nations, must stop the provocations. In the last European Union 28 States meeting, BREXIT wasn’t, as the entire world was expecting on the agenda.  Everybody expected BREXIT to be the top issue on the agenda. Syria, Russia etcetera were the issues…

BREXIT will bring another new world, a new World order, not just for Great Britain, not just for Europe but for all in Planet Ocean. From a shipping perspective – as we are a shipping medium, nothing will really change. London will remain the Administrative Capital of Shipping. Nothing can challenge London. It is and will be: Business as usual.

Putin’s Russia is coming up challenging the entire world sending shock waves and we all have to be on guard as Putin’s appetite, particularly when he is provoked, knows no limits. One thing that the West cannot “understand” is that Putin or any other Russian leader will not give in and they will preserve national integrity AND its periphery by all means. Ukraine and others will pay the prize…

Politicians in the West and in Germany and France in particular, miss a major point to include Putin’s Russia in a real widen European Union. Europe’s frontiers, as this medium has repeatedly mentioned, stop at the Ural Mountains! Read Political Geography and Anthropogeography and you will get the message. Stop being blind! Putin knows to strike the shepherd and thus make the sheep scatter; what’s Europe’s and conversely America’s counter on this…?

The European Union is going through a very tough time on all fronts. Take for example the latest row in Belgium with an entire region objecting the EU-Canada Free Trade Deal. Wallonia’s mayhem or CETA’s success? We shall see! If things in Europe are going this way and on many issues where disagreements rule – like the MIGRANTS issue, expect the dissolution with FREXIT, ITEX to name but a few. Add …GREXIT and the South of Europe and the PIGS and see the sheep (yes the sheep) all over the highways of the EU blocking cities and ports!

The USA Elections, the worst we have ever witnessed, will indeed shape Planet Ocean for the next ten years. Nothing is safe for either candidate; pools are pools, voters are voters and the end result is the winner. The end result counts and in 18 days we will know. Mrs. Clinton leads by only four points a 47-43 basketball-wise result for the first two quarters. Revelations count a lot for both. One though must draw the line between the hype, as it happened over here in the United Kingdom with the BREXIT leaders disappearing. Farage become an anecdote as well as many others. Even on the BREMAIN front people scattered… Caution as whoever the leader, she/he has a lot to tackle and this will affect positively or negatively the entire shipping industry! Inter-American issues, World issues and unfinished business are ahead… It is for the USA to ensure the free and safe trade and above all secure sea-trade/adventure as without the seas there would be no life as we know same until now. They are more important than the rainforests because they dictate both the pattern of our weather and the World’s water supply! Securing the Saes and the Planet’s Dire Straits is the number one priority so as to eliminate Piracy and Terrorism! Imagine if our industry’s Canals and Straits come under attack. See what happened with the American Warships off Yemen… And what about Cyber attacks like the ones we have experienced over the last five years and earlier on tonight when hackers used internet connected home devices to attack websites!

In AFRICA we are eager to find out why South Africa wants to leave the ICC (International criminal Court). In Burkina Faso another attempt for a coup was foiled… Caution. Meantime we learn that in Somalia we might have hostages soon to be released by pirates holding them after almost five years…

In Asia and in particular in Asia Pacific Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte might bring hiccups for the US policy in the region, in a country fully supported by the US. Duterte will try to capitulate on the Russians and Chinese. He might wish to become Pacific’s Dom Mintoff with the expected repercurssions for the entire region and beyond. Time will tell… CAUTION as Japan is closely watching its southern sea frontiers as well as its eastern one…

In turbulent Latin America, Venezuela is a country to watch. Can Henrique Capriles overthrow president Nicholas Maduro who might even stage a sort of coup…? Extreme caution.

In Brazil things might get more than sour…

Australia might get a great post-BREXIT deal with the United Kingdom. After all the bonds are still strong…

The HESGB – Hellenic Engineers’ Society of Great Britain, last Summer drinks and dips night at The Oyster Shed off London Bridge by the Hanseatic Walk at the corner with Angel Lane. A great evening with over seventy members, friends and devotees  attending including the female Greek fraternity. Congrats to all; remind you HESGB’s 22nd Anniversary Dinner at Grosvenor House on the 11th of February!

The Danish Maritime Fair is on 25 to 27th of October in Copenhagen; an event not to be missed!

The London Shipping Law Centre’s Cadwallader event on the 26th of October is coming up at Drapers’ Hall with the unique debate also on the “Master under attack? Dr. Aleka Sheppard’s success story continues…

The Capital Link’s Shipping and Offshore CSR 6th Annual event in London arrives on the 2nd of November at One Moorgate Place! A great line up by the Bornozis’ team…

Two days later on the 4th of November the 16th Navigator Forum at the seaside Divani Hotel in Vouliagmeni, Athens, Greece will attract the faithful crowds! The Bezantakos family lead by Danae Bezantakos in full force with their coaching style event ready for yet a great debate titled The Shipping Decision Makers Forum…

At the Ahoy in Rotterdam Intermodal Europe 2016 takes place on the 14-16th of November; a great chance to see the latest on Intermodalism which lately shapes transport world’s modus operandi…

…and immediately after Rotterdam the 8th City of London Biennial meeting 2016 takes place on the 17-18th  of November at the IMO on “Striving for stability in a highly uncertain world”. The Prof. Costas Th. Grammenos team promises as usual the big surprise…

Viewers should log on the UPCOMING Events and see all the other events.

____

*Know the Ropes

“If sailors aboard a sailing ship did not know all the functions of the hundred of ropes that made up the rigging and were not experts at dozens of knots, their ship could neither catch another vessel nor escape from superior forces. The rigging could comprise more than 10 miles of ropes and cordage in the largest vessels, and the individual ropes had hundreds of different names and functions. The ropes were usually the same thickness and colour and so could only be told apart from the precise position in which they were secured” (source: Breventon’s Nautical Curiosities)

 

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    1 Comment

  • Despoina Foka says:

    Εμπεριστατωμενη, διεθνης αναλυση. Θα ηθελα να επικεντρωθώ σε δυο τρια σημεια που μου εκαναν εντυπωση:
    Ο πολεμος λες, κ. John Faraclas ειναι ο πατερας ολων….. Σοφο αν και ανατριχιαστικο…

    Επισης η ανθρωπιστικη κριση με τους προσφυγες και τις συνθήκες διαβιωσης ραγιζει καρδιες και αποτελει ντροπη για ολους μας…

    Ακομη η κατασταση στη θαλασσα της Χιου στο Αιγαιο μας και το ποιος ακριβως θα περιπολει και με τι αδεια στην θάλασσα μας, ειναι ενα θεμα που πρέπει να ξερουν ολοι οι Ελληνες…

    Μ αρεσαν αυτα που γραφεις για τη Γερμανία και τις ευθυνες της καθως και το οτι η κ. Μερκελ εχει σκελετους στο ντουλαπι της…

    Οσο για το επος της Συριας και τις αναταραχες στο Ιράκ, μας φοβιζουν οι ανακατασκευες, και δημιουργία καινουριων κρατων σε αυτην την περιοχη…

    Ευοιωνο, μ αρεσε το αποφθεγμα – παροιμια σου σε σχεση με το brexit. Στο Λονδίνο : business as usal…

    Δηλ. Η αγγλια και φυσικα η ναυτιλία βρισκουν και θα βρουν το δρομο τους……

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