The Pros and Cons of the BDI@1,092 amid Geopolitical uncertainty

Bribery and Corruption, Chartering, Containers, Dry Bulkcarriers, Liner Shipping and Trade, Markets, Military, News, Piracy and Terrorism, Reports, Shipping Indices, Statistics, Stock Markets, Tankers — By on August 10, 2017 at 10:55 PM

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) – thanks to the Capers and partly to the Panamaxes, managed to gain 42 points and now reads 1,092… The Geopolitical uncertainty which seems a bit extended, as well as alarming, due to the North Korean palaver, might produce a bit of everything…and affect the shipping markets… John Faraclas’ daily recap:

Back to the triple digit upward mode which saw the Capers’ BCI at 1,837 – plus 135… Low level spikes in an overall low market doesn’t mean though anything whatsoever…

The Panamaxes gained a “reputable” 36 points and now the BPI stands at 1,228…

The Supras stagnant and the Handies “still” falling; the BSI remained unchanged at 756 points whilst the BHSI lost one – now at 466 points…

Given the above following the market  reports so far and the existing figures, daily and historic ones,  three things you have to bear in mind:

One or even two indices with respective types – here the Capers and Panamaxes, cannot dictate the market nor it means anything more or less to feel content even for the short term, given that the other two sizes/types – the Supras and Handies remained more or less the same with a downward direction…

Minimum spikes whether upwards or downwards are to be ignored vis-à-vis the medium to long term market prospects, and thirdly,

We talk merely of bulk commodities which are not fully representing the real commercial and consuming ideal of goods to lift not just the indices but the World Economy. This can only be realised when the Box trade picks up! Until we see the containerships having two to three times better t/c period rates, expect misery worldwide – you can add the comparative figures during the last ten years and you can see that there isn’t any correlation whatsoever with the reality we wished to have… Until the Global Economy reduces the trillions of dollars  debts to just a couple only, particularly in plastic money and all that credit-card-jazz, don’t expect anything to happen. The most likely thing to happen are Public Fleets leading to State Owned shipping companies and even what we say: “shipping for the very very very few” won’t even last even a five to ten year “cycle”. This is the harsh reality. To upturn same we need Regulation and Ethics to rule the day; end of the story. The business hooligans have entered also the shipping industry distorting its very nature and values.

Another picture for the Wets; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 618 – up one, and 555 – minus one respectively… Not a good picture no matter if we are in the last summer month for both north and south hemispheres…

Big question: whatever happened to the Liner trade… Tough times ahead… despite mergers and acquisitions and all that rush for consolidation…

Good news for short sea-shipping subject appropriate arrangements… and peaceful environment…

Hard luck for the shipfinance front; No money… err very limited money available… from the traditional money-pots… The Funds need to be educated… they also have the wrong people…

The WTI as these lines are written stands at US$ 49.19 – it went for a little while above the US$ 50 mark…. CAUTION for the obvious reasons.

The results of 99.99 centum of listed  – and non listed shipping companies as we see,  are not at all encouraging. Mind me, the hope is for more consolidation and only the most capable – not rich shipping entities will survive. We are not just living in interesting times, we live in transitional times – certainly ultra-uncertain…given also the Geopolitical Chaos with Law and Order completely dismissed by the business hooligans and their cronies…. Politicians, Diplomats et al…

Despite having over ten billions tons of cargoes to carry, the distortion of the trade, the bribery and corruption spoil the broth…

There is plentiful on the Geopolitical Chaos Front and will revert tomorrow in Friday’s full recap; herewith are the most important news headlines:

Migrants – relentlessly continue as per our previous reporting with more and more reaching the Aegean Greek islands and they have also tripled in Spain… It is a big mess there to see MIGRANTS landing on a tourist beach… The influx is such that observers say it might overtake those landing in Greece. The good weather is a plus factor for MIGRANTS crossing over there… and elsewhere…

The Wars in the Middle East with the Syrian and Iraqi ISIS saga and over two dozens of different combatants… still in despicable progress – is there light at the end of the tunnel??

Turkey continued to violate Greece’s airspace and pester all in the region; in its internal affairs, things as per our last… More and more arrests by the Erdogan regime to eliminate all of his enemies… CAUTION..

Greece on holidays but wait to see how local holidaymakers face the September tax anathema issue and many more issues. CAUTION, as the encouraging words of many European leaders in the EU is a bluff… The current coalition is shaking; but wait until the elections – hopefully by 2019, exceptionally any time now…  We shall see…

BREXIT …gets bigger and bigger! BREXIT is the number one issue on Planet Ocean until now in this Millennium; just wait and see the development enfolding!

Terrorism still disturbing as, with the latest  incident in France, sends the signal for more thorough security measures EVERYWHERE!!!

The North Korea stand-off against the USA – and others in the Pacific basin with Guam being in the  epicentre,  steals the show of news… It is very disturbing to read at least the news around, as situation in reality is more than serious…  Can it happen? Can Kim Jong-un sacrifice his subjects? Donald Trump and his team of the American Might can smash North Koreans and the consequences for all will be lethal…

In South America, Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro wants to meet with President Trump… What’s on offer there…? Caution with Maduroists…

We eagerly await the LISW 2017 – 11 to 15 September-  in the British capital to contemplate with all market’s and geopolitical issues! Be there for the challenging event

Have a nice evening and be on guard for any eventuality deriving from Pirates and Terrorists.

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Updated: 22:55 BST

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