Eurobank research: Trip Notes Serbia – Notes from our trip to Belgrade 19-20 October 2016

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Platon MonokrousosTrip Notes: Serbia

Key notes from our recent trip to Belgrade: October 19th– 20th

In late October, we traveled to Belgrade where we met with high-level officials from the Central Bank, the Finance Ministry, the Public Debt Management Office, the IMF, the World Bank, as well as market participants from the domestic financial sector. The present trip note attempts to offer our readers a cohesive overview of current conditions in the domestic economy and markets as well as the outlook ahead.

Contents

  • Domestic political landscape remains stable following recent election 
  • From triple dip recession to fast growth recovery
  • Outperformance of growth forecasts expected in 2016-2017
  • Serbia: a potential medium-term outperformer in the region
  • Good upside potential provided that reform momentum is sustained
  • Aggressive fiscal adjustment strengthens investor confidence towards the outlook of the domestic economy 
  • ·State owned enterprises (SOEs) still a source of fiscal risks, though efforts are being made to mitigate them
  • Public debt to GDP ratio has apparently peaked, one year ahead of schedule
  • Inflation anticipated to gradually move within target by mid-2017
  • Monetary easing cycle near trough
  • Market Overview & Investment Strategy   

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