Daily Overview of Global Markets & the SEE Region (Monday, June 26, 2017)

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Dr. Platon Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager, Eurobank Ergasias S.A.,

HIGHLIGHTS

WORLD ECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

GLOBAL MARKETS: The majority of European equity markets opened higher on Monday on the prevailing view that global economic recovery remains broadly intact. Elsewhere, long-dated US Treasuries and Bunds retained a positive tone supported by a slowdown in inflation dynamics. In FX markets, USD remained under pressure on the view that in an environment of subdued US inflation, the Fed will likely pursue a slower pace of rate tightening compared to that reflected in the latest Fed “dot plots” released two weeks ago. Looking at this week’s calendar, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to give a speech at an event in London on Tuesday while the US administration will attempt to push the healthcare bill through Congress before the July 4th Independence Day. On the data front, euro area June CPI and US May core PCE, both due on Friday, are among the most interesting data releases.

GREECE: According to the Compliance Report for the 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece the next disbursement could amount to 8.5 billion and its size takes into account the utilization of available domestic resources for debt service as well as arrears clearance. Out of this amount €7.7 billion are to be received now and used partly (€6.9 billion) for debt service and partly (€0.8 billion) for state arrears clearance. The remaining amount of €0.8 billion could be made available for arrears clearance after the summer. In other news, on June 23rd Moody’s upgraded Greece’s long-term issuer rating as well as all senior unsecured bond and programme ratings to Caa2 and (P)Caa2 from Caa3 and (P)Caa3, respectively. The outlook has been changed to positive from stable.

SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE

BULGARIA: Bulgarian equities finished mostly higher last week. Yields on the domestic sovereign debt market slid between 4 to 11 bps in the short and long-end of the curve, leaving the belly largely unchanged. Elsewhere, Eurobond prices marked no major changes.

SERBIA: The European Commission opened yesterday two more chapters under the country’s EU accession negotiations.

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Daily Overview June 26 2017

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