Is Capers’ rise a bubble or the start for a sustainable upturn…?

Markets, News, Piracy and Terrorism, Reports — By on March 17, 2017 at 11:48 PM

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) continued to rise all through the week and now, with 24 plus points earlier on today, stands at 1,196 points. Geopolitics though are very dodgy and as we have warned, needless to remind you what you and all of us experienced this last week globally, can be a major issue. John Faraclas’ weekly recap:

The BDI was on a steady upturn given the Capers’ rise and gained 110 points since last week’s 1,086 points.

The Capers, as volatile as ever continued their rise and gained another triple digit today, 148 points reaching the 2,413 enviable, for the period, level. On a weekly basis the BCI 2014 gained 624 points – from the 1,789 level of the 10th of March…  CAUTION as this asymmetrical rise might cause discomfort…

The Panamaxes continued their controlled and contained so to speak fall; nothing spectacular, but it is worrying. The BPI ended the day at 1,108 points – that’s minus 21 since yesterday and 103 points down since last Friday’s 1,211…

“Smiles” for seeing the Supras “moving” up two points at 879 following its “grounding” and stagnation at 877 for nearly a week. It was good to see the BSI up five points from last week’s 874 points…

The Handies’ BHSI remained as per yesterday’s level at 508 but gained 13 points since last Friday’s 495 points…

So “thanks” to the Capers we have an “upturn”… These market figures pauses dangers …so extra caution should be exercised…

The Wets with mixed feelings yet again; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans)  stood at 832 – that’s minus three and 701 – that’s 21 points plus respectively. On a weekly basis the BDTI was down 30 points (from 862) and the BDTI stood at 638 – 63 points up!!!

Good news in our view with the WTI’s price – it stood at the end of the day below the US$ 50 mark, US$ 48, 72 was a satisfactory closure for the poor masses all over Planet Ocean!

I was reading some points and views during this last week, one of them being …”NOT to order new tonnage…”; nonsense, it is a free world and I do what I want, subject I have the logic and the intuition of what I am doing without involving other peoples money, including those from banks and financial institutions… Some piece of advice being aired with respect what to do and so on is also nonsense as nobody will really tell you what to do. Serious shipping business people having their business senses don’t say an iota… END OF THE STORY!.

We are living in interesting times not only in Geopolitics during 2017  – and what will come beyond that, but also in the entire Maritime Industry and we expect to see monumental changes and also major Catastrophes beyond any business imagination. Shipping, as we believe, turns slowly slowly but steadily towards Shipping for the very very very few.

The main issue, top of the list in Geopolitics, remained that of MIGRANTS with the addition of further threats by Turkey’s political establishment; sheer blackmail and it remains to be seen not the verbal replies by the EU and its leaders as well as separately from various other nations that the Turkish yoke provokes, threatens and accuses, but their actions. NATO too has to saw zero tolerance on Turkish aggression. We hope that Mrs. Merkel’s visit in Washington could deal with this matter appropriately if she knows how to “phrase” same to president Trump…

The situation in Syria and Iraq with the ISIS and all the other functions fighting an unending war destined to divide once again the entire Middle East and give Putin’s Russia the very much needed basis there continues and it remains to be seen how long it will take to rebuild the entire region as both countries are flatten – far worse than what happened to Vietnam…

Turkey’s involvement in the region must end and the Western world must find the strength to oust the Turks as this is the most pathetic behaviour we have witnessed ever since the end of the Second World War! Can Turkey become a reliable and real democratic and more than that a nation supporting stability and peace in the region respecting existing treaties? Turkey’s economy hangs in the balance and Erdogan is “capable” of exporting his domestic catastrophe to save his skin and equally that of his followers… Expect a messy outcome and a spill over destabilising the entire region…

Greece next door continues to be in a limbo; time for this Muppet Puppet Show to hand over power to a team of Aristos and the entire opposition to fully agree with this move. There is not any hope that the current parties and their leaders can save Greece. – Imagine if no solution is found with the lenders – EU and the IMF, and PM Tsipras proceed with yet another loan and make austerity the name of the game to remain in power and strangulate Greeks to the very end – this is what he has achieved so far!

BREXIT despite the hiccups proceeds further; about 44 percent fully believe its outcome will bring at the end of the day a better deal for the United Kingdom. The Free Trade aspect is that will be good for the United Kingdom and Europe – end of the story… A thorny issue, as always is Scotland’s first minister’s insistence for another referendum on Scottish  Independence. Mrs May, and rightly so, says “now is not the time”. On another development former Chancellor George Osborne will lead the Evening Standard succeeding Sarah Sands as editor; interesting…

Mark Rutte’s win in The Netherlands was a very decisive one! All we want to see now is what happens to the very much heated French and Germans elections…

At the other side of the Atlantic president Trump tells Angela Merkel that both have been wiretapped by president Obama… we shall see… On the business front he believes in ethical trade whilst Mrs. Merkel in free trade; I say I say, what an exchange that was!

America might also react according to logic vis-à-vis the North Korean aggression and president Trump might saw ZERO tolerance; caution, but North Korea has gone over the top with the missiles tests… China is also trying to mediate, but… also US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson maintains to do everything possible to prevent conflict. We shall see, but we do not rule out a pre-emptive action given North Korean’s leader stubbornness and ultra provocative action against all in the region. Remember that Japan cannot accept such a despicable behaviour from North Korea…

Katerina Peristeri and Natasha Svetzouri, president of the Macedonian Society in Great Britain

On another tone and …note what a great evening that was at the Great Hall of London’s Hellenic Centre! “The Tumulus Kastas and the Lion of Amphipolis 2012-2014” , an excellent illustrated lecture with nearly one hundred slides and digital video 3D projections by Katerina Peristeri, archaeologist, director of excavations at Kasta Tumulus and honorary director of antiquities, attracted 200 seated guests and 50 plus at the balcony; who wasn’t there. It was about time to attend such an event in London where the majority of the attendees where British! Good to see from the shipping and logistics point of view the method of transporting the marble slabs from nearby Thasos island to Amphipolis. Congratulation to the Macedonian Society of Great Britain for organising the event. Afterwards we were lucky and privileged to dine with the speaker and the secretariat of the MSGB at the nearby restaurant The Real Greek and discuss tête-à-tête many issues.

An interesting week is coming up with respect of Conferences and Forums:

The 11th Capital Link International Shipping Forum  in New York this coming Monday the 20th of March to be followed by Invest in Cyprus Forum again in New York on the 22nd of March.

At the other end of Planet Ocean in the  Far East, Informa’s Intermodal Asia 2017 in Shanghai on 21-23 March!

View all these events and others either via their respective banners within ALLABOUTSHIPPING or log on for these and more in the UPCOMING Events.

Have a nice weekend be on guard for every eventuality particularly from pirates and terrorists of all kinds all over Planet Ocean!

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