The BDI’s “recovery”, has a long way to go… so does Geopolitics

Events, Conferences,Forums and Symposiums, Markets, Military, News, Press and Media, Religion, Reports, Shipping Indices — By on February 17, 2017 at 11:39 PM

John Faraclas

The BDI’s (Baltic Dry Index) “recovery”, if it happens, has a long way to go; indeed, coupled with certain Geopolitical uncertainties will create a new shipping, trade and logistics order – part of the Planet Ocean’s Transport Chain. John Faraclas assesses the Markets and Geopolitics weekly results:

The BDI was up 31 points since yesterday at 741 and gained also 39 points since last week’s 702; every plus counts!

The volatile Capers’ BCI 2014 was up 119 (one hundred and nineteen) points since yesterday and 52 from last Friday’s closing of 687 points. Caution though as these ups and downs cannot be easily absorbed and the results are always, unfortunately negative. Also we reiterate the view that one size’s plus upturn or fall doesn’t constitute a market. Obviously the Capers’ rise added to the main index… Remind you also the valuation issue jargon…

The  Panamaxes, our most preferred and more or less stable size vis-à-vis sharp ups and downs, lost six points and the BPI reads 907, which is also minus 36 points since last week’s closing (943)…

The Supras had a “good” day with 22 points being added to the BSI which now stands at 729 – this is also 57 points plus since last week.

The Handies’ BHSI was up just four points at 391 but 14 (yes fourteen) since last week’s 10th of February 2017 closing…

So all I all, thanks mainly to the Capers, the Dry Market brings some sort of smiles…

The Wets on an upwards trend; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 869 – up 19 and 605 – up nine respectively. On a weekly basis we are pleased to see 23 and 24 points plus at 846 and 581 respectively!!!

Containers are still a headache… Caution.

Good investing in both LNG and LPG’s!

Ensure ships are demolished!

The WTI stood close to US$ 53 (US$ 52,99 to be precise) with a falling trend, but we shall see ….

The stock markets are an oxymoron given that they are doing well, very well if I may say. The Dow Jones goes yet for another record above the 20,600 points and FTSE in London is doing well close to 7,299 to be precise. That though doesn’t correlate an iota with the Markets, as in my view we are in a very special recession…

Despite all the above and the geopolitical mayhem, this is the best ever buyers’ market; we insist to acquire tonnage if you  have the funding available and a good broker to fix them.  This is and will continue to be the Market for the very very very few… Greediness and arrogancy has its day…

Will eagerly await the IME’s London event on “What’s the Bottom Line?” on the 2nd of March where we will hear on “New Possibilities for the shipping industry, Greater return on investments.” DNV GL, BIMCO and Jotun  will tell us in a nutshell how will the new ISO 19030 affect shipping’s bottom line…

The Geopolitics cannot recover for the foreseeable future as things go from worse to worse every single hour!!!

The Migrants are on top of all news all over Planet Ocean; Spain experiences an influx in its African enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla – and then to the Iberian peninsula, Malta too, Italy with its southern islands – Lampedusa and Sicily being …top of the list, Greece and its eastern Aegean islands.  Spaniards though have mixed views favouring Migrants, obviously up to a point… we shall see… A very messy situation and it remains to be seen whether the rich Islamic nations can take all these desperate people so they will be among people with the same religious ideology, practices, way of life, climate and environment. Everything outside this is a HYPE and will end up in a mess. Above all the social cohesion of European Nations is about to break.  Long ago in these reports we have focused on the region which begins from Gibraltar and covers the entire North African Med coast ending up in the highlands of Afghanistan, and from the Caucasus to the Horn of Africa. This is the world’s most vulnerable and explosive zone and can produce “earthquakes” of at least 8 (eight) on the Richter scale so to speak in the geopolitical arena. Just count how many countries, religions and situations are involved, needless to say the importance of logistics to and fro to Europe. Imagine the closure of the Suez Canal… Believe in these sagas as they have happened and have for many years disrupted the sea lanes and the dire straits… Yes in plural dire straits… China will be in a limbo… A counter for a land silk road would prove ten times more vulnerable… remember this…

Syria and Iraq coupled with ISIS and all Revolutionary anti-government groups there become too much of a hype too and the super powers as well as regional countries, will get into a deeper mess. We hear too many things happening and wonder that in 2017 we still go for wars. Many years back when I “insisted” on “War Father of all, if you don’t destroy, you cannot rebuild, this is the pitiful message in history and FROM history”, many tried to silence me… and others thought it was over the top; now you see who was right and who was wrong! Now they have it… Indeed this is the human evolution’s tragedy so to speak. Where are the Pacifists? eh!!!! Wonder what talks are really having all these guys and dolls in the G20…

Turkey continues to be, for a multiple of reasons, in the “spot light”. Internal issues, such as the forthcoming Referendum, “Democracy in crisis” following last summer’s Coup, for which we side with the fact that same was orchestrated by president Erdogan to get rid of all his opponents; his up to date actions speak for themselves. The arrests there did not take place even in Stalin’s Soviet Union… just to make a comparison. The Kurdish problem will soon become unbearable and other issues are rocking the country – the economy being in danger of collapse. Obviously the terrorists there who kill innocent people, are committing the worse crime, given also that amongst the victims are children, alike the latest in Viransehir, Sanliufra province, bordering with Syria, a mainly Arab and Kurdish area… Shame for this; we strongly condemn all these acts…

Add the strange bed-fellowing with Russia, given that for centuries Russians and Turks and their ancestors remain arch rivals and sworn enemies, except of course when they are both having to get rid of their enemies…  What an “odd-couple”; Shame!

Turkey continues to pester Greece and it won’t be long when patience evaporates from the Greek side given the unprecedented provocations. NATO should intervene as no excuses will be accepted this time. The European Union too; enough is enough! NATO should keep the same distance from both but more importantly NATO should end this Turkish provocation. We all know how Turks blackmail everybody, but still, those in power within the NATO Alliance have the means to stop this despicable Turkish pestering once and for all. The rest are damn lies; end of the story. Ah! Enforce a naval blockade and ensure there are rules of engagement vis-à-vis the Turkish authorities keeping on purpose a blind eye with the MIGRANTS letting them cross over to the Greek Islands… then to Greece’s mainland and then on to Europe; a “democratic” and “unbiased” Europe which erected Walls and Fences. The whole of Europe is also watching the trip of prime minister Yildirim in Germany to speak for the YES vote there to Turkish origin Germans for the coming Turkish referendum… that’s too much. Some say that in Germany there are nearly 4,5 to 5 mio Turks. Let’s see the reaction of the German people…

Greece next door continues to face major internal and external issues which, unfortunately, are escalating; the European Union and the IMF should end this hype with the so called Greek debt, as their terms and conditions have been counter-productive sinking completely the Greek “economy”. It is like a concentration camp. It will backfire, just wait and see… I have numerous times asked for a GREXIT, not that I don’t believe in the European Union and in the Euro, to the contrary. Given though Germany’s and Brussels despicable and inhumane behaviour, I have to advise Greeks to opt out here and now. Keep the Euro, but leave the EU, how about that? Eh! And let’s clear here and now the actual Greek Debt; enough hypocrisy and enough exaggerated figures. Demanding borrowed money is one thing, demanding scandalous borrowed money is yet another. One can see out of court settlements and get the message! The 300 MP’s of the current Greek Parliament, no matter where they belong to, are unable to perform and reform, as if they do, they will  lose votes in any forthcoming election. So what’s the remedy? Well, we have written same many times: A team of ARISTOS to rule for ten years, streamline Greece, make simultaneously arrangements for a small part of the so called debt to be repaid and carry on business as usual. Those involved in the Greek Debt Scam they will end up like the bankers we read in the news for the scams and frauds they set up – the news is full of these all over Europe, as for the rest of the World ask Mrs. Christine Lagarde… include their accomplices in Europe… Greece’s Minister for Shipping and the Aegean was in London for a two-day visit and hope he got the message; at least it seems he listens!

The Balkans are still a tinderbox ready to go up in flames yet again… Caution all over…

BREXIT continues to shake Planet Ocean to its foundations with all sorts of things and new issues appear; former PM Tony Blair’s vision so to speak, is to see the United Kingdom Remain in the European Union… Now who doesn’t respect the democratic rights of the people’s verdict: Not to vote again in a new Reeferendum, Brexit means Brexit. This situation cannot continue. Expect a lot to happen. We reiterate the view that BREXIT will be to the benefit of the British people! When article 50 is triggered expect at least two years, I say four to five, and then let’s see who the winner will be!

Europe and NATO is another unravelling situation. The Americans spell it out in the most simple way: we will contribute, defend you but we need to see the colour of your money too; end of the story!!! Vice-president Mike Pence is very determined on all issues…

Europe / Russia is yet another hiccup for all given the Ukraine and Crimea situation. Very delicate issues and it remains to be seen who will really back-off – excuse the language but… Again Mike Pence wishes to make it clear that Russia should be held  accountable for Ukraine…

USA and Russia are also facing big problems for their relation and it remains to be seen what will happen next. Russian Foreign Secretary Sergei Lavrov rejected all accusations and said that NATO still remains under the Cold War thinking… Oh well Mr. Lavrov… Oh well Mr. Pence and obviously: oh well Mrs. Merkel…

At the other side of the Atlantic the week had hiccups for president Trump. Why on earth Rt. Vice Admiral Robert Harward turned down the president’s offer to become National Security Adviser after Michael Flynn was fired?

Relations with Mexico are hot over the Wall that president Trump wants to erect and avoid the influx of illegal immigrants, criminals and drug traffickers into the USA, and amongst others we might see Roger Waters  – remember him from the Pink Floyd, go for  a gig concert against the Wall that the USA’s president wants to build there…

Too much happening in the USA and indeed there are some issues I have no more to agree with Donald Trump: the way the journalists cover things – a global phenomenon and I can assure you that the time will come that all this behaviour of certain members of the media under the proviso of “His Masters’ Voice style” will, one day, be severely punished from the international public. Enough!

In the Far East with North Korea yet again in centre stage, not just for the unacceptable ballistic missile tests threatening the entire region and the sufferings of the people there, but now for the murder of the North Korean leader’s half brother Kim Jong-nam in Kuala Lumpur’s airport whilst he was about to board a plane for Macau and received a deadly spray in his face…

In the Philippines a Duterte critic is being prosecuted for drugs… senator Leila de Lima denies the claims and says it is all politically motivated. Philippines is a country to watch in the Pacific Basin for a multiple of reasons, including the South China Sea issue…

Ex Hong Kong leader Donald Tsang is being convicted for misconduct whilst in office over a luxury flat affair…

In China itself all is ready after the New Year’s festivities as many say for business and conversely, hopefully, this will support cargoes, but there might be wrinkles… Let’s see the Business Year of the Rooster there!

Atrocities in Pakistan with over 100  militants dead after a massacre of nearly 80 in a shrine following yesterday’s attack there… ISIS is to be blamed for this atrocities. Enough! Enough! The entire Subcontinent even with controlled nukes can go up in flames with incalculable repercussions for all… India and Pakistan must find also a way to peacefully coexist… otherwise…

In Africa’s Zimbabwe, Grace Mugabe 51 wants her husband at 92 to stand for the presidency next year even if he is dead…

Africa meantime from North  to South, East to West, is in need for development and peace! Africa should cease to be the new battle-field for proxy Wars and proxy Business Wars. Let’s bring this continent to a peaceful environment and let’s give half a billion people electricity – the other half a billion have it! There is food for thought there for all… you dead well know what I mean…

And something off the norm from the news but greatly of interest due to its historical political importance:

Dr. Marina Mkhitaryan delivering her speech

“The Greeks of Armenia”, this unique illustrated lecture in English by Dr. Marina Mkhitaryan at a full house in the Friends Room of London’s Hellenic Centre was above any expectation and will remain as one of the best ever we experienced in the United Kingdom! Despite the fact that from just over 4,650 from the 1989 census, today only 900 Greeks reside in Armenia, as after the collapse of the Soviet Union many Greeks migrated to Greece and other countries… Greeks are still there! These people live in different towns and villages and speak a Pontic dialect as their ancestors are of Pontic descent and moved in Armenia as miners. Her meticulously selected slides presentation raised the interest of the audience who asked over ten questions and more afterwards. The multi-national audience, a great surprise for all, applauded her as well as her devotion in going all over the world – New York’s Greek Consulate staged a great event and one can log in this link to see same: http://www.greeknewsonline.com/the-greek-armenian-connection-at-the-greek-consulate-bringing-cultures/

There is another link also which viewers can see: https://herculean.wordpress.com/2016/02/16/back-to-the-future-the-hellenes-of-armenia/

We hope that her research continues due to the fact that Armenia is going through difficult times and consequently the remaining Greeks there. Armenia now is a small country in size like Belgium (Armenia 29,743 km² – Belgium 30,528 km²).

A full house ; here the back of the Friends room

A very touching experience also was her first exhibition in loving memory of her mother at the Hellenic Embassy in Yerevan. Armenians and Greeks have one of the strongest bonds in the region, both being victimised by the Ottoman yoke…

Being much close and being brought up in an Athenian suburb with Armenians as well as here in London – my land lady, the late philanthropist Mrs. Elda Carapiet, was Armenian and all her family spoke Greek in katharevousa, I was intrigued and ensured I had a seat to attend.

The speaker, with Sophie Kydoniefs – Chairman of the Hellenic Centre’s Executive Board, Agatha Kalisperas the centre’s director and Stamos J. Fafalios – vice-chairman of the Hellenic Centre’s Executive Board

Moreover I follow my friend Makrouhi  (Maggie) Aredjian’s efforts and events of all kinds in Greece, arts in particular…  Memories of all my Armenian and Armenian Greek friends come up, one being another philanthropist, the late Aris Kalpakian.. .

Ah! and my friend, neighbour, shipping specialist and excellent basket-ball player Levon Dedegian; Pavlina Agatzan and many more including my next door friends at IN WATER Claire and Michalis…

Memories also come from one of our trips in Singapore with one of the most unique Armenian churches there!!!!

Worth seeing her website:  www.greeksofarmenia.com.

Nauta nauta quid aportabatis?… Konstantinos Rokkos, Maria Mavroudi, Dorothea Ioannou, Katerina Stathopoulou, and Maria Angelidou in jovial mood…

In Greece and Cyprus but also all over Planet Ocean the Carnival events are on… The Propeller Club in Greece staged a great event, one of the very best ever witnessed by many! Congrats!   Many also had a great time in Venice’s Historic Carnival  which continues until the end of the month!!

Last Saturday it was the  HESGB  22nd Annual Diner and Dance; the most successful so far in London..!

Worth mentioning also the 8th Capital Link’s super event in Athens – we will brief you in full soon…

Until we revert, be on guard for every eventuality where ever you are, particularly from Terrorists et al…

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