BDI: The Fall; Geopolitics to follow suit…

Chartering, Dry Bulkcarriers, Markets, News, Reports, Ship Finance, Shipping Indices, Statistics, Stock Markets, Tankers, Trade and Commerce — By on December 15, 2016 at 11:58 PM
John Faraclas

John Faraclas

At 966 the BDI rewrites history and Geopolitics being closely interwoven with trade, conversely with the market, will also suffer in its entirety! John Faraclas daily recap:

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) lost 37 points since yesterday and now reads 966 – below the 1,000 points threshold. Alarming bells can be heard all over and given the numericals, turning upside down the two last digits of 966 could be a… 999 call; turning the first digit it could be the …devils number 666, although this is not true if you know numerology and understand what same refers to with its real numbers in Greek, of course: χξς’… Anyway…

The Capers suffered yet again another triple digit loss since yesterday and the BCI 2014 ow stands at 1,058 points – down 111!

The Panamaxes too lost nearly 100 points, to be precise 98 and the BPI ended the day at 1,234 points – strange line of the digits, 1,2,3 and 4! Coincidence or what?

The Supras joined the downfall with the BSI losing seven points, now reading 968 points…

Only the Handies’ BHSI …”escaped” the fall and gained six points, hurray hurray topping-up at 596 points…

We are please to bring you, just below, William Bennett, a Senior Analyst at VesselsValue  and the report he  has produced this week on how regional fleets have changed over 2016. It has been a difficult year in dry bulk. Despite this the Asian fleet is 7% more valuable at the end of the year:

VesselsValue15122016

Interesting and odd figures for the Wets; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) ended up with six and 24 plus points brings the respective indices at 895 and 470!

The price of WTI struggles to maintain the US$ 51, it was precisely at 51,03 (23:00gmt), but might go a bit under; you never ever know these days what goes up or down and in what proportion…

The Container trade in its entirety needs a complete revamp otherwise expect a complete fall-out!

All in all we are more than pleased that once again our prognosis and warnings were in the right direction, the market WAS / IS NOT sustainable, bankruptcies are looming in the background, wrong refinancing, even restructurings and in general people continue to throw good money after bad, save the very few who still can have access to cheap money and can buy good and low-priced second-hand  tonnage and or contract newbuildings; time to squeeze the shipyards.

Meantime just to remind you once again that despite what goes on and unfortunately many suffer, it is after all the best ever buyers’ market we have ever experienced! There is not any ill will or irony in our reporting, we DON’t hold any crystal ball whatsoever, we are just pragmatic and follow the safe side of things coupled with geopolitics which few really understand or to be honest, and possibly very few will ever understand and conversely how shipping is being affected…

 

 

 

 

Part of Fairplay's front cover dd 6 Nov. 208

Part of Fairplay’s front cover dd 6 Nov. 2008 *

Having predicted the Markets and in particular the fall of the BDI back in 2008 – more or less exactly eight years, to the detriment of the analysts and gurus, when it went under the 1,000 points mark like today, it gives me really strength to continue studying all the possibilities and reasons why it went down and get it right, right! When the right time comes, will let you know for whom and why the Markets will go upwards.

I am indebted to Fairplay in covering my speech on the Markets, which was part of the RINA/IMARST London Branch lectures and took place at Lloyd’s Register Auditorium, hence the attached picture on the left. Just obtain the copy and read, study and then just make comparisons with other mediums…

Tomorrow in the weekly recap there will be more to read on nearly all market segments…

 

The Geopolitics as expected did it yet again in all fronts:

The MIGRANTS issue following the fall of Aleppo and the final assault – hopefully, in Mosul will create further chaos!

The Syrian saga and the entire Middle Eastern problem/issue will now make a major comeback and wonder, in combination with the famous Eastern Question what will happen.

Turkey continues to upset the international community, particularly everybody in the Middle East, Caucasus, Black Sea and Europe. Expect a big mess with the Turkish president’s despicable behaviour, needless to say his blackmail oriented methods. Donald Tusk, the president of the European Commission will try to mend the EU-Turkish relationship; let him try and do please see me afterwards… Violations of Greece’s and Europe’s airspace – today 12 (twelve) more violations took place by jets belonging to the Turkish Airforce… Add the intrusions of the Turkish Navy and see what do you make… Don’t be surprised if an “accident” happens with Greece and others in the region…

Greece once again upsets the World and to be more precise its European lenders by passing a bill in its parliament to give US$ 656 mio as a relief to suffering pensioners… CAUTION! Expect a major upheaval with Greece…

BREXIT, as said yesterday, becomes every single day more and more adventurous and interesting; love it! For Shipping though, nothing much is gone to change; London will remain the Administrative capital of Shipping. End of the story!

The Brussels summit today of the 28 –  and on an occasion …27 leaders, to discuss Migrants, Syria (Aleppo) Ukraine trade and Russian sanctions is more than crucial as the festive Season begins and many things can happen. Time and results will tell.

We see Somali Piracy returning…Opppppppppppps!

President Obama will begin something on what many believe Russians where behind hacking before, during and from what we see, after the presidential elections…

Who’s not panicking with Yahoo… Another big wooooow and Opppps yet again… Hiding is never good; you can’t hide things under the sun. On the positive now: excellent comments and news from Capital Link’s 18th Annual New York event on “Invest in Greece”; it surpassed even the most optimistic views…

Congratulations to the Bornozis’ team, supporters, sponsors and all present there from  A l l  O v e r  Planet Ocean!

INTERCARGOES  Secreatry General Dr. Kostas G. Gkonis, with Katharina Stanzel - Managing Director and Nicholas Tsakos - Chairman, from INTERTANKO

INTERCARGO’s  Secreatry General Dr. Kostas G. Gkonis, with Katharina Stanzel – Managing Director and Nicholas P. Tsakos – Chairman, from INTERTANKO

On another note, the Festive Season’s social business events continue; today being no exception with the joint Open House Reception of INTERCARGO & INTERTANKO in the heart of the Square Mile. Who wasn’t there! A great afternoon with too many issues to discuss – it was like a conference. Good dips and drinks and networking and then the news come that BDI’s drop below the 1,000 points was a fact. Excellent!

That’s all for now…

Have a nice evening and be on guard for every eventuality!

* The full front cover of the Fairplay issue is here on the right below:IMG_3227

Tags: ,

Leave a Reply

IMPORTANT! To be able to proceed, you need to solve the following simple math (so we know that you are a human) :-)

What is 11 + 4 ?
Please leave these two fields as-is:

Trackbacks

Leave a Trackback