Daily Overview of Global Markets & the SEE Region (Monday, November 14, 2016)

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Platon MonokrousosHIGHLIGHTS

WORLD ECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

GLOBAL MARKETS: US Treasury yields remained in an upward trend in European trade on Monday on the view over higher inflation pressures and wider budget deficits assuming that US President-elect’s proposals on fiscal policy will be implemented. Higher US Treasury yields favored the USD with the DXY index hitting a nine-month high slightly above 100.00 earlier today. Focus this week is on US retail sales, CPI and Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony which all have the potential to push Treasury yields and the USD even higher.

GREECE: According to a number of local media, an informal agreement is in place between the IMF and the German side regarding the Fund’s financial participation in Greece’s new bailout programme,, which reportedly entails the following milestones: a) a political agreement in principle for the conclusion of the 2nd programme review on the December 5 Eurogroup, fulfillment of all prior actions by end January 2017 and disbursement of the attached loan tranche in one or more sub-tranches, b) financial participation of the IMF to the programme with funds up to €6bn, c) a debt sustainability analysis by the IMF in December which will take into consideration the short-term debt relief measures that the ESM will have finalised by then as well as a clearer description of the medium-term measures without them having to be implemented at that point, and d) inclusion of Greece into the ECBs quantitative easing (QE) programme.

SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE

BULGARIA: The domestic equity market continued to gain ground last week, while the local currency sovereign debt yield curve steepened further and Eurobonds underperformed.

ROMANIA: The tone in Romanian assets last week was primarily set by developments in the US election. On the data front, CPI came in at +0.4% MoM/-0.4% YoY in October vs. -0.1% MoM/-0.6% YoY in September driven by monthly increases in all three main consumer basket components.

SERBIA: The EUR/RSD held steady around 123.0 last week, trading in quite a limited range on low volumes. As was broadly anticipated by market participants, NBS kept its policy rate unchanged, at 4.00% at its MPC meeting on Thursday.

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Daily Overview November 14 2016

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