The BDI@1,405: a controlled correction…?

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John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) and in general the markets do not surprise us at all with their performance and behaviour so far needless to say their volatility; the Geopolitics are so perplexed and enigmatic that either you consult …the oracle or use your own shipping business intuition to go ahead. John Faraclas’ daily and weekly recap:

The BDI closed earlier on today at 1,405 points, up 23 since yesterday and 49 since last week’s 1,356 points… It went on even up to 1,503 points on Monday the 25th of September but since then, volatility turned everything upside down; all these happenings are “thanks” mainly to the as ever volatile Capers!

The Capers’ BCI gained 41 points since yesterday and now reads 2,929 which is 196 points higher from last week’s 2,733 points… Caution to volatility!

The Panamaxes were on an upwards trend too; the BPI ended the day 61 points plus and now reads  1,406 points which is 98 point plus sine last Friday’s the 29th of September closing at 1,308 points. Caution here too as our favourable size gets the pressure from all ends…

The Supras’ BSI was up six points since yesterday at 971 – still below though the 1,000 point threshold; on a weekly basis the BSI was down 50 points – from 1,021.

The Handies’ BHSI was also losing the market’s momentum as despite gaining three points since yesterday and now standing at 610, it lost six from last week’s 616 points…

So the “recipe’s” resume remains the same; when the two major sizes are on an upwards trend the smaller ones are losing…

Uncertainty plays the most crucial role here and same will continue for the foreseeable future coupled with the turbulent multi-Geopolitical factors and the existence of credit crunch; still nobody really talks about it!!!! We reiterate the view that whatever happens right now same can only has substance when the BDI reaches the 31st of December 2013 level when it stood at 2,247 points – a difference of 842 points with today’s level of 1,406 points.

The Wets on a perplexed situation; on a daily basis the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) produced mixed feelings on daily basis. The Dirties were up six points to 766, down though on a weekly basis from 782 – minus 16; the Cleans were down five points on the day trading to 617 and minus 54 from last week’s 671 points (same digits, different numbers).

On both instances, the Dry and Wet markets stand were they stand because of the China factor and we are waiting to see what next. Given that consumers’ power has completely evaporated be wise in your moves… This is also one of the Container trade’s main issues… The Box trade, as it is also called, is in changing mode so to speak,  environment/modus and thanks to the reefer boxes, there is some light in the end of the tunnel… Go for newbuildings with 14-20,000 TEU’s capa and fully equipped with at least 80 centum reefer plugs. Go for simple megaships, easy to navigate and maintain as well as easy to berth… It goes without saying that there is a need of Ports and Terminals to fully support Intermodalism!

Indeed we are supporting newbuildings, not just to keep away from a social upturn in case the 75 centum of the yards are idle with no orders and conversely all equipment makers which will shake the world and turn things upside down, but because newbuildings are very much needed for an eco sustainable shipping environment supported with many improvements design-wise as well as perfprmance. Add the mega bunkering change and see where we are heading. Remember that revolution of change going from the sails to steam what had created and how many went under… eh??  Keep up with the imminent changes… You can also learn from the airline industry; see what the national airlines suffered from the low budget majors, repeat majors…

Funding shipping is the biggest issue and wonder how many understand “Ship Finance in Turbulent and Transitional Times” an issue which will bother us for quite some time…

The WTI as these lines are written stands at US$49.25 ! Excellent news so long it remains below the US$50 mark…

The Geopolitics still causing a chaotic situation all over with the MIGRANTS maintaining the top position. Some advances against the ISIS Islamist Terrorists from all sides, but haven’t heard or read anything from the specialists why it takes so long to eliminate these culprits! We have said and written same on canvas: we need to name and shame them all, particularly their backers and suppliers of equipment… or else … It goes without saying that this prolonged wars has also upset all warring functions / enemies of the ISIS lot. The super powers do know who the suppliers are but until now no one dares to nominate them…Pity and Shame…

The Kurdish issue for the creation of a Kurdish state must be honoured or expect worse situations. Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria must learn to live with reality; end of the story!

The Turkish aggression all over Turkey’s frontiers gets worse and Greece’s patience approaches dignity’s limits.  More intrusions today by the Turkish Airforce and I am telling you it is going be a 9 Richer explosion in the region if Turkey continues to violate Greece’s and Europe’s airspace. How long the World can stand the modern Turkish blackmail?  Turkey will drag us all in a major disaster; one must also tell Turkey’s backers that they will also be full accountable / responsible if things go beyond control…

Greece next door faces more problems being the result of 43 years of “Democratic” ruling. Any objection?? Enough! Expect a mess soon if these 300MPs remain in Greece’s parliament. We repeat: Greece needs an Aristos’ team for ten years; read relevant reporting and get the message. Brussels too headed by Germany must stop pestering the Greek people. You need two in a tango!

Politics in the United Kingdom are on the edge; BREXIT and who leads the Conservative Government become crucial. Our view: Let Mrs. May finish the job with BREXIT, and then let her streamline British Politics; one thing at a time! We reiterate the view that BREXIT is the best thing that ever surfaced over here in the United Kingdom and conversely in Europe challenging Brussels rotten policies headed by Germany; enough! The United Kingdom and its Commonwealth of 1.9 billion people are going to be Planet Ocean’s super trading power! No other political, religious block has this figures greatly supporting consumerism! Consumerism is all about business and a nation’s well being! Try to think outside the box… AND: London was, is and will continue to be the Administrative capital of World Shipping!

Everybody awaits the new German administration following respective elections… What will this new Mrs. Merkel term bring? The dissolution of the European Union? Quite possible! when there isn’t a coherent policy for the MIGRANTS, then everything is possible; shame! Add the Russian factor and see that we are going back to square one…

Things might get worse in Spain with Catalonia in limbo… or it is Spain in limbo…

In the USA the Las Vegas aftershock and all the Hurricanes there are still causing major concerns among the population. Add the North Korean and Iran sagas and see what the American people are going through… needless to say the world at large… Did I hear you say Sanctions? Will president Trump bring Iran down again with sanctions and upset many tanker owners as an end result? Obviously nukes for Iran and North Korea have and must have a response. Same applies for other reason say for Venezuela and some nearby regimes which continue to live, still, in another world… That sounds not music to your ears, but something else, given the latest event in Cuba with the USA’s diplomatic personnel complaining on the sound effects…

In Central America Storm Nate kills 22 in Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras…  The eye of the storm has moved over the sea, heading towards the USGulf  – Mexico and the United States, where it could become a hurricane; expect another possible catastrophe… Pity… This is the “wrath” of nature, unstoppable…

A great event, a great union with successful results

On another tone the end of the WISTA-International AGM and Conference , the 37th such event which took place in Rotterdam was more than a success for a multitude of reasons. Many Congratulations to the organisers, WISTA-The Netherlands and all WISTAs for more than an interwoven approach of the Shipping Industry’s challenges and we expect a great presidency with Despina Panayiotou-Theodosiou and her team. I hear the Gala was lively and our shipping maidens had the fun they deserve for the hard work and devotion they put in participating in the Intermodalism’s chain on par with men in keeping Planet Ocean alive! Congrats to all! For sure, all going well,  will see you in Norway next year!

Coming up in Athens’ Divani Caravel Hotel , Capital Link’s event: “Operating Excellence in Shipping – Best Industry Practices” Forum. Log on in the respective banner in the site and book your presence and be there on the first of November!.

Have a nice evening, back on Monday;  until then be on guard for any eventuality involving Pirates and Terrorists wherever you are on Planet Ocean… Have a nice weekend!

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