Daily Overview of Global Markets & the SEE Region (Tuesday, July 04, 2017)

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Dr. Platon Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager, Eurobank Ergasias S.A.,

HIGHLIGHTS

WORLD ECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

GLOBAL MARKETS: Taking their lead from the negative tone in Asian bourses, major European equity markets opened lower today giving back part of recent gains on geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, US Treasuries came under renewed selling pressure on positive domestic data supporting market optimism over a rebound in US Q2 GDP. In FX markets, USD was firmer on the day supported by higher than expected manufacturing-related data. AUD was among the main underperformers after RBA disappointed some market participants expecting it to adopt a slightly hawkish tilt at today’s monetary policy meeting. Focus today is on ECB chief economist Peter Praet who participates in a panel at 14:30 CET. US markets are closed due to the Independence Day holiday.

GREECE: According to press reports there are still a couple of pending actions to be fulfilled before the ESM disburses the next loan tranche of €7.7bn to Greece. The Management Board of the ESM is scheduled to convene tomorrow by teleconference to potentially give the green light for the disbursement of the next tranche if the above actions have been fulfilled. Otherwise, the decision could be postponed for the 13th or 14th of July. The June 2017 Markit Manufacturing PMI for Greece came in at 50.5, up from 49.6 in May. According to ELSTAT the seasonally adjusted overall volume index in retail trade in April 2017 increased+2.1%MoM and +2.9%YoY

SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE

ROMANIA: The Central bank maintained at its MPC meeting yesterday interest rates unchanged at 1.75% and MRRs for FX and RON denominated liabilities at 8% each, in a widely anticipated decision.

CESEE MARKETS: Emerging market assets were mostly under pressure earlier today as risk sentiment soured amid geopolitical tensions in North Korea. The recent rise in core government bond yields also continued to dent their high yield allure. Meanwhile, trading was thin as the US is closed today on national holiday.

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