Dropping Markets and explosive Geopolitics are here to stay…

Insight, Markets, Reports, Shipping Indices, Statistics, Stock Markets — By on November 23, 2016 at 9:42 PM
John Faraclas

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) stands at 1,224 points after losing another eight points earlier on today; the geopolitics any moment now will become unbearable. John Faraclas’ daily recap:

The main culprit still remains the Capers; the BCI 2014 lost almost 100 points – to be precise another 91 and at 2,507 still pauses a danger… unless of course things turn upside down – wonder if and when…

The Panamaxes’ BPI gained just five points – 1,387, and this is dangerous too, as if it doesn’t move above the  1,500 soon, it will cause troubles for the many… and the few…

“Good” news for the Supras gaining another double digit points, 22 to be precise and now the BSI stands at 874.

The Handies too with a double plus figure of 16 points brought the BHSI up to 501 points breaking for the first time the 500 points threshold!

The Wets were on a plus modus; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and the BCTI (Cleans) stood at 862 – that’s 28 points up, and 459 – that’s three points up, respectively; a bit of good news and looks unless things turn upside down, that the Wets for the short term might produce gains… We shall see, as all depends on the geopolitical jargon…

The WTI as these lines are written stands at US$ 48,01!

The Geopolitics as said in the title of this reporting might prove more than explosive.

The MIGRANTS any moment can turn sour…

The War in Syria and Iraq continues in all fronts. Russia will use all it has to ensure it remains present on Syrian soil. Expect a spill over in the entire region…

Turkey continues to pester its neighbours, Greece in particular and Albania follows suit with a dubious behaviour in its relations with Greece, patronaged by Turkey. We have made a strong mentioning in our yesterday’s report as well as in many previous ones!

The Cyprus issue once again failed to produce the results the two communities expected; the politicians and the diplomats once again failed and the failure in reality rest with the Super Powers who continue to play games. Finding a just solution is painful for the super powers, that’s why they do not wish the solution of the long lasting Cyprus problem.

All in all one shouldn’t underestimate the Greek response, even if this entails major scarification of all kinds. The Greeks will not back off. Today only there were 17 (seventeen) intrusions of Greece’s and conversely the European Union’s airspace by Turkish jets.

The Ukraine front might soon erupt. Can the Ukrainians match the Russian determination? Can NATO intervene? Having also the Baltic States at stake, the situation becomes very perplexed… A 23 year old woman will tackle the Ukrainian corruption! Anna Kalynchuk has a colossal task to confront and like Anastasia Deyeva, who at 24 is alternate interior minister… What’s happening there …eh?

The Balkans too despite news being silenced is still a tinder box ready to explode…

The European Union is in a mess. the European banking system, most major banks are going under… CAUTION as The Mighty Continent might fall apart and no fourth term for Mrs. Merkel will save the day for Germany and Europe; the end is nigh…

Now, having read the above, imagine if the both the Suez Canal and the Dardanelles are closed as a result of a regional conflagration…what will be the effect in the shipping trade? How will China respond to this “blockade”? Will Putin reason with the situation?

Greece itself is braced for a much needed real big change with the ultimate goal that of the Greek people not being further exploited by Mrs. Merkel and her likes! The time will come when Germany, given this inhumane behaviour, not only against the Greeks, but for many, if not all in Europe, to end up far worse from what suffered in the aftermath of WWII. It seems to me that the Germans have not learned their lesson, despite the warnings – the BREXIT being one of the many to come…

The BREXIT saga will continue until the people of the United Kingdom feel comfortable; remember this. Every day indeed there are more news and tests on how to handle the affairs of this nation within and globally following the BREXIT vote five months today. Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer said that targets will be now met after 2020, in particular deficits. There will be something in the tune of £122 billion worse off in government finances. This Autumn Statement is the most important one! The appropriate handling of BREXIT is obviously the trick, as BREXIT will change British history and shake the world deep down its foundations.

USA’s president-elect Donald Trump continues to form his administration; two more women are in the cards for respective top jobs. One as USA’s UN envoy the other as education secretary. All in all, Planet ocean eagerly awaits the full Trump’s team… and his policies for within the US and overseas. The Dow Jones was at record high above the 19,000 points; profits for the S&P, but some hiccups for others…

China and Facebook re-write in our view the freedom-of-expression issue; let’s see what develops there. The most important issue though is the Chinese finances and its Global presence and conversely strength. In my humble view China is faced with very difficult tasks, which if  not appropriately tackled will affect the world at large with detrimental economic consequences.

Japan is closely watching the situation and in particular the financial, shipping and shipbuilding one, given China’s and South Korean’s shipyards problems…

India too is very much concerned, but well, let’s hope BREXIT saves the day for this British Commonwealth nation…

South America tries hard to survive too… Too many issues there at stake, form North (Venezuela) down to the South…

In Australia and also in new Zealand there is scepticism on the TPP deal…

In Africa, among other palavers, we have the latest linguistic one in Cameroon… with French being used in the English speaking parts, particularly in schools and courts of justice…

Enough for tonight; tomorrow is another day! Enjoy your evening  and be on guard for every eventuality. Things and developments move faster than anticipated…

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    1 Comment

  • Dear John. The questions and issues you are writing about make for very good food for thought. The minimalistic questions or statements are really to the point which by the way many will dismiss as pie in the sky. keep writing but in the BDI, BCI etc etc, others are those who have continually put their ideas forward and invariably they have been proven wrong time and time again. They are simply not reading the signs of the times. The world is overly indebted therefore vulnerable to smallest ,mistake by the finance guys running the countries and the Central banks. But as long as the arms dealers keep making money do not worry, the world will continue to be in a mess. Besides the coal and iron ore that has been pushing the capes rates up is a ploy that we need to watch closely to see the next month which way is going to go.

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