Beware of the Market’s premature euphoria…

Conferences, Seminars, Forums, Energy, Environment, IMO, Markets, Politics and Government, Shipfinance, Shipmanagement, Shipping Centers — By on November 18, 2016 at 11:35 PM
John Faraclas

John Faraclas

The BDI is just 1,000 (one thousand) points below December 2013 level, still a long way to go despite the latest  euphoria, as Geopolitics might be the “catalyst” for cataclysmical  events; John Faraclas’ weekly recap:

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) closed with a 26 points plus since yesterday closing and now reads 1,257 points; this is 212 points higher since last week’s (11/11) 1,045 points. Indeed this rise is a fact but it shouldn’t fool us as things are not that rosy as they appear…

The Capers were once again the “driving” force of this rise accompanied by the Panamaxes and surprise surprise by the Supras!

The BCI 2014 was up a modest 21 point – far beyond the three digit rise of the previous days… now standing at 2,752 points; it was though 449 points higher form last Friday’s 2,303 points… Did I hear you say volatility…

The Panamaxes on par with the Capers vis-à-vis the proportional rise enjoyed just 35 points plus now standing at 1,388, which is 377 points higher from last week’s 1,011!

The Supras surprised all involved with a 61 points plus bring the BSI over and above the 800 point threshold at 809! That’s 104 point higher from last week’s 705 – a very good and needed rebound!

The Handies’ BHSI enjoyed a double digit daily rise of 12 points closing the day at 466 points; that’s 38 points plus form Friday the 11 of Nov. 2016 when it reached the 428 points.

So all in all a very “encouraging” dry market which on other times would have been the preamble of a total improvement and would have been appropriately celebrated!

The Wets have been also enjoying an upwards trend; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 831 (up 45) and 437 (up seven) points respectively. On a weekly basis they were comfortably higher at 87 (from 744) and 46 (from 391) points respectively. These levels in comparison are better than those of the Dry Market’s earnings-wise!

The Price of WTI stood just above the US$ 45, to be precise as these lines are written it touched the US$ 45,10 level… Last week it ended at US$ 43,95… Cautions as the public and in particular the poor house-holds worldwide pay the damage – that in percentage affects 95 centum of Planet Ocean’s population; you can make your own calculations…

There is widely spread fear for tomorrow, despite the superficial smiles and hopes, as thing are not rosy for many shipping companies, whether listed or unlisted, trump or liner, national or whatever, is ‘trump’ a joke or… a mistake???. We have to repeat that we are in no man’s land; and remember: no man is an island! Caution. Irrespective of this situation we strongly reiterate the view that this is the best ever buyers’ market ever witnessed and those able, willing to deliver handsome capital gains on the upturn, should proceed and add suitable tonnage in their fleets.  We have also to repeat the fact that we are at the end and obviously in the beginning of another 500 (five hundred) years of cosmo-historical changes, plus / minus 50, so we are not surprised of what takes place, given the Geopolitics dictating, as always the markets. People, companies and even many states have hallucinations and they will pay the hefty penalty of not adapting to reality and time-change!

The latest Geopolitical events enhance the danger for the markets well-being… Again we are in limbo, so wonder where are those risk assessors to put things in order..

The MIGRANTS are maintaining the lead with respect being the number one issue facing humanity! Those clever dicks and pathetic dolls ignoring the incalculable consequences deriving from the MIGRANTS Saga, must be one day publicly humiliated – will be the first to throw the stone – you dead well know what I mean. Soon the shit will hit the fan…

See what happens in Greece’s Aegean Islands just off the Anatolian coast and also in Italy and try to interpret same soon happening all over Europe… Hello hello Mrs.Merkel… In the meantime we strongly continue to condemn Turkey and its president, its prime minister, its foreign secretary and Turkish security forces for the despicable blackmail against Greece and Europe by allowing over 1,5 million refugees in their territory come over to the EU. There are over 4 (four) million still “stranded” in Turkey ready to come over… Stop the hype! This is a crime against humanity!

The Syrian saga continues and gets even worse; Russia will not back-off! The World arena is full of messy predators…

What’s happening with ISIS, eh! Is it so difficult to get rid of them, or we are still trying to find excuses for those in the Islamist world to expose them for reason “known” only to those enjoying the corridors of power?

BREXIT really turns everything upside down; I like it, as given Germany’s influence in Europe, BREXIT will trigger revolt in many more EU countries. Just wait and see.

Greece, given Germany’s finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble totally arrogant and inhumane behaviour as well as some others in the EU vis-à-vis the so called Greek debt, must leave here and now. You will ask: and what about Greece’s debt? THERE IS NO DEBT.- End of the story! Does Mrs. Merkel and Herr Schäuble allow us to see the hidden skeletons in Germany’s cupboards? In order to avoid any misunderstanding we politely provoke Herr Schäuble for a live TV debate!

The Athens current regime and those having aspirations in gaining power must go home… Greece doesn’t need any “change” in who’s running the country, nor elections; Greece needs an Aristos’ team to run the country for ten years and then when streamlining is achieved, indeed we can see elections but with certified candidates – you dead well know what I mean.

Germany saw a slow-down in its industrial production, export and development. The “locomotive” of the EU is facing, and will soon face tremendous issues.

France tries to re-assert itself…

Putin’s Russia keeps the pressure on worldwide in all fronts and this will trigger unprecedented actions from the other side; wonder what president-elect Trump has in mind…

It is now down to Donald Trump to turn everything said about him upside down and prove he is the World’s Leader, given the USA’s superior status which he must enhance to the benefit of the American People and the World at large! We shall wait and see, as the outgoing president Obama, no matter what the media said that he come to tears in the holly rock of the Acropolis whilst visiting the world’s most impressive classic temple and building of humanity, The Parthenon, he didn’t address, as he should have done the Turkish aggression against Greece, no matter if Turkey in a NATO ally… Wonder if during his visit in Germany brought down to tears Mrs. Merkel for the inhumane stanch towards the Greek people…

China will soon experience a financial tsunami creating an upheaval in world markets. Japan is closely watching developments; the Japanese cannot afford any hiccups, they are determined…

South America is in tatters too and that might trigger other consequences in world trade and stability.

India keeps a low profile and one wonders what will also happen there…

The African continent, particularly the entire northern Africa from Gibraltar to Port Said is in a mess… don’t ask about South Africa, or other regions.

Anyway, the week ended in a positive tone: an apotheosis for Costas Grammenos’ Brigade and his Centre for Shipping, Trade and Finance at City University’s Cass Business School for its 8th City of London Biennial Meeting at the IMO; who wasn’t there!!!! We will revert soon with the deliberations there, all that happened in this two-day meeting, including the excellent by heart speech of The Rt. Hon. John Hayes CBE MP, Minister of State – Shipping and Ports, DoT., the great debate, particularly on Q&A time, the very touching moment in Memoriam and recognition for their role of the late Lord Howe and Sir Gavyn Arthur with Cass’s Business School progress. All the panels where indeed meticoulsly selected to cover all issues and hope next time round to have a bit more of legal aspects issues and one more extra day to cover more via Q&A time.  For the time being we leave you with the summing up and closing remarks, a thank you note by Prof. Charles Baden-Fuller, the centenary professor of strategy at Cass:

 

Have nice weekend, enjoy the Beaujolais as we did at the Bureau Veritas’ Trinity House annual event,  and be on guard for every eventuality…

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    1 Comment

  • Dear John
    Great points that you are bringing up. I will not elaborate too much. 1. BREXIT – What is it? 2. Chinese financial tsunami. – How can it happen since it is a centrally controlled economy? 3. Greek Debt – we missed the chance to show them the door when they had nothing as a mnemonio. Now it is up to them. 4. Greek Management Team or “aristoi” that is wish full thinking but the correct way and I agree with you the only way to go.

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