Daily Overview of Global Markets & the SEE Region (Friday, October 20, 2017)

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Dr. Platon , Monokroussos, Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager, Eurobank Ergasias S.A.,

HIGHLIGHTS

WORLD ECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

GLOBAL MARKETS: The USD was firmer in European trade on Friday and UST yields moved higher on the back of increased US tax reform optimism. With a 51-49 majority, the Senate approved late on Thursday a budget blueprint for the 2018 fiscal year envisioning a $1.5trn in additional federal deficit over the next decade to accommodate proposed US tax cuts. After gaining Senate approval, the House and Senate should reach a consensus on a common version of the budget resolution before it can be sent to the US President for signing. Once a common resolution has been agreed, discussions on a detailed legislation for the reform of the tax code will follow expecting an agreement between the Senate and the House on tax reform legislation by late 2007/early 2018. Moody’s will review its rating on Spain’s and Italy’s sovereign debt later today. In the US, focus will be on a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on “Monetary Policy since the Financial Crisis” while on the data front, US existing home sales for September lure market attention.

GREECE: The 3rd programme review commenced yesterday on a technical level. The central themes of the review are apparently four: 1) fiscal revenue and primary surpluses in 2017 and 2018, 2) banks and NPLs, 3) energy, labour and public sector reforms, and 4) privatisations. The 3rd review informal timetable foresees that the institutions’ heads will arrive in Athens next week and then again towards the end of November with a view to having the review closed by end-January 2018.

SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE

CYPRUS: The construction industry rebound continued in Q2-2017. Fitch sovereign rating review is scheduled later today.

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