The BDI: every plus point matters in this geopolitical chaos…

Containers, Dry Bulkcarriers, Markets, News, Ship Demolitions, Ship Finance, Shipping Indices, Statistics, Stock Markets, Tankers, Trade and Commerce — By on November 4, 2016 at 11:52 PM
John Faraclas

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) closed six points higher since yesterday at 855 , the Geopolitical Chaos though goes from strength to strength and wonder if there is any Deus ex machina to save the day… John Faraclas weekly recap:

At least the BDI gained 21 points since last week’s 834 points, despite the fact that this was thanks, mainly, to the volatility of the Capers! Once again we reiterate the view that one size CANNOT dictate the Market and CANNOT be taken on to account… How can Valuations work? How Insurances correlates?

The Capers were up 49 points since yesterday with the BCI 2014 reading 1,593 points; on a weekly basis the BCI was up 176 points since last Friday’s 1,417. Volatility at its best!

The Panamaxes  lost one point since yesterday with the BPI standing at 885; on a weekly basis though they were down 28 points  from last week’s 913! CAUTION!

The Supras lost two points with the respective BSI  now standing at 716 points; on a weekly basis the BSI was down, just six points from last week’s 722…

The Handies’ BHSI was down one point since yesterday at 433 and on a weekly basis remained the same  – 433!

So, once again, despite the small rise of the general index, the dry market looks uncertain and heading in reality downwards – a possible crash? Remind you that we are nearly three years of very low markets and we are still nearly 1,500 points apart from the end of December 2013 levels!!!! When we go over and above these levels, then some gurus and specialist analyst can talk and obviously we will all be happier – save those that will vanish!

The Wets on a daily basis were down; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 667 – minus three and 445 – minus 26 points respectively. On a weekly basis though both were on the plus side: ten points and 19 points plus respectively from 657 and 426…

The price of WTI stood at 23:00 hrs at US$ 44,13 – nearly five dollars down since last Friday… That is a big issue and wonder what’s next…

The Container trade has seen some interesting mergers starting from the major Japanese and Chinese companies… For sure other will follow suit; expect major conflagration…

All in all the worst ever market but the best so far buyers’ market over the last 40 years! Expect many scandals to surface following successive bankruptcies !

The Geopolitics continue to dominate the market bit and we are positive that the explosive situation will continue…

The MIGRANTS remained the number one problem… Too many deaths, too many still coming over to Europe – Greece and Italy shoulder the burden… Mrs. Merkel has failed to curb the influx… and she failed to convince her allies in Turkey to stop their pathetic behaviour towards Europe. The European Social Cohesion is at stake. We have condemned the Politicians and the  diplomats for succumbing to political and business hooligans’ pressure… You dead well know what I mean!

The Syrian saga equally dominates the scene… Expect the total destruction of this Eastern Mediterranean country…

The battle for Mosul continues… Are we going to see Peace in Northern Iraq? Will ISIS’s countdown towards defeat is near?

The Turkish president plays with fire in all fronts… Annoying the Kurds is not in his best interests… Violating Greece’s Air Space and Territorial Waters might produce …tsunamis in the entire region and the wider periphery…

The USA elections entered the most difficult phase… The Super Power might be on trouble… Both candidates for the Presidency are neck to neck  and wonder if we are going to see a JFK vs. Nixon case… The FBI is concerned for a possible terrorist attack by Islamist terrorists although there isn’t a specific and tangible information as yet; we suggest that we should all be on guard!

Russia is ready to take advantage of the USA’s election; Putin is “afraid” of Mrs. Clinton… hence his behaviour… or what? Why he is so concerned about a possible Clinton win? Donald Trump might have closed the gap, but… Most people believe that if he wins the US might lose its supremacy… and Putin’s Russia might fill the gap…

BREXIT becomes more perplexed for all… There is a debatable issue on who has the upper hand to decide: the peoples vote or the Mother of all Parliaments… The pound plays games, so does the EURO and USDollar. In the Far East the YEN and  Renmimbi are about to see new parities…

Greece enters yet another low period and the latest reshuffle today proves our worries of what is yet to come… Many have expressed concerns for the new Shipping Minister, needless to say for all involved… we have warned you that things in Greece might turn sour! As an exemption a new independent ministry was created, that of Tourism!

China is in tatters… India too…

The Capital Link’s 6th London CSR for Shipping and Offshore was on all counts the best ever event of its kind, at least, in the Square Mile!

IMIF’s 41st Anniversary  at Radisson Blu Portman Hotel was yet another success!

We  heard of a successful Navigator‘s forum in Athens by the Bezantakos ‘ and we look forward having details to advise you!

The Athens’ Greek – Russian 4th Energy forum leaves some interesting thoughts; we shall see after the USA’s election…

Let’s enjoy the Bonfire Night tomorrow and get ready for a tough pre-Christmas period… remember, remember, remember the 5th of November!

Hope we all enjoy the coming World Travel Market in London’s Excel from Monday the 7th of November onwards!

Still to come:

The Cyprus – UK Business forum is on the 8th of November in the City of London;

The WMA (Wealth Management Association) summit 2016 takes place on the 9th of November in London;

The 11th British Hellenic Chamber of Commerce 11th Annual London Conference in collaboration with the Hellenic Observatory, LSE on the 14th of November;

The Intermodal Europe 2016 at Ahoy Rotterdam 15 -17th o November is yet one of the most important events;

The Eighth City of London Biennial Meeting, the Prof. Costas Grammenos led event takes place on the 17th and 18th of November – expected to be the event of events for total shipping matters;

Don’t miss the early Christmas Lunch of the HESGB on the 27th of November;

Have a nice weekend and be on Guard for every eventuality!

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