The falling Markets are here to stay unless…

Chartering, Containers, Dry Bulkcarriers, Events, Markets, Military, News, Reports, Shipping Indices, Statistics, Stock Markets, Tankers — By on April 28, 2017 at 11:21 PM

John Faraclas

Another falling day AND week when the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) and the Wets too lost steam… Geopolitics are now in point of NO return; John Faraclas’ daily and weekly recap …all in one:

The BDI lost 25 points and now reads 1,109; on a weekly basis it lost 86 points – from last week’s 1,195 points and now seems that things can only change by an Act of War…

The Capers’ fall was a bit contained – minus 19 today and 51 since last Friday the 21st of April. The BCI 2014 now stands at 1,779 points down from 1,830…

The Panamaxes suffered major losses; on a daily basis the BPI lost 73 points now reading 1,187 and on a weekly basis 307 !!!! (from 1,494)… CAUTION

The Supras too on a downwards mode; the BSI lost nine points today, standing at 861 and were minus 34 since last week’s 895 points!

The Handies were minus ten at 559 and 16 points down from last Friday’s 575…

Who’s gone to “bring” another 1,100 points to reach the December 2013 levels? Eh!!! This addition might save the day, but… slim chance…

The Wets produced an excitement with their earliest fall in months – percentage wise given that all expected to see the conquering of the 1,000 points; tough! The last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 786 – minus 11, and 620 – minus 17 respectively. On a weekly basis both were down 33 and 40 points from 819 and 660 respectively…

Given the above figures, now one can see how difficult is to rely on ships’ valuations… The fluctuations and volatility doesn’t produce the appropriate figures and the ships values do not correlate with the situation…

The WTI got moving up approaching the US$50  mark– now at 49,69…. CAUTION here too…

The “unless”, in the title of this report, stands for War, the only means to improve the Markets as a last resort, which will be “regretted” by all… at the  end… the usual damn lies… Where are the diplomats and the marketeers to improve the markets and the standard of living for the 7.5 billion people on Planet Ocean???? We will be glad to challenge you live on a A1 TV station any time! (we are referring to the analysts and mega brokers as well as lenders, economists and “politicians”)

Shipping is turning towards becoming Shipping for the very, very, very few!

On the Geopolitical front now being the most important factor from all affecting the entire shipping industry to all and for all intents and purposes; yesterday we covered a lot of issues and the same we attempt today:

The Migrants continue to be still on top of all the issues all over Planet Ocean – unfortunately this issue will remain for the foreseeable future. Add that the majority are desperate people being exploited by all and everyday news is full of their lives and life stories miles away, sometimes thousand of miles away from their counties of origin and above all the natural environment causing problems for themselves and the countries they arrive… Social cohesion for the receiving the MIGRANTS countries is paramount and same needs to be maintained. Many, in their effort to reach “safe heavens”,  are mainly lost at sea… and this is something one cannot forget or ignore and also forgive those who intentionally or unintentionally allow same to happen. On the antipode though among the MIGRANTS are Terrorists and time and again, following respective incidents, we see despicable behaviour and we need to thoroughly check and be vigilant for Terrorists particularly Islamists looming in the background; SHAME!

The Wars in Syria and Iraq will soon spill over and as said yesterday we need ASAP the ground forces to do what they have to do in these circumstances; otherwise expect the issue of MIGRANTS and other displaced people to widen…and the wars of this kind to continue. We can “understand” why the conflict continues by all in the region and the “vested” interests of others and we consider this simply:  pathetic! No excuses, particularly when MIGRANTS turn or are Terrorists.-

Turkey continues to pester its neighbours and blackmail all including the superpowers; this “acceptance” or keeping a blind eye with the Turks, particularly of Erdogan and his likes could backfire and the true West and Christiandome might suffer. Turkey and Turks with all due respect might become a liability for all. CAUTION!

Greece next door continues to slide in chaos and the financial strangulation of the Greek people relentlessly continues by those chosen to govern and pay back Greece’s lenders. The Greek public owes NOTHING! As we have numerous times said, this is the world’s biggest scam and one day will backfire. Still those Greeks and their accomplices – particularly from abroad who harmed Greece and its people, are more or less free to move around and this is despicable… Wait to see when the shit will hit the fan…

In the Balkans the warmongers are ready for yet another round of wars following those in former Yugoslavia. Albanians still dream Greater Albania; in FYROM there might be a civil war; in Kosovo the situation is messy; Croatia is in political turmoil… In Bosnia-Hercegovina there are more than three in a tango and it seems to us the situation will get murky. Serbia will not seat this time idle; equally Russia… Moldova is also messy and Romania and Bulgaria struggle financially… Montenegro flirts strongly now with NATO…

In the Black Sea now, Ukraine and Russia still at odds with Crimea and eastern Ukraine’s rebels. Caution as Putin with his actions has told us his limits.

Ah! Add the relationship there too with Russia and Turkey at odds, despite the phenomenal relationship which is deep down marred with the issues of the Syrian saga and Kurds. A bit in a distance Iran is closely watching developments North-West and South…

Israel too gets very much affected with the developments in Syria, Iraq and Iran – needless to say with many issues still unsettled with the Palestinians and to a leaser extend with others in the region… CAUTION

So, as you can see, the heavily overburden region described above – and in the past, that is to say from Gibraltar to Afghanistan and from Caucuses to the Horn of Africa can produce reactions of mega megatons! This in turn, as we have already warned, affects shipping, due to the issue of the Straits, the dire straits of shipping linking the sea-lanes: Aden, Constantinople, Gibraltar, Hormuz, Otranto, Suez; even the Straits of Malacca. What will the Chinese do if the dire straits leading their tonnage to Europe are blocked? Will they revive the Silk Road… a very vulnerable project… Religion is another factor for the entire region covered; CAUTION!!!!

More north now into Europe, a bit North West and Central…:

BREXIT, the most complex of all European issues since the Treaty of Rome, threatens to rock the Mighty Continent. The problem in our view rests with Continental Europe and NOT the United Kingdom, and despite what they will agree on tomorrow, it remains to be seen at the end of the day, who has the last laugh! The United Kingdom post the forthcoming election on the 8th of June will embark in a historic move to defend to all intents and purposes all its rights for its sovereignty as well as for its people and we are sure that for certain all Europeans living in these Isles will continue to enjoy the benefits deriving from its moral obligations and visa-versa, the Britons in the Continent will continue the current benefits.  It seems odd what the anti-BREXIT British and Continental media say, but things are very different from the propaganda against the United Kingdom; end of the story.

Opposite in the Channel, French frenzy with the second round of the presidential election on the 7th of May continues. The interest is not of who could be the best person – same applied in the first round, but others want to see there. This is in our view the French establishment’s last chance. As stressed yesterday, let’s say Macron wins; what about the prime minister to be, eh!

Germany too feels the election fever with Mrs. Merkel  gearing up; if she wins it will be a Pyrrhic victory; remember this…

Italy is heavily indebted and might burst, it mighty burst badly.

Add other problems of the Med EU nations and see what you get.

Add on top the Eastern EU nations and see what’s coming up!

Scandinavians keep well, despite some threats from the Russians… The Baltic States though are feeling the pressure, but…

At the other side of the Atlantic president Trump completes 100 “controversial” days in power. Never ever before in the history of the USA has been such a flow of unique news and actions deriving from a president. Surely Mr. Trump will leave a legacy behind – wait and see… Plentiful of “engagements” – that of North Korea is a very important one, and we just learned that the last ballistic missile test ended in disarray there… Any …curse from the Americans, or the Chinese, or lady luck had its day…? On another tone the Arctic Drilling can be seen as a creator of wealth and with discipline the environment can be protected – there is always a way!

In South America, following the troubles in Venezuela we now have a …burst in Brazil – caution there as the situation politically and economically is messy… The strike, the first general strike in the country for almost 20 years, despite beginning peacefully it ended abruptly and the main issue of the pensions reforms must be appropriately tackled by president Temer…

In Asia now: the Taliban in Afghanistan announced their spring offensive; CAUTION!

In China human rights lawyer Li Heping was sentenced in a close door trial with three years suspended jail term for subverting state power.

George Manginis at the podium delivering his speech – on the screen George Eumorfopoulos

On another tone now and the World of Arts and Culture which is greatly interwoven with shipping are on a focal point; what a great event /  speech that was at the Friends Room in London’s Hellenic Centre earlier on tonight! George Manginis delivered a unique slides presentation on “China Rediscovered: The Benaki Museum Collection of Chinese Ceramics”. Following last year’s exhibition at the Benaki Museum in Athens showcasing 90 Chinese ceramics, a collection from a total of 800 donated by the Chiot-origin London collector George Eumorfopoulos between 1929 and 1936. Manginis presented the Eumorfopoulos’ donation and discussed the challenges, choices and outcomes of the wider project of research and re-launching a collection of Chinese art in 21st century Greece.

l to r:  Agatha Kalisperas, George Manginis, Sophie Kydoniefs and Stamos J. Fafalios who introduced the speaker

A great account for Eumorfopoulos who was also a member of the Baltic Exchange!!!! We hope to be able to bring you in full the entire slides presentation.

Spotted some shipping friends from the London Greek Shipping Fraternity and many many others. Excellent. Ensure you get the book!

May we take this opportunity to wish you a nice long weekend including this very special Bank Holiday on the First of May… and be on guard as always from every eventuality vis-à-vis Pirates and Terrorists!

Updated: 23:19

First upload at 15:21

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