The Markets: controlled losses; the Geopolitics: uncontrollable…

Markets, News, Reports — By on November 22, 2016 at 11:57 PM
John Faraclas

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) lost just eight points and now stands at 1,232; the Geopolitical front continues to create more mess and one wonders what’s next to come. John Faraclas’ assesses the current situation:

The Capers’ BCI 2014 lost 40 points and now reads 2,598; a bit of a “controllable” fall from the most volatile and uncertain dry size.

The Panamaxes BPI lost five points and now its respective index stands at 1,382 points.

A double plus figure of 17 points for the Supras’ BSI now standing at 852 points.

The Handies BHSI was also on the plus with eight additional points and now it reads 485 – hopefully it might reach 500!

A downwards dry market and all must double check were they stand, as even the very very few are in trouble. The prolonged crisis, that few had ever imagined, continues and we all await to see the next major companies to collapse, whether tramp on liner, listed or unlisted…

The Wets had a slight upwards figures; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) gained six and nine points respectively – 834 and 456…

The WTI was comfortably up and over and above the US$ 48, but then begun to drop below the US$ 48 for unknown reason; that is good overall as the burden for the poor households is reduced… although the night is still young!

The Container Trade still cannot find its momentum – and under the current circumstances, it will never will, as well as find its way to full recovery and this greatly reflects the rest of the dry trades and the consumers markets at large… This sector needs Consolidation both for the Liner and Non-liner companies; increase in demolition and all together change in sizes, different speeds/consumptions, more ergonomic vessels, needless to say ecological. Once upon a time you recall that speed above 28 miles was more than a must; it was the norm. Slow speed will never turn around the trade and above all services, be it for dry or reefer boxes… Fast, economic and reliable service this is all about container trade. No excuses… A must to control low fuel prices for the benefit of humanity and this will in turn save the trade under the proviso that consolidation, scrapping and speed/consumption as well as the other issues mention above materialise!

The LNG and LPG trades are interestingly focusing in a non-increase and accelerated newbuildings, as otherwise one can say: good bye to these trades too.

Ending the Markets we reiterate the view that unless we see the BDI at 2,500 points nothing promising should be expected. As for the Wets obviously the need to see the figures of BDTI and BCTI double will save the day.  This crisis will bring a new pattern in the Transport industry which tends to become totally intermodalised and become a sophisticated business for the very few; end of the story. Even with an all-out war things will continue to be sour…

The Geopolitical front will soon produce unprecedented mess all over Planet Ocean:

The MIGRANTS spillage in the aftermath of the fall of Mosul and Aleppo will be uncontrollable and today’s awful situation will look in comparison as a kindergarten; just wait and see. In the meantime the situ as it stands today is not just explosive, particularly on the Eastern Greek Aegean Islands, is far worse…  Both the Anatolian and North African coast (Libya) are more than vulnerable with thousands still on the move…

Turkey continues to pester all in its periphery disputing the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne and escalates dangerously the provocations against its neighbours, particularly Greece, pushing also Albania in the fry-pan and this might produce the beginning of World War Three in the region. Wonder why all European Leaders and the Americans, as well as – better to mention it, the UN’s Security Council Members, all are conspicuously silent! After the despicable blackmail of the Turkish president vis-à-vis the MIGRANTS issue, one can expect everything!

Greece is going through a concentration-camp policy instigated by Germany’s PM Angela Merkel and her federal Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schäuble… Despite them and others having Alexis Tsipras in power as their proxy leader for the Greeks they will all collapse… Many wonder why Tsipras hasn’t revolted as it was expected… We have expressed our view of what is needed per mare per terra for Greece long ago. The Aristos Government is the only hope for Greece.-

BREXIT continues to bring more shocks around and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Let’s see how Mrs. May tackles the issue; she needs to follow same 24/7, so as to avoid hiccups from within and abroad…

The TPP might officially collapse; when the news appeared late last night, many got alerted…

It seems that USA’s president-elect Donald Trump will pursue whatever he likes; his desire to have Nigel Farage as the British Ambassador tells it all.

On the above and other regions, more news tomorrow…

Have a nice evening!

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