Geopolitical chaos and Capers’ volatility cannot guarantee positive expectations

Chartering, Conferences, Seminars, Forums, Containers, Country Profiles, Cruise Ferry, Cruise Industry, LNG, LPG, Markets, News, Ro-Ro and Passenger Ferries, Shipping Indices, Statistics, Stock Markets, Tankers — By on March 9, 2017 at 11:58 PM

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) closed up 19 points at 1,064; the geopolitical chaos in all fronts creates more upheaval. John Faraclas’ daily briefing:

The Capers’ BCI 2014 gained 100 points, 78 points plus from yesterday’s rise – 22 points, and now reads 1,678! Despite this, owners should be cautious as despite the asymmetrical volatile aspect experiencing in this size, one size cannot create a healthy overall market; end of the story…

The Panamaxes’ BPI was stuck at 1,220 points; no change… and this is in continuation of para’s above point, that one size doesn’t constitute a market. Add the fact that valuers can be in a mess when giving their valuation which stands in our view as a verdict…

Supras’ BSI managed to gain four points and now reads 872 points.

Equally the Handies BHSI clinched six points and now stands at 491 – very close to the 500 mark-threshold!

So, all in all an upwards Dry Market but caution should be exercised as the volatility factor is not a healthy aspect, particularly under these low levels of being below the 2,200 BDI level) as in December 2013).

The Wets made the change; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) gained 20 and 14 points now standing at 859 and 634 respectively. Is the 1,000 point mark feasible and if so when?

The price of WTI dropped just below the US$ 50 mark. Good news for the poor masses worldwide!

The Box trade continues to be a headache despite the fact that in all major sizes there has been a small positive rise… The Alliance latest move proves that there is still a problem in the sector and liner companies have to perform and guarantee shippers’ trust in case something goes wrong… Meantime one has to watch the fact that boxships capacity, unfortunately, rises twice as fasts as trade growth despite the fact of tonnage shrinking could have other repercussions within the next two years with more deliveries in the horizon. Scrapping MUST continue, no matter the costs!! The Boxes and Containerships have to be “streamlined” AND “controlled – regulated” so to speak in order to avoid collateral damage and incalculable losses…for all stakeholders…

The LNG sector has to keep an eye as the US will saw preference to its own owners’ ships and that will be an issue. Wait and see shorty official announcements.

LPG will be in demand too, but for both sectors CAUTION on the order book…

Passenger and Cruise ships have a future despite Planet Ocean’s turbulent areas. An optimum though size is important. We suggest the 1,000 (one thousand passenger/cruise ships) capa and 300 crew; that’s it and we can defend our proposal.

Port and Terminals are very much in demand particular modern technology ones to ensure safe, quick and profitable turn around…

Geopolitics now, and here is where we stand:

The MIGRANTS continue to be messy all over Planet Ocean and maintain its position as the top of all issues.

There hasn’t been yet a clear solution of how the region around Syria and Iraq will be divided; Turkey has its own agenda but sooner or later they have to accept a new situation. Turkey MUST end this round of pestering Greece and its neighbours; it will backfire for Turkey and its backers too…

The Balkans too are another tinderbox yet again with the FYROM issue and Albanians trying to make it another mess; CAUTION. Turkey must also end its “feelings” for the region…

The Kurdish issue has an expiring date; watch this space.

Greece continues in the same pace; internally and externally another mess is yet to come, unless… Europeans and the IMF must come down to their senses as if Greece says good-bye, it’s both to blame collision, and all will come down to their knees…

The BREXIT process continues; in the meantime Hammond’s Budget is boosted by rising wages and a modest inflation. Now if his Tax hikes spell another political trouble, it remains to be seen as well as its  effects… Above all we welcome his fiscal prudence. It is important to understand that the United Kingdom bears a debt of £ 1,7 trillion… So discipline is the name of the game. In our view the way forward is difficult but targets are achievable if all embrace the BREXIT factor. Jobs, indeed jobs are of paramount importance, but one must say that Mr. Hammond has to look to the new era of automation which creates unemployment for the humans in this robotic new era…

In the European Union there is a tension from the Polish side on the re-election of Donald Tusk as European Council head… Now this is something to be noticed when your own countrymen dislike you yet the rest support you; an oxymoron’s best example…

Multi-speed Europe should not be the target as the Union will collapse. Somebody must talk to all 28, yes to all 28 heads of Governments and States what is convergence all about as they luck basic knowledge on this issue… Sixty Years on since the Treaty of Rome (1957) and all should be there; coincidentally, the Greeks also celebrate their 196th Anniversary of their Revolution against the Ottoman Turks, the great revolt which ignited the entire Balkan peninsular towards its Freedom. Today, we live more or less the same polarization from the Turks who wish to enter the European Union family, but they are NOT compatible in any way, given their behaviour. Time has proven what all along Greece has been saying for the Turkish attitude in all fronts – the EU-Turkey agreement etc etc on the MIGRANTS speaks alone… not to mention a myriad of issues.

The French presidential election continues to make waves and it remains to be seen the final outcome of a very crucial election, not just fro France, but for Europe and the world at large…

Hiccups from the USA as the US EPA’s chief Scott Pruit “would not agree” carbon dioxide being a primary contributor to global warming. He sites tremendous disagreement on the issue despite measuring the human impact on climate was very challenging…

In the Far East and in particular with North Korea’s major issue on missiles launchings, the USA are unhappy with the Chinese response… A collision is about to happen….

In India sometimes we read of very “strange” news such as the one where “an Indian Muslim woman has been targeted for singing a Hindu devotional song on a talent show” according to the BBC… religion must not see such reactions…

In Africa now and in Madagascar were five people have died due to Cuclone Enawo. 100,000 had to leave their homes given the inflicted damages from this deadly cyclone.

More news tomorrow on our weekly report.

Dr. Karayannis receiving his certificate and thanks from Keith Lilley

On another tone now we are pleased to tell you that the RINA’s London Branch event at the Lloyd’s Register’s auditorium was one of the best ever on the issue of the Environment and Dr. Theofanis Karayannis from the IMO’s Sub-division for protective Measures, Marine Environment Division, delivered an excellent slides presentation. Titled “Hot Environmental Topics – what is taking place in the IMO” was a very well attended and important event given what takes place and what will take place soon on hte environmental front affecting the entire shipping industry and its stakeholders.. It provided us with an overview of the broad range of the environmental topics currently under consideration at the IMO, and focusing primarily on the most important outcomes and ongoing deliberations in the context of the MEPC and the sub-committee on PPR. We will revert with a full write up.

Have a nice evening and be on guard for every eventuality wherever are, particularly from pirates and terrorists of all kinds – onboard / ashore…

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