The Markets and Geopolitics: Live and let die…*

Events, Markets — By on November 21, 2016 at 10:43 PM
John Faraclas

John Faraclas

For a start I have been an optimistic person but also a pragmatist. Many times I have warned on the situ of the Shipping Markets and Geopolitics and to the detriment of the hoi polloi, myself and this medium, have been verbatim right for many years now, as in 2008 we predicted the current situation! The BDI has fallen yet again, subjected to volatility and uncertainty that governs our business world all over Planet Ocean. It was all plain sailing given the unprecedented percentage rise of the shipping indices. The geopolitical issues too are far worse than even we have foreseen; John Faraclas’ briefly report:

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) lost 17 points earlier on today and now stands at 1,240 points, thanks to the as ever volatile Capers which lost 114 points bringing the BCI 2014 index down at 2,638, when everybody expected at least another 50 points plus!

The Panamaxes lost just one point maintaining both the balance and the momentum – now at 1,387 points the BPI still has a future…

The Supras’ BSI enjoyed a 26 points plus and now reads 835 points.

The Handies’ BHSI too had a good day gaining 11 points – now standing at 477.

So all in all a falling market and one has to be more than careful in making favourable projections.

Christmas is coming, the Chinese New Year follows and these two events will influence the markets. Be cautious as the Year of the Rooster will be a very crucial year in all market and geopolitics fronts.

The Wets with mixed feelings; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 828 – minus three and 447 – plus 10 points respectively.

The WTI surged above the US$ 47.61 – this is an alarming percentage-wise figure and wonder how the low earning households will tackle this level which might reach US$ 50 and then…

Many companies, both listed and unlisted, big or medium and small are trying hard to find ways to survive and this, coupled with the geopolitical uncertainty, can open the Aeolus’ winds of destruction for the majority of these companies. We strongly believe that the pattern of shipping will change and will adhere to this…

The Geopolitical front remains the same, slightly worse than last Friday and we eagerly wait to see the post Mosul and Aleppo developments; we are worried that after the fall of these two cities to the respective predators, terrorism will begin, a situation already experienced in previous defeats of the real terrorists of ISIS et al…

All other issues as said above remain the same as in our last Friday’s weekly recap, with the MIGRANTS still high on the top.

The Syrian mess continues.

Turkey is pressing hard but the time of an internal clash has come. In the meantime the Turkish president must stop the provocations against Greece, being also provocations against the integrity of Europe. Wonder why on these provocations Mrs. Merkel in particular is conspicuously silent – same applies for all European leaders…

BREXIT as we see it will even change the entire world with respect to trade and a new world order will rule the day with a jubilant United Kingdom who dared questioned the German influence and control in running the European Union.

Greece, as we have long warned, will make another monumental change felt all over too and that will come strangely enough very unexpectedly.

The USA is busy watching how the new Trump administration will take size and shape; this is a big worry. The entire world eagerly awaits the new administration’s formation.

Dow Jones had an all time record but the parity between the USDollar and the Euro creates scepticism…

Fukushima shakes all over with earthquakes from morning to night ranging between 6 and 6.9 of the Richter scale and prompting issuance of a tsunami – we shall see. Pity we cannot tackle the natural phenomena.

The Oinoussian Benevolent Fund’s Annual Ball last Saturday was a very special one supporting as always charity to all intents and purposes. Moreover its president John M. Hadjipateras delivered a very powerful speech with an emphasis on the despicable Migrants issue and Turkey’s pestering attitude against the Oinoussian Islets , particularly that of Panagia.

Lastly, earlier on tonight at the IMO a woman, a master of an Indian tanker owned by the SCI, won the Annual Bravery Award. Captain Radhika Menon’s award reflects to all women worldwide and makes it a unique chance for WISTA international to pursue the issue of women seafarers. A very touching ceremony. Two more seafarers won awards, Shri B. M.Das and M. Kang Seonggu. We will revert asap with a full reporting on this special event which attracted 600 people!

Have a nice evening.

___

* try to interpret the lyrics of this song with the current situation

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