Capers cannot define the market… nor a market

Chartering, Energy, Markets, News, Piracy and Terrorism, Politics and Government, Reports, Shipfinance, Shipping Indices, Statistics — By on May 11, 2017 at 11:37 PM

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) gained seven points since yesterday – thanks to the Capers, and now stands at 1,012. The Geopolitics as we have warned you are on a turning point and wonder what next… John Faraclas’ daily recap:

The Capers with 50 points plus lifted the BCI 2014 at 1,695 points and very simply “dominate” an otherwise falling  dry market, a market losing steam…

The Panamaxes were down  five points with the BPI standing six point away from the 1,000 threshold; CAUTION as if it goes below things can be critical..

The Supras’ BSI down three at 787… and

The Handies’ BHSI remained flat-out at 510 points.

This is NOT a healthy dry market as one size CANNOT constitute a market – sometimes we’ve seen this with the Panamaxes but very minimal…

The Box trade according to a few analysts and owners is getting better; we doubt it!

The Wets continued their fall; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) lost nine – 763, and four  – 546 points respectively…

The WTI struggles but managed to remain at a fractio  below the US$ 48 – US$ 47,98 to be precise.

Boxships still feeling the uncertain markets and amid mergers and possible collapses the situation is very unclear… CAUTION

Meantime, from VesselsValue we have the following interesting report on the Greek newbuidling orders dominating 2017; here it goes:

We have been following the number of newbuild orders that have been placed since the start of 2017 and have put together some data following the top orders of newbuild tonnage. VesselsValue Deals database shows that Greek owners have placed 35 orders for new bulkers and tankers since the start of 2017. Globally only 119 orders have been placed. Here are the top five ordering countries:

Here are the Greek owners who have ordered newbuildings so far this year by number of vessels and the market value of these newbuilding contracts on the day of the order. This measure of value differs to the order value spent at the yard.

 

Many in the shipping industry are worried that there is an imbalance of supply and demand between the number vessels currently on the water and the amount of cargoes. This situation does not look to improve in the near future as there is just under 66 million DWT of tankers and bulkers to be delivered during the rest of 2017, representing 47% of the current bulker and tanker order book:

Over the last 5 years, a major source of finance & investment in the newbuilding market came from the private equity sector who invested heavily to capitalise in the post-crash market downturn.

Today the preference from the private equity sector is to invest in tonnage already delivered and on the water so that an immediate return on their investment can be realised.

This led to a lack of newbuilding finance available and resulted in a gap in deliveries at the major shipyards and therefore increased appetite from them to take orders.

In early 2017 the cash rich Greek community took advantage of this, securing a number of orders at competitive prices.

As we progress through 2017, yard capacity has reduced but continued buying demand from the private sector remains. This is one of the major factors that has led to the increase in newbuilding prices over the past 5 months.

The geopolitics might bring unexpected situations all over Planet Ocean and if our sinking feeling is correct, oh! boy, the shit will hit the fan…

The MIGRANTS continue to dominate the news not only in the entire Med, but everywhere.

The Wars in Syria and Iraq are getting more perplexed… and Peace seems so far away… War Father of All with whatever this entails… we expect after our coalition wins, to name and same all supporters of ISIS, particularly those arming them!!!! we expect to see the appropriate humiliation!

Turkey’s tests 280 miles-range missiles in the Black Sea; very simply the Turks, particularly under Erdogan will make it hell for all in the region and beyond. Caution… It is about time for a “pre-emptive” reprimand of the Turks… Don’t ask what happens within Turkey; an everyday en mass arrest saga takes place. The regime targets all its civil servants world wide that it dislikes and asylum seekers have a lot to do to save diplomats, military personnel, student, you name it…

In Greece there is more mess yet to come unless all is done as per the book no matter how harsh reality punishes ALL wrong doers over the last 40 (forty) years in particular… Oblivion one day will end and then as we believe the shit will hit the fan… For the shipping affairs we propose: Hands off the Merchant Marine Ministry – we have over the last  couple of days explained what is being attempted…

PM Tsipras will try again his luck in China…The current regime and all in the greek parliament don’t want to do the right thing! Wonder what the Chinese have to advise him on Turkey’s continued violation of Greece’s airspace… as yesterday there have been 40 (forty) violations.

In the meantime the Chinese are very …contradictory with the South Koreans vis-à-vis the Thaad missile system deployed and made operational – aiming to intercept a North Korean attack, as they claim same can spy China’s territory… If China really wants peace in the region they should talk “business” with the North Koreans… We expect some seriousness…

BREXIT continues and former greek finance minister Varoufakis made again another gaffe; he sent an open letter to Mrs. May on Europe, Brexit etc. If he was that great he should had won the argument and Greece was going to be saved, but… he didn’t know the platoon well enough and his opponents in Europe.

France’s Macron works non-stop to form his party’s squad for next month’s parliamentary elections… Caution as things might backfire. In the meantime he expects to meet Germany’s PM Angela Merkel…

In the USA president Trump says he is NOT under any investigation. Let’s see where this sage with the FBI, the Russians et al leads or ends.-

In South America’s most powerful nation, that’s Brazil president Temer tries hard for economic reforms a year after Roussef’s impeachment…Tough…

In Africa’s turbulent Somalia the government is doing its best and the London Conference is a great step with Somalia and its backers to fight the al-Shabab militants. This security pact with the international community affects us all positively given the past Piracy and Terrorism events which shook shipping…

All in all there is mystery in the air, from fake news to nonsense and an expectation that during these …”peaceful  days” something big will come out/appear… So be on guard as same might disrupt the maritime trade…

Jim Heath

On another note, during launch time we attended  an excellent and timely presentation by Jim Heath, principal specialist at Lloyd’s Register on Ship Recycling. Titled “Ship Recycling Legislation – 3 years on and counting” the speaker delivered an excellent and detailed slides recap of what happened and what is going to happen including a time table. Will soon have a write up; watch this space!

Wish you and nice evening  and be on guard for every eventuality from Pirates and Terrorist of any kind…

 

 

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