Caution with the BDI and Geopolitics…

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John Faraclas

Caution with the BDI@1,523… and geopolitics

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) closed earlier on today 38 points higher since last Friday and  now reads 1,523 points – one of the best ever for many months now… Geopolitics as per our feelings – in writing as you can read all our previous reports, got really more than messy… Expect unprecedented developments. John Faraclas’ daily brief recap:

The volatile Capers gained 109 points and the BCI now stands at 2,980 points – ready to go over and above the 3,000 point threshold…

The Panamaxes gained only 31 points with the BPI now at 1,637 points…

In contrast/reflection… so to speak the Supras gained 31 points with the BSI now at 1,082…

Just seven points was enough for the Handies’ BHSI to maintain the 600 plus level – a barrier of paramount importance – at 656 looks safe…

Now, don’t jump to conclusions as we are still 724 points below the 31st of December 2013 closing (2,247 points)…

Mixed feelings still with the Wets; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 903 – plus 33 and 563 – minus ten points respectively… Another caution here…

The WTI was more or less the same at US$ 51.77 – dropped slightly, but in our view must be always below the US$ 50 marks, as the poo might not have the patience…

Due to the very bad world economy and the inability of the consumers to purchase goods as in the past, don’t be surprised to see a total collapse of the world economy as the bubble might burst… with incalculable repercussions… Add the worse ever Geopolitical situation and see how difficult the situ is…

Whatever we have advised and warned you is happening:

The Migrants got even worse with dozens being drowned in the Med and the Turkish blackmail and threats continuing as president Erdogan might send over three million to Europe… Turkey’s intrusion in Syria and eyeing Kirkuk and Mosul might spill over the hostilities to many countries in the region and beyond… The Kurdish saga might become a major liability as Kurds might opt  for unorthodox warfare in all four countries, and then the shit will hit the fan… As we have numerous times explained, this is a very perplexed situation coupled with religious fanatism…  and same can produce both earthquakes and tsunamis… Any Peacemakers around? Any diplomats?

The Wars in Syria and Iraq against the ISIS Islamist Terrorists continues and we have to call it a day as the more “we prolong” same it will be too late… let us hope Raqqa falls within the next 48 hours!

Turkey must learn that its attitude to upset all in the region will backfire… Its main objective is to destabilise the entire region and beyond into Europe – the Balkans in particular AND beyond!  Very soon any Russian – Turkish agreement will be null and void…

Israel has slowly but steadily got involved in the Middle East conflict – the latest attack on a Syrian anti-aircraft battery near Damascus, after missiles were fired against an Israeli jet… might cause problems… CAUTION! In a nutshell be ready for the worse in the region…

Greece goes through its worse part of its modern history. The Greek people had enough from all parties and their promises. The harsh reality is that the state of the economy is far worse and the crisis  far from over. All issues come simultaneously… Did I hear you say Shipyards? Skaramanga, Elefsis, Neorion are all in a mess!!! We have longed warned you on what was coming and we are more than indebted to all our friends in the media and in particular Lloyd’s List for airing our views!!! Thank you Lloyd’s List, thank you Nigel Lowry and Chris Meyer!  I am also indebted to my late professor James McConvile and IAME for inviting to speak in 1996   at the Metropolitan University’s auditorium  – then London Guildhall University , on the world’s shipyards issue! The biggest scandal that it will soon engulf Greece and Europe will be that of Greece’s Shipyards. Shame!!!  The politicians are to blame and also the union, yes just one Union, that of Triaina in Skaramanga! We provoke all parties to a live televised debate AND the Unions ! Expect a very messy situation in Greece and let’s see who will pay the damage of the non-performing loans… All political parties in power post 1974 are fully responsible for the mess in the shipyards sector and beyond! Finally, we eagerly await the actual results from Greece’s prime minister’s visit in the White House; will president Trump understand how grave the situation is…

The Balkans are getting day by day far worse than ever before; Albanians, Kosovars, people and politicians in FYROM too might cause more trouble…

Germany still without a government… some election hiccups for Mrs. Merkel…

Next door, the Austrian conservative Sebastian Kurz is poised to become not just Europe’s youngest leader, but something beyond that. Charisma – the powerful greek word coupled with youth do the trick. Remember William Pitt the younger?

BREXIT has begun to bite for all involved. Our personal assessment is that at the end of the day same will be for the benefit of the people of the United Kingdom, provided they stay united…

In the British Isles the passing of Hurricane Ophelia was and still is a bit messy… Too many issues in Ireland.. Extraordinary phenomena with the sun too!

In Catalonia things are getting sour with Spain… add the wild fires in both Spain and Portugal and see what’s up there…

In Somalia after the weekend mess with nearly 280 dead, following the massive truck bomb explosion in Mogadishu,  things might turn sour again… That was more than a devastating and despicable action that ever happened  thee before…

In South Africa the big question is who will become the county’s next president… A woman? Most likely… Let’s see if this woman is Mrs Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma!

The panel; Christos Gotsos, Nikolas Karamouzis and Dimitri Vayanos with Dr. Platon Monokroussos (third from the left) replying to a question

On another tone, another excellent book launch at the Wolfson Theatre in London School of Economics earlier on tonight: “Non-performing Loans and Resolving Private Sector Insolvency”. Once again Congratulations to Dr.Platon Monokroussos and his team in producing another challenging book!  The event was chaired by Dimitri Vayanos, professor of Finance at the LSE. Speakers included Nikolas Karamouzis, chairman of the BoD of the Hellenic Bank Association (HBA) / chairman of the BoD of Eurobank Ergasias and Christos Gotsos, professor of Public Economic Law at the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens.

The book cover

Interesting points by the main speaker Dr Monokroussos and an interesting debate with quite a number of powerful questions which continued at the drinks and dips reception. Let’s see what next on this issue… We will revert with a full report soon. Excellent organisational skills by Poly Liouta from the Hellenic Observatory at the LSE…

Tomorrow in Athens Hilton, the 19th Marine Money Greek Ship Finance Forum takes place at the right time given the dire straits the shipping industry is going through! Money…? And what about new orders given the regulatory and environmental issues…

At the other side of the Atlantic now, in the USA’s New York, Ahmad Rahimi, an Afghan-born US citizen, who left two devices in Manhattan nearly a year ago has been convicted on all charges for two bombs in New York which injured dozens of people… President Trump has a lot of issues to solve – internal and external… North Korea and Iran are among his priorities… The elections for governors in Venezuela have been also condemned as neither “free not fair”

Have a nice evening and be on guard for any eventuality emanating from Pirates and Terrorists wherever you are on Planet Ocean; things getting worse…

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Updated 23:57 BST

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