With the BDI@1,230 brace for the new era…

Energy, Markets, News, Reports, Sales and Purchases, Ship Demolitions, Shipping Indices, Statistics, Stock Markets — By on January 2, 2018 at 11:51 PM

John Faraclas

Despite the BDI’s (Baltic Dry Index) triple digit fall in an otherwise odd welcome for the New Year, the good news is that Shipping for the vey very very few begins to make waves; geopolitics getting worse and we can hear the barking dog coming… on the 16th of February… John Faraclas’ first brief market recap for 2018:

The BDI lost 136 points and now reads 1,230 points, a fact no one can dispute… Ending the year at 1,366 points was an expected fact, so brace for an adventoure…

The collapse of the Capers’ BCI was monumental; 549 points lost and now at 2,281 things are getting sour, but volatility is here to stay… tomorow is another day

The Panamaxes’ fall of 55 points brings the BPI at a dangerous zone; the 1,340 mark today marks another worry…

Both Supras and Handies lost 13 points; the BSI and BHSI now stand at 901 and 612 points respectively… Caution!

Let me remind you that we are 1,017 points below the end of December 2013 level – 2,247; make your assumptions, as we reached good levels  – 504 points* when the BDI stood at 1,743  points (12 Dec. 2017)  and then things got uncertain again, certainly!

Is there room to believe that this is just a bad dry market start or that the continuation of last years’ fall continues with a market tsunami ante portas; time will tell. As said in the preamble, we reiterate the view that those who can sustain these market levels are the very very very few and even consolidation cannot alter the course of things for the hoi polloi. Be prepared for a very strange market!

The Containerships and trade seems a bit better overall, but still as they say, it is early days… Economic AND credit Crunch  are still here and the plastic money syndrome now begins to bite…

The Wets remained down and low… The last published  BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 827  and 720 remained the same … CAUTION though must be observed…

For both Dry and Wet as well as for Containrships the  S and P front will flourish with more newbuildings but these will create another market only, as said, for the very very very few! Regulations and Equipment will play a pivotal role… Add the change of ownership pattern, something close to State Owned – or  a mixed of Public Sate owned entity and see whee we are heading! With money for shipfinance being difficult these days and will worsen be ready for the mega change in Shipping…

The WTI remained close to last years’ closing levels; at US$ 60.45 as these lines are written pauses dangers…

The main Stock Markets, Dow Jones and FTSE remained firm above the 24,800 and  7,640 respectively  but in our view these levels do not correlate with reality; is the end nigh in this instance?

The Geopolitical front remains sour: the Migrants issue got worse since last time round – 22 December 2017… We are prisoners of the Environment – that includes Climate Change, Geography, Religion – that includes Terrorism up to 60 centum, and Business Ideology… CAUTION as those who ignore reality and take things for granted, even international treaties are far “from the madding crowd” …err reality! “Everything flows, and nothing stays”,  the good old Greek knew well and it was and is still today well said!

The EU’s unity is being tested, shaken in its foundations so to speak and just wait to see what else is to come… SHAME!!!!

We are a bit far away from what it was anticipated as being the aftermath of the Syrian and Northern Iraq saga and still as we can observe there is more mess to come…

Turkey as always pestering everybody in its neighbour and this might ignite hostilities in a very wide region; NATO and the EU must intervene before it is too late.

Greece next door continues its course for an inevitable internal crash and this should be avoided as the effect will be shattering for the Greek people. The EU and other lenders are to blame, end of the story… Expect turmoil… Will Greece follow the United Kingdom in a GREXIT??

The Balkans too are in a mess and sooner or later the mess will be spread.

BREXIT enters the second phase; it will be a bitter phase affecting both sides. Our view is that BREXIT would be favourable and to the benefit of the British people! The most important issue is for the United Kingdom to avoid any kind of devolution. Some thinkers and nationalists should come down to their senses before they come down to their knees. Image the Austro-Hungarian Empire intact and do also imagine the effect of Quebec in Canada…

POEXIT too can happen. The Polish people have also concerns, immigration could work as a catalyst… and coupled with other issues can make the tick…

Spain lives its Catalonian saga… Caution…

Germany still without a government… Another issue to worry!

At the other side of the Atlantic president Trump raises the stakes on many issues: Iran. Israel, Palestine, North Korea – despite some manoeuvres for peace talks and meetings between the South and the North… Can the forthcoming 2018 Winter Olympics work as a catalyst for Peace?

Too many disturbances with Terrorists wold wide and it is time we end this mess with Islamist Terrorists… The post-Christmas period has been terrible. CAUTION!

China still ties to reassert itself whilst Japan is watching…

Africa remains in a total limbo; Democracy still tries to find friends there… CAUTION!!

Russia plays Putin card to maintain its position among the …first two… in leading Global issues…

Did you noticed the effects of the super moon early this am? At 02:24 hrs the first full moon of this month took place with a close apogee… preparing us for the second one on the 31st of January… Those being a bit superstitious blame the …Market fall… Nonsense…

Have a nice evening and be on guard for incidents emanating from Pirates and Terrorists wherever you are on Planet Ocean!

Happy and Healthy New Year!

___

*2,247 – 1,743=504

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