Be cautious with the BDI and Geopolitics

Bribery and Corruption, Chartering, Dry Bulkcarriers, Energy, Environment, Immigration, Maritime Fraud, Markets, Safety and Security, Ship Finance, Shipfinance, Shipping Indices — By on July 18, 2017 at 11:09 PM

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) “raises” hopes given its 20 plus points rise, but be cautious as things are not that promising and in any case we are far apart the December 2013 level of 2,277 points – 1,345 points down! Geopolitics are not just an enigma, they are a harsh reality and any time now things can get sour.  John Faraclas daily report:

The BDI with the 20 plus points gained earlier on today – now standing at 933 bring an air of optimism, but we observe caution.

The Capers despite losing steam yesterday, today clinched 51 points and now the BCI 2014 reads 984 points approaching the 1,000 point threshold. CAUTION yet again!

The Panamaxes’ BPI rise continued with 24 points plus and same reads 1,226 points…

The Supras’ BSI managed a ten point plus – now standing at 786 points…

The Handies’ BHSI continued its rise with three points plus – now at 492 approaching slowly but steadily the 500 points psychological level…

Did I hear you say boxships?  still a long way to go for even a slight recovery…

LNG’s and LPG’s are markets to watch as Port and Terminal infrastructure is the real name of the game; add the energy choices… and see what you get… And shale???

Short sea shipping is a good investment but you need governments and bankers to understand its functions; indeed they can affect part of Oceangoing shipping, but…

The Wets still with mixed feelings; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) gained four points – now at 648 and lost two – now standing at 549 respectively.

Despite many opting to “accuse” overcapacity for the state of the market, we reiterate the view that this is the best time to built modern tonnage with all the new rules in place and also the low prices still prevailing. The best and most capable shipowners will fix their tonnage AND some, even at this state of the markets, even profitably!! Having mentioned newbuildings it is about time to vet the shipyards and close down many of them as they don’t conform with safety and more importantly they don’t built proper ships; end of the story!

Watch out for some shipping scandals and don’t be surprised with those involved… Indeed we expect a lot to surface… There are is at least US$ 1 (0ne) trillion in scandalous dealings involving basically ship finance.

The WTI just managed to end up the day above the US$ 46 mark – at US$46,02!¬

The Geopolitical front still remains a very dangerous aspect affecting all fronts and conspicuous meetings took place on and off the G20 annual gathering between certain world leaders,  raising eyebrows…

MIGRANTs, The Wars in Syria and Iraq against ISIS and everybody from those trying to make a peace deal fighting each other continues; Turkey, Cyprus and Greece: countries on alert for various similar and different reasons; the BREXIT enfolding still in uncharted waters; the USA – Russian saga on last year’s presidential elections; the Far East issues with China expansionism and North Korea’s provocative and well backed behaviour from countries pretending wanting Peace in the region but attacking the USA and its allies in the Korean Peninsula and beyond; Africa’s troubles and South America’s turbulent and corruptive issues… Too many issues can explode and they can explode simultaneously!!! These “explosions” will one hundred centum affect shipping given the issue of disruption in the World’s dire straits – Suez, Aden, Malacca, Bosphorus, to name but a few…

We are sending a warning as, from what we expedite from meeting hundreds of people in the industry and beyond as well as having our teams visiting all five continents, we can assure you that there isn’t any risk assessment provision and proviso to avoid the forthcoming Armageddon…

Have a nice evening and be on guard from any eventuality emanating from Pirates and Terrorists wherever you are on Planet Ocean!!!

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