Falling BDI, turbulent Geopolitics leads to Armageddon

Associations, Breaking News, Bribery and Corruption, Chartering, Containers, Dry Bulkcarriers, Energy, Environment, European Union, Gas, Immigration, Markets, Military, News, Oil Industry, Organisations, Religion, Safety and Security, Sanctions, Shipfinance, Statistics, Stock Markets, Tankers, Trade and Commerce — By on July 10, 2017 at 11:44 PM

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) fell two points and now reads 820; the entire Geopolitical spectrum leads with mathematical accurancy to a modern and ultra-destructive Armageddon. John Faraclas’ daily report:

With minimal and controlled losses the BDI now reads 820 points – a crucial point and caution should be observed. The risk assessors have spectacularly failed in their dry market prognosis – same applies for the Wets and the containers…

The BCI 2014 lost 23 points and the Capers are in “temporarily” mess at 730 points which if it doesn’t change or  fall below the 730 points-threshold, will be detrimental for the other sizes too – intimately, I feel we might soon see the slight upturn… but… China plays, unfortunately a “leading” …role in this size, particularly given the wrong perception that China is everything. Wake up: there are other markets we must untap!  One nation’s demand and or supply mode cannot stigmatise the markets. China is losing steam!

The Panamaxes’ BPI lost just one points – steady so to speak at 1,061 points…

The Supras’ BSI down three at 729 points…

The Handies’ BHSI clinched another three points – now reading 474 points…

The Wets with mixed feelings; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 649 – up two, and 580 minus three respectively… Not a nice picture either…

The Containerships are still in my humble view in limbo – the G7 and G20 meetings failed to create the right environment for trade and support the masses with products ending the poverty numbers which are alarmingly on the rise!!! Caution! The Environment still bothers the lot but no moves to save same appears.

Some interesting news / developments in the very important aspect/issue of valuations: VesselsValue has teamed up with ViaMar, an Oslo based shipping advisory firm, to produce Future Market Values (FMVs) for each vessel in the Tanker, Bulker, Container and LPG fleet (circa 40,000 vessels). It enables our clients to instantly predict future sale prices of individual vessels, fleets or user defined portfolios until the predicted end of each vessel’s life.

ViaMar was established in 1996 in Norway by Reidar Sundvor and the late Even Engelstad. They provide objective analysis of shipping markets and employ a fundamental model. Viamar, like VesselseValue, strongly believe that all analysis must be backed up by robust and transparent automated models.

To further this aim, with all forecasts are compared against VV market values in real time to produce live accuracy statistics, a feature no other provier offers. See teh attached image ‘Aframax Future Values’.

VesselsValue have been receiving demands from clients are want to use FMV as one input in their scenario analysis work, with many also using DCF, linear depreciation and demolition values as other inputs.

Separately, VV’s core banking clients compliance departments are also actively using the new functionality to check values over the tenure of the loan.

 

The WTI dropped below the US$ 44… CAUTION

The BWM issue gets stuck… Alas!

The Warring environment is also a factor affecting the entire shipping industry in all sectors. Enough from official fake news…

The shipfinance front hits the all-time low within the last ten years… Wonder when the bankers seat in the dock together with the brokers and the shipyards… This is what they deserve…

The Geopolitics as have said all through the last ten days, on purpose very briefly, are crucial and it is very difficult to catch up with all these developments in all fronts…

The Migrants maintained the lead all over… with terrifying things happening in the Greek islands, North Africa – central north in particular, Italy, Malta and Spain. Shame!

The G20 was and still remains yet another palaver. All are now searching to find out why all the mess in Hamburg from the demonstrations there… What a palaver! This also diffuses the real issues discussed there – you all know and that nothing real happened or achieved. A PR exercise… The meetings of world leaders – those either up and coming and those believing that their sayings attract their own countries’ masses were a joke… It is the environment stupid!!!

The Wars in Syria and Iraq still on with fears that after ISIS fall in Mosul the Terrorists will regroup again… In Syria itself no much is being really released. Too many war functions there spoil the “Peace Deal”… Expect the continuation of the mess; this is now a total inhumane issue… Beware of Nemesis – it never forgets to pay you back…its respond will be lethal, particularly against the protagonists of these destructive plans destabilising the entire region…

Turkey still interferes all over and it has become a pariah state given its behaviour in all fronts; European, periphery, Middle East and its wider periphery, you name it!

Cyprus continues to produce uncertainty for Peace all over the Island and the Eastern Med region – possibly beyond that, as Turkey, being once again the stumbling block, refused on purpose to put forward pragmatic proposals to end this long standing saga. It is now more than evident that all super powers involved, speak a double language and this, one day might backfire – history has many such examples. Stop insulting both the people of Cyprus and Peace itself! The Crans Montana talked become the …Crash Montana talks! Who can really has the guts to solve the Cyprus issue? Eh!!!

Greece in continuous mess too with the current coalition government doing its best to remain in Power – that’s its only task! The entire opposition promises too to save the country, and in particular the leader of the opposition, but let’s be pragmatic: can he deliver? Can he save the country? Greece needs only an Aristos Government; end of the story (read all our previous references on what is an Aristos’ government).

The Balkans and in particular the western Balkans are still in a mess and might produce even another war with possibly the destabilation of the entire Black region too. Caution!

In the Black Sea with the Crimea issue being pushed by the wets and the eastern Ukraine in limbo one must understand that Putinism style  geopolitics will prevail no matter the sanctions – seriously what sanctions and against whom? The Russian people? Rubbish! They have been subjected to 72 years of despicable Communism …err Socialism and nothing can affect them. Three generations under “sanctions”.  One should know to draw the line and win outright; not by these propaganda means… you dead well know what I mean… Putin needs to find yet his match…

The BREXIT saga continues and now becomes more that evident not just how perplexed the situation is, but how unwise the European Union structure has been drafted. Shame on you all, as at the end of the day, no matter the end result and agreements and all that jazz, it is the people who will suffer from both sides of the Channel!

In the United Kingdom Mrs. May is trying her best amid elements of the media and a populist lefty loony opposition who can’t see or deliver beyond their nose… Mrs. May was appointed prime Minister now she has been elected! Majority? Majority in this instance colludes with Socrates’ issue; the view of the few and that of the hoi polloi…

The Germans MUST get their act together as too much of haughtiness can backfire and very soon. Enough Mrs. Merkel! Your party might win another term but who might also destroy Europe…

At the other side of the Atlantic the rumours leading to revelations about a possible Russian interference in the American presidential elections must be fully examined and when the truth becomes an unchallenged fact, to be announced no matter the cost for all involved. Name and Shame even if it involves religious issues! It is a must, as otherwise nobody will ever have a single iota of trust to no one form all those named and involved in any way, conversely to all politicians. You need two in a tango and only fire can produce smoke… Time to see the truth shine. All things being equal, if all is known and documented then “give to Caesar what is Caesar’s, and to God what is God’s”; end of the mythos…

In South America two neighbouring countries produce interesting news; Venezuela which is sliding to anarchy and Colombia from where we might hear some good news on the FARC’s Peace process with the country’s president Santos – a Nobel Peace winner, doing his best. We shall see.

The Valgono wharf in Rio de Janeiro is being declared by UNESCO a World Heritage site. Nearly one million slaves emanating from Africa have landed there …

All in all, South America must get its act together and understand that Socialism …err Communism is over. Also bribery and corruption MUST end as soon as possible paving the way to a better life for all…

In the Pacific basin, things are not so pacifist… China’s role in the entire Peace process is being jeopardised by Beijing’s double language. Banning tourists going to South Korea given the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) to protect the South Koreans from the North’s possible attack confirms whose behind North Korea… China MUST understand that we don’t live anymore in the 50’s or 70’s  with the Korean and Vietnam wars.

Japan and the USA are also synchronising the defences as China’s aggressive policy in the South China Sea is a threat to all and in particular for Shipping and Trade. Both countries latest drill in the region must “tip” China to give it another thought…

Good news for Mrs. May; the Australians are keen to have a trade deal with the United Kingdom.

In Africa another major issue / story come from Somali with a big question: who’s affecting the southern country’s internet …connection…

Congo’s election delay might be a declaration for war… Caution!

Our tip for all: be on guard for the Armageddon has arrived, thanks to the “democratic” politicians and their cronies, their business hooligan accomplice. This might affect shipping. Remember the dire straits – Suez, Malacca, Bosphorus, Aden, Hormuz to name but a few…, might deliver mess which might spill all over… Add the energy issues and see what you might see tomorrow…

That’s more or less some the major news affecting the shipping markets. Have a nice evening and be on guard from any incident emanating from Pirates and Terrorism…

P.S. If any objection we would be more than pleased to entertain you live on any A1 TV station live!!

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