The BDI@1,476: when the balloon goes up…

Chartering, Containers, Dry Bulkcarriers, Insight, Markets, Reports, Shipping Indices, Statistics, Stock Markets, Tankers, Trade and Commerce — By on November 3, 2017 at 11:55 PM

John Faraclas

The Markets lacks sustainability and hope the winter climate reverses the current downfall although the fall doesn’t correlates with the freight earnings for both  Dries and Wets. Geopolitics as you possible notice become day by day more than crucial and all governments must put their house in order. John Faraclas’ daily and weekly recap:

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) lost six points earlier today and now reads 1,476; that’s minus 70 points from last week’s 1,546 points braking downwards the 1,500 point-threshold / safety barrier, when most believed that the 1,600 points was achievable before Chistmas…

The Capers lost 23 points and the BCI now reads 3,036 points, very close in going below the 3,000 base mark which secures a good break even – including C+I repayments; on a weekly basis the fall a triple-digit… 184 points – from 3,220… Caution…

On the antipode the Panamaxes, our most favourite size which, in contrast with the Capers, gained 23 points standing now at 1,562… On a weekly basis the plus points were good enough to make you feel safe; 45 plus points from last Friday’s 1,517 points!

The Supras were down 13 points with the BSI reading 1,014 points; the weekly fall was substantial, 86 points off the board – from 1,100. Another caution!

The Handies fell four points and now the BHSI reads 664 points; on a weekly basis the loss was 23 points – from 687 points…

So a falling Dry market; add that one upwards heading size doesn’t constitute a market, nor dictates same even if the BDI is on a plus mode! The gap has been widened a bit, we now stand 771 points down from the 31st of Dec 2013 closing (2,247 – 1,476)

The Wets with mixed feelings; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans). The Dirties at 855- down 12 points and on a weekly basis down 65 points – from 920!!! The Cleans at 539 – plus five, but on a weekly basis down 29 – from 510 points.

As these lines are being written, the WTI stands at US$ 54.00, more or less the same levels as of yesterday. On a weekly basis the WTI lost a whisker as it stood at US$ 54.19!

The Box trade still stuck and it is about to see how shipping’s chain and intermodalism most commonly use tool improve its earnings… The real issue is the credit crunch and warring environment amongst the mega liner or semi liner companies and the dozens of individuals… Expect a messy outcome, given the fact that many will proceed for gigantic newbuilds…

We learn that a few companies are about to merge and others to begin a closer cooperation; we also hear and read of shipping scandals and we eagerly await to see if the accusations for at least a dozen or so companies are tangible…

The Geopolitical front is worse since yesterday and far worse since last year  and we advise all to be on guard as the coming develorpments in all fronts will not surprise us, but you, most of you might have difficult issues to tackle… Remember Heraclitus’: “everything changes and nothing remains still … and … you cannot step twice into the same stream”.

MIGRANTS continue to be the number one issue all over Planet Ocean and unfortunately there isn’t a solution yet in sight, given not just the apathy of all governments, organisations and others involved, but their total ignorance how to tackle same. Expect more trouble. The sooner the MIGRANTS issue is being settled and Turkey stops sending them to Europe via the Greek Islands and Libya becomes also a state able to police its own coast lines, the sooner things will get better for all. Among MIGRANTS we are warning that there are Terrorists, so a thorough checking system must be implemented. It costs billions of dollars and under the circumstances all nations face humanitarian crisis with the social cohesion in many being broken… Imagine that thee ae thee millions in Turkey and another four million in Northern Africa, most of them in Libya… We reiterate our position for a Naval Blockade of the entire Anatolian Coast in Turkey with rules of engagement and with whatever this entails; same to apply all over Libya! We politely provoke a live debate on an A1 TV channel and we will entertain you accordingly; enough!

The Wars in Syria and Iraq against the remnants of ISIS continues, but also the wars for dominance there between the superpowers and their respective coalitions. The Kurdish issue might become a major disaster for all if not properly tackled. Turkey is the stumbling block and one way or another the superpowers must have a clear and justifiable policy before the region goes up in flames. Short-sighted politicians and strategists is what we don’t need… Add the fact that we need an increase of super / advanced intelligent officers to cater with the difficult task with the thousands of ISIS fighters returning in European Nations from the war zone. A difficult task, but an expected situation as these culprits, these islamist terrorists as losers they will try attack us here. The examples speak for themselves. Can we please have some serious political response…

Turkey: The internal situation becomes worse every single day; a divided nation after the Referendum and the failed Coup that president Erdogan orchestrated,  now lives in difficult times from its president’s pathos to remain one way or another into power at any cost… Trials and terror everywhere despite cover-ups with the media being fully controlled. All Turkey’s neighbours feel the pressure as president Erdogan wishes to become the region’s super power… implementing also a religious regime, a so called theocratic one… Violating Greece’s and Europe’s airspace is getting too much; today we had a helicopter twice flying 100 yards above the Imia islets and all over the Aegean we had 60 (sixty) violations from Turkish Airforce jets all of which have been peacefully intercepted by Greece’s Airforce… Turkey was upset of the joint military exercises that Greece contacted with neighbouring Egypt off the Dodecanese Islands… Turkey wishes to destabilising the entire Balkans for its own purpose and megalomania using religion as its major weapon and it is good to hear the Greek President Prokopis Pavlopoulos every time he visits or participates in any event to warn that the attitude of Turkey, Albania and FYROM might create a mess and Greece will not accept this situation from neighbouring counties with aspirations in joining the EU and NATO in disputing the status quo and in particular today’s frontiers. He is absolutely right as these nations want to enter the camp that Greece belongs, with the oxymoron being that challenge Greece’s frontiers. Wonder what’s Brussels position to all these violations based on pure Turkish Blackmail… The EU and NATO must intervene forthwith before it is too late and then no one can accept any excuse whatsoever… Watch this space!  Ah! Did I hear you say Turkish financial scandals involving many in president Erdogan’s party…

Next door Greece lives another historical tragedy of incalculable repercussions… Except its bullying from Turkey and Brussels (EU and NATO), Greece faces the pathos of its politicians to remain or regain power from the  parties who’s policies have criminally harmed the Greek people… Shameful on all counts! Again we reiterate the view that Greece needs an ARISTOS team to rule the country for ten years and then with a new electoral system – one candidate per party per constituency, to proceed for real democratic elections. The only proper taxation under the circumstances is alike in the United Kingdom a Council Tax which real serves its purpose. All other extras taxes that have been imposed, in the highest band should be abolished forthwith and only normal taxes to apply – business etc. If not, for another 100 years Greece will remain in this situation. Any objection? If yes, again we can entertain anybody live on an A1 TV station. We mean it! Wake up and oust these muppet puppet show of Brussels and their cronies in Athens’ Constitution Square! Expect the unexpected in case the current coalition falls, despite the support of Brussels… What a shameful and despicable situation…

The Balkans in general are in a foot of war so speak; Albania, Kosovo, Serbia, FYROM: check it! Turkey, as said above is the destabilising factor!

BREXIT, the Millennium’s biggest challenge for everybody all over Planet Ocean; PM Theresa May does her best amongst the beasts at home and in Europe. A very discipline person is the only one to ensure the most appropriate deal, but all in her party must come down to their senses before they come to their knees! It might be a difficult decision and the Referendum might not “suit” all, but here you go, as Brussels have been fail and untrusted bed fellows. She how they tackle the Greeks and you can understand. Never rule out a BREXIT, followed by a GREXIT and a possible DANEXIT – Denmark might feel the need to go too… The situation is very critical as the EU dominated by Germany and its cronies doesn’t perform.

There are hiccups of sex harassment and indecent behaviour with resignations and more to come, so what, let it be, let it happen; it will for the good of British people, as all parties have skeletons in their cupboards… Throw them out from the Parliament and any other political establishment! It is not just in the UK it is primarily in the USA with sex scandals rocking also the World of Arts and Entertainment, Media – a very sad story and shameful for all sides of the equation involved… Too much sex makes you short-sighted…

On the …“antipode” we love SHEX in Shipping …and FHEX too… Enough, we have more than serious issues and we must finish with all these beasts who harm and bully others to justify their means and anomaly ego…  Finish off also those accomplices covering up these sins! Throw all of them from the Keadas Canyon… The famous Keadas (or Kaiadas) cave was the place where the Spartans according to Pavsanias, Thucydides and Strabo were throwing their captured enemies and convicts, until 406BC.  Parade them everywhere and saw zero tolerance… never allow them ever to have any job whatsoever for the sins they have done. Confiscate their money, properties even the charities they have set up… You dead well know what I mean… They are many though but the Police and Intelligence  Services must cooperate and arrest them  here and now with the existing evidence all those all over Planet Ocean no matter who they are! Moe evidence will poor in…

Spain with the Catalonian issue, still a major issue dynamitising the rest of Europe and minorities… might see strange and unwanted events developing, as talking about arrest might worsen the situation. what is Democratic and Constitutional is indeed one thing, but same at least when coming from Brussels  it must come from elected people there. The EU is permanently manipulated by unelected representatives with no concern for its population…

Is China on a new course following the 19th Party Congress in Beijing? No one can ignore the strides taken these last four decades, but equally one has to see what China’s competitors are up with… Will Chinese growth remain steady? If yes, then obviously same will contribute to Planet Ocean’s prosperity and stability… One other issue might be that of the quality of growth; given the hiccups vis-a-vis the quality of its shipbuilding quality growth, we expect a colossal effort towards this goal! We are referring to issues herein which we know well and obviously we can control and defend if needed. The Chinese dream and rightly so is that of equal opportunities for the Chinese people and we fully support this, but to this effect more reforms and controls are needed. China and its population have to adopt more reforms to correlate with those prevailing in the EU and the USA… For us in the shipping industry we wonder how the Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road Routes will work amid a hostile environment given, the expected in our view, situation  in Central Asia  as well as – as we mentioned above, China’s competitors business / trade response… Let us see how Xi Jinping’s vision enfolds in practice.

As mentioned above in the Chinese para, indeed we hope that Chinese growth will contribute to Planet Ocean’s prosperity and stability as life today is very bad for teenagers; they are in the midst of a mental health crisis and the reality is far more complex. Uncertainty creates very bad feelings and the unemployment rates coupled with a very perplexed future makes youth of today suffering and the national health systems around the Western World in particular have a lot to spend to assist our teenagers…

Next door Japan expects president Trumps visit over the weekend – a major and important trip there given what takes place in the Far East. His daughter and adviser Ivanka is there already and she spoke out against sexual harassment in the workplace at the World Assembly for Women in Tokyo where she met Japanese PM Shinzo Abe. A marathon tour in Asia – he will visit South Korea, China, Vietnam, the Philippines. A very important trip and it seems definitely that he will also meet Russian president Vladimir Putin. On the North Korean front it has been said that only an invasion of North Korea can eliminate the dangers emanating by this pariah state… In the internal from the president and his presidency still have to tackle many domestic issues and above all all those connected with his pre-election campaign and members of his team;  tough time ahead.

In South America now…. Venezuela seems to be close in a state of bankruptcy; how long can Nicholas Maduro survive and for how long Venezuelans can suffer…

In Argentina Amado Boudou, former vice-president under president Cristina Fernandez, has been arrested on counts of corruption… At the same time Argentina mourns her five victims in the city of Rosario who were killed in New York following the truck there ;last Tuesday… In Colombia former FARC leader Rodrigo Londoño, known as Timochenko, announced that he will run for the presidential elections next year… In the meantime Colombia signed a deal worth US$ 300 mio with the UN to tackle cocaine production…

Finally in Africa... despicable news says that the Red Cross apologises for losing US$ 5 mio of aid money during the Ebola epidemic in West Africa. another fraud issue…  In Liberia the presidential election run-off due to be held on Tuesday will be delayed.

In less than two months we expect the New Year 2018, a very difficult yea ahead with the EU going through one crisis after another and the World in a total mess which might lead even to wider wars o at best instability. Be cautious! There are a lot of things happening soon and wonder how many in our industry have thee contingency plans ready… Mind me, as of the 16th of February we have The Year of the Dog…

One more reminder to curb Piracy and Terrorism and secure the navigation through the Worlds Straits; what many times we have called Planet Ocean’s Dire Straits…

All these geopolitical issues and events greatly affect shipping, our industry and its sustainability.

The Panamanian Ambassadress H.E. Cristina Liakopulos de Papadikis

On another tone and further to our brief note earlier on this morning on  NAVIGATOR’s 17th Shipping Decision Makerrs Forum, the rest of this successful event included the excellent presentation of MacGregor’s Athena Kanellatou – what an excellent video that was; the speech by Panama’s ambassadress H. E. Cristina Liakopulos de Papadikis on Panama! It was / is indeed Panama’s time – the National Day, the Panama Canal’s Centennial! Panama is by far Planet Ocean’s ship registry with just over 8,000 vessels flying the Panamanian Flag!

The Greek Shipping Minister Panagiotis Kouroumplis spoke too, as did the United States of America Ambassador in Greece H.E. Geoffrey Pyatt. Their speeches as well all the rest of this Forum’s presentations and deliberations can be found in Iris Liaskonis’ report.

Smiling faces: Navigator’s Danae D. Bezantakos, Iris Liaskonis and Antipollution’s Sofia Falida

As we have already advised you next week – 6th to 8th of November in London’s ExCel, the World Travel Market promises to be a great exhibition with a multiple of events and conferences taking place. Our team will be there in full force to cover Planet Ocean’s second largest industry after Shipping, that of Tourism which includes Maritime Tourism too  in its entirety!

Log on and see all the forthcoming events which lately exceed in numbers all previous years – a good sign for our industry.

A special one too:  The FREE University of Southampton course ‘Shipwrecks and Submerged Worlds.  Maritime Archaeology’ starts again on Monday 6th November. You can sign up here at: www.futurelearn.com . Learn how maritime archaeology investigates our changing relationship with the oceans and seas, from 2.5m years ago until today! As a site we fully support these courses and we expect to see them all over the world with counties full of maritime history!

The GIWA (Greek International Women Awards) next phase is coming up and with interest await to see those going through. For sure, as in all such beginners  issues, we  expect to see improvements next time round and we will contribute towards this goal avoiding any criticism whatsoever. In about a month’s time on the 9th of December 2017, the big date at the British Library – see relevant announcement. Book early to avoid any disappointment!

Have a nice weekend and  be on guard for any eventuality emanating from Pirates and Terrorists wherever you are on Planet Ocean…

Enjoy Guy Fawkes Night; have a nice Bonfire night this coming Sunday!

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_ Updated   23: 55 GMT

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