The BDI@1,328: learning to operate in turbulent waters

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John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) lost another 28 points since last Friday and now stands at 1,328 points; Geopolitics continue to get sour on all fronts everywhere on Planet Ocean. John Faraclas’ daily recap:

The Capers lost 67 points with the BCI now reading 2,671 points…

The Panamaxes’ BPI was down to 1,268 – minus 40 points…

The Supras, about to go under the 1,000 point threshold, lost 15 with the BSI now at 1,006 points, and

The Handies losing two points brings the BHSI at 614.

So, all Dry Indices are high and dry… sending alarming messages even with the Moon Festival on in the Far East. Wonder how many excuses we can count for to entertain not just the uncertainty but excuse ourselves for the reality; shame, as we can’t face the truth.

The Wets too on a falling mode; the last published BDTI (Dirties)  and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 776 – minus six and 667 – minus four respectively… see these figures digit-wise and get the message of …reflections…

The Box trade hasn’t yet picked up despite all the alchemy around… The Reefer trade though had its best during the last two years; something positive to talk for… It  seems to me that very soon the Box-Reefer trade will bring handsome capital gains!

The Cruise industry expects in five years – 2022, to see the fourth vessel in Cunard’s fleet; an addition to Queen Mary 2, Queen Victoria and Queen Elizabeth this fourth vessel to be built in Italy will complement all future cruise vessels and maritime holiday adventures!

The LNG market had a slightly positive development and let’s hope same continues…

The LPG still in dire straits…

The WTI more or less close to last week’s closing – slightly down at US$ 50.54… Need to see the WTI below the US$50 mark!

All in all a market for the very very very few, hence some mergers, acquisitions and consolidations. I guess that nothing will stop the new era in shipping, not because of lack of funds as banks still cannot understand were the shipping market’s model is heading, but because it is too late for reversals as the hoi polloi proved greedy. Expect collapses and scandals… Never underestimate the new types of ships to come; and they will come sooner than you think/expect. Did I hear you say unmanned ships? Did I hear you say new methods of propulsion with alternative sources of energy on the go…? Just wait and see! Change is inevitable and this will be shipping’s fourth innovative revolution of the same magnitude with the change from sail to steam and the elimination of the radio officers…

The BDI needs nearly one thousand points to reach the levels of December 2013 – never forget this!

The Shipping industry needs bankers with knowledge to lend; 99 centum of all bankers lack maritime education and training… The Funds are speculators and 99 centum are totally out of the context what shipping lending is all about…

Wonder when will Risk Assessment be taught in the Universities – wonder though how many tutors know about it!

The Geopolitical front produced synchronised earthquakes and tsunamis – save the issues which we constantly refer to: MIGRANTS, the wars in Syria and Iraq against the Islamist terrorists ISIS et al, the Turkish and Greek sagas, The BREXIT adventure creating a mega market and geopolitical mayhem, Europe after the German elections with no appropriate government/administration yet… and all that we have referred so far, we now have an increase in Piracy and Terrorism, Terrorism of any kind you can imagine. Now you can see why in every daily report we end with an alarming note, a caution for what the Pirates and Terrorists can do in our society: The French president Emmanuel Macron is furious and very much sceptical as well as ultra-concerned with the latest attack yesterday in a Marseilles train station; a macabre case with two young ladies, cousins too, being stabbed by an assailant who was shot dead! We advise president Macron that his forces must make pre-emptive so to speak arrests, as things are dangerously escalating in France…

A carnage in the USA following a lone wolf’s despicable action killing 59 and injuring 527 in Las Vegas attending a concert, the worst ever event in the recent history of the USA; terrible! What about gun law there – in the USA I mean…

893 people have been found injured in a messy referendum in Catalonia, Spain. Defying all possible criticism, the Spanish authorities in Madrid decided to intervene. Time will tell how difficult tomorrow will be for Spain and beyond. Violence will bring violence and things can get sour and completely out of control not just in Spain, but elsewhere with similar Referendums – see the way the Kurds in Northern Iraq, actually Kurdistan, are being treated by all – UN, European Union, the Americans and obviously Erdogan’s regime and his internal and external cronies…

Still a major danger for humanity is the position of North Korea; it is not just the animosity with the USA, it is far beyond that, mainly targeting the periphery there with Japan being the epicentre of North Korean’s animosity leading to aggression.

Have a nice evening and be on guard for every eventuality deriving from Pirates and Terrorists wherever you are in Planet Ocean! Meantime remember that the creator gave us a neck to stick it out… Go for your own encounter*…

*Remember “The Encounter” by Kevin Costner ??

P.S. Get geared for the 2017 Marine Money Greek conference on 17th October at the Athens Hilton.

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    1 Comment

  • Great news once more John. This time the indices indeed have been affected by the Bational and Mid Autumn Moon Festival in the no 1 trading country in the world. Unfortunately the index goes up or down dependent on the activity of fixtures. So that is a valid “excuse”.
    In the Geopolitical front the one that for now got out of hand, intentionally for the conspiracy theories advocates- or out of ignorance is the Spanish disintegration. Possibly to be followed by the creation of “fiefdoms” under the EU umbrella. It could be a new “New Europe”

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