Falling Dry Market; Wet “re-surfacing”… and Geopolitical Blues…

Dry Bulkcarriers, Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Cyclones and Typhoons, Insight, Markets, News, Reports, Shipping Indices, Short-sea shipping, Statistics, Stock Markets, Tankers, Trade and Commerce — By on August 29, 2017 at 11:55 PM

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) despite a short lived “rebound” fell six points since last Friday and now reads 1,203. The Wets due to the Geopolitical and Natural disaster events are on the rise. Geopolitics might take a sour turn… John Faraclas daily recap:

After a long weekend coupled with the August Bank holiday in the United Kingdom with an excellent Notting Hill Carnival – with the Baltic conversely closed , back to the harsh reality and an early alarm due to the new North Korean missile test(?) or “warning” as this time it flew over the Japanese island of Hokaido and Abe’s patience was tested once again… We have warned you that things, not just in the Korean peninsular but more widely will produce unprecedented mess and spill-overs…

The Capers’ BCI was down 25 point to 2,381 and the Panamaxes BPI was also down 20 now reading 1,215… CAUTION is the least we can say…

On the antipode of the falling big sizes the Supras and the Handies both gained three points now reading 848(BSI) and 477 (BHSI) respectively.

So three issues will bother us here:

  • the Capers or the Panamaxes cannot constitute a market or the market and when these two generally fall, the other two – Supras and Handies rise but not significantly to affect the overall picture.
  • Add the third one being the upcoming newbulding spree – there are some hidden deals which do not come as a surprise here in the team. There have been hundreds of inactive shipyards and if the remaining good ones stop it will trigger a monumental social labour uprising; you bet? Obviously the consequences for the Dry market are grave…
  • Add the Environmental issues and see what you get!

There is a lot at stake and given the continues credit crunch and lack of money to spend – plastic cards had their day, you can imagine what’s next… shall we go a bit further: the geopolitical mess, not just with North Korea fighting another proxy war against the US and its allies, add Afghanistan where the proxy war there intensifies and see what you get… Eastern Ukraine? The Baltic States? The Syrian and Iraqi saga… All this above are greatly influencing the Container trade, liner or tramp…

The Wets on the rise! The last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 643 – that’s 16 points plus and 521 – that’s 13 points plus respectively! Shall we say that Storm Harvey, the 50 plus years most powerful storm of its kind to hit the region “worked” as a catalyst with spot rates rising particularly for the clean cargoes… Climate change and its effects…

The WTI at US$ 46.49 – dropped a bit amid the North Korean missile passing above Japan’s Hokaido… CAUTION!!

The Box trade, as said above, remains in our view, despite some improved rates, in limbo.-

The Geopolitical situation following the early morning / overnight news on North Korea’s and its backers’ despicable action, in total mess. Options are option, results will always count – particularly end results and consequences will be grave in any event. So, where are the diplomats to take “over”?

The MIGRANTS still there getting worse! Wonder if we are going to see a coherent policy and action in the EU, but I guess is a matter of the UN to tackle this issue, a pandemic now…

The Wars in Syria and Iraq against ISIS and all these dozens of groups remain “intact”… Be alerted of any actions that Turkey might opt to… In the meantime President Macron of France top foreign policy is fighting Islamist Terrorism and defeating ISIS which must go hand-in-hand with anti-terrorist measures in Africa. He was talking to 200 French Ambassadors on this issue, as France since 2015 has seen in its own land 230 people being killed by the despicable actions of these culprits! The inclusive transition period he requests for Syria and that France and its partners have to invest in the reconstruction of Syria and Iraq in winning Peace in both countries I am sure it echoes what we have numerous times said: “War father of all, if you don’t destroy, you cannot rebuilt; this is the pitiful message in history”. So an “oxymoron” looming all this time? We politely challenge Mr. Macron, who has very controversial ideas, with respect his speech to his 200 diplomats – same applies for all world major leaders who also are trying to “create” Peace through diplomacy, as why not they haven’t done this successfully before!!!! And what about himself and other world leaders creating the environment so as Africans don’t move north to cross over to Europe – and elsewhere,  given the despicable circumstances/ conditions prevailing there – Chad, Eritrea, Libya, Niger, Mali, to name a few…

Watch out Turkey’s intentions… The Turks are capable when the world events are attracting our attention, particularly the USA’s, to act… Turkish actions always loom in the background and can bring the world at a standstill…

Greece next door is in another state of limbo and expect surprises…

BREXIT discussions continued despite the Bank Holiday yesterday and the pound falls… A brave decision to leave the EU and equally a brave approach to new pastures for the United Kingdom… Many wonder what if the talks come to a standstill and a hard BREXIT takes place; who’s going to pay the damage – this applies for both sides…

The 51st Notting Hill Carnival was more than a success and with less trouble thanks to the exceptional large number of Police officers deployed and the means and measures taken ensuring all is fine! A boost also to the moral of those suffering in the human losses at Grenfell Tower nearby and those still suffering and grieving… United people with true motives always win!

Can we expect an upset in the forthcoming German election? If Mrs. Merkel and her coalition parties so sure they will form a viable government, if they don’t short out the MIGRANTS issue and the financial and economic mess in the Mighty Continent… What’s up with France’s president Macron on these issues?

At the other side of the Atlantic the Houston situation is beyond imagination and not over yet… Rain is causing more issues. President Trump and his wife Melania are there on the spot to see how best to alleviate the people there. The damage so far is incalculable. Many accidents also add to  catastrophe… Paragon Offshore Rig runs aground causing the closure of the Port of Corpus Cristi… Messy mess of an unstoppable natural disaster…

Meantime in Mumbai the Monsoon Rains have caused another major Flooding catastrophe… The transport system there is in total chaos…

Floods in Nigeria with thousand homeless…

Drought in Rome brings in water pressure cuts – 70 centum is the percentage of rainfall …missing… Two months are causing troubles in Italy and its capital… Nature cannot be tackled as we think…

What a situ that was in Japan when the sirens sounded when North Korea’s missile was tracked down… but not shot down – Abe’s Japanese until now are acting wisely, but… it is early days to see what next in this very perplexed situation… Will president Trump use and how, his options…

Finally, what do you make the Euro’s rebound against the USDollar?

More news before midnight; until then be on guard from any eventuality emanating from Pirates and Terrorists wherever you are on Planet Ocean!…

Uploaded 20:26 BST

Updated 23:55 BST

 

 

 

 

 

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