Capes unprecedented volatility might cause unprecedented mess…

Chartering, Dry Bulkcarriers, Insight, Markets, Reports, Shipping Indices, Stock Markets, Tankers — By on July 6, 2018 at 11:57 PM

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended up today with a contained rise, just ten points and  a 237 plus points since last Friday… Too good to be true, or what…? The geopolitics more than messy. John Faraclas’ daily and weekly recap:

At 1,622 points the BDI holds – for the time being, thanks to the Capes. From 1,385 last Friday the 29th of June to 1,622…

The Capes’ BCI made the big difference but today its rise was contained to a double-digit, that of 73 points and now stands at 3,086 – up 916 points from last week’s closing – 2,170! In some instances rates where in the region of  a t/c equivalent US$ 40,000…

The Panamaxes’ BPI was up eight points to 1,347 and on a weekly basis the rise was just 11 points – from 1,336… Better rates in the Atlantic as the Pacific remained oversupplied…

Fire, Police or Hospital call as at 999 …the Supras’ BSI sends warnings with a daily loss of six points and minus 43 from last week’s 1,042… On top of anything else the 1,000 point barrier has been broken… Tough days ahead…

Down with the Handies’ BHSI; the index lost two points on a daily basis, now reading 563 and on a weekly basis the loss was 14 points – from 581 points. A very much of  a squeezed situation…

So all in all an exceptionally enigmatic and volatile market were only one component makes waves and that’s dangerous… The Capes… The Capes… The Capes… Be on guard…

Expect a Newbuilding spree in all fronts which will completely alter the face of Shipping in its entirety. Very few will manage to go ahead as the rules are costly and new kids in block will make their presence felt.  As we have said – and written, Shipping will become shipping for the very very very few! Those with funds available will go ahead! Be prepared to see an Armageddon in the industry.  Shipyards is the good investment. Wonder if down in Greece’s Constitution Square can get the message!!!

Expect new Containerships designs too!! A new era is yet to come. The speed aspect and the new bunkers will play a significant role! Having said that, new Port and Terminals are on the horizon!

The Wets with mixed feelings; the last published BDTI  (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 710 – plus five and 502 – plus one respectively… On a weekly basis the Dirties lost 14 points – from 724 and the Cleans gained nine points – up from 493 ….

The WTI stood at US$ 73.90…. still difficult days ahead. Last week we had a higher level, US$ 74.25… CAUTION for the well known reasons… Producers, Traders and all involved must reason with the poverty around Planet Ocean and reduce the figure down to US$ 49.99 to avoid a social upturn which IS on the cards…

On the Migrants issue, the most important one from all put together – as we numerous times have referred to, things are getting far worse. It proves two main things and two issues –re-surface: Either the politicians and the diplomats and all involved are morons wearing the crown of stupidity, or they do it on purpose! Add the fact that “going back” to the drawing board, Frontex proved totally insufficient. The other issue is that of S&R – Search and Rescue, where after the latest incidents involving Malta, Italy, France and Spain, NGO’s are not allowed for Search and Rescue; if this is the case why for so long the Mediterranean Governments involved  didn’t increased the means for S&R. We also add our long standing “requirement”, the most important being that of a Naval Blockade, a complete Naval Blockade with a Mandate and Rules of Engagement for the entire Med and Black Sea – you see, “blocking” some paths, you “open” others… Above all the behaviour of governments in 2018 are beyond human rights, despite we live in 2018 and freedom and humane attitude as well as “democracy” is on, what they have been elected for and they do NOTHING!. But what do you expect from the muppet puppets show in Brussels; SHAME!!!

The Wars in Syria and Iraq have gone beyond the military level of destruction by all sides and the spill over is imminent not only in the wider Middle East region and its periphery – Arabian Peninsula,  but in the Balkans too… All combatants appear to pursue their vested interests in these regions and coupled with the Oil and Gas exploration in the East Med as well as the pipelines saga, will create more mess and this will drug-on and on for the foreseeable future. There will be also a collateral damage from the Trade Wars – already on, with the Tariffs and all that Jazz; add the BREXIT effect on Global Trade and see what you get! Shipping, I mean Trade will be severely affected and with the EOA – Environmental Orchestrated Anathema, yes you read correct: Anathema, as all must comply and save the Environment, things will get sour…. End of the story. Don’t touch though Shipping; the Shipping Industry’s “contribution” to Emissions is only 2.7 centum! See your factories emission and pollution levels and destruction of our environment clever dicks… I have to use a bit of an “odd” language to wake you up!!!

Did I hear you say saving the Global Economy? For a start, see what etymologically means “Economy” and then talk to me… Trillions of USDollars debts cover the national budgets and get ready for the big collapse… Did I hear you say EURO? What will happen with the Italian saga… Approaching Euros Three Trillion Debt… and then Brussels and Germany where “concerned” about the so called Greek debt  – which they have on purpose created…. Who lives and who dies after 2060, eh!

What’s up in Nantes, France eh? despicable on all counts from all sides. There is a mechanism to diffuse these tensions and France in particular know this; the respective authorities have to use it… The situation is crucial and for everything the response is disproportional… Three nights of mess!

Russia and China are very much concerned with president Trump’s Trade War which begin with the Tariffs. In my view, this Trade War will escalate to unprecedented levels and expect that the most self-sustained economies will survive… Europe too might feel the Americans Trade War Wrath; caution. We might witness another recession with whatever this entails… Japan is watching as always on the side lines and Abe must do the trick or miss the boat…

Turkey is in a state of total mess despite the double elections and Erdogan’s pyrrhic victories… Expect developments. It is Erdogan’s last show as very soon, having divided his country – the end results speak for themselves. He has a lot to tackle and I guess his patrons will soon will have enough and the countdown for him and Turkey will begin. Above all Erdogan , his likes and patrons / backers from abroad and the religious factor, MUST respect its neighbours frontiers, or else!

Greece next door, as always at odds with Turkey, is also in a Dire Straits situation, beyond a Catch22 phase…Internally, political charlatans and morons supported even by the frightened Greek capitalist elite and the foreign factor have brought the country to a standstill! Expect an unprecedented outcome as the external issues are causing discontent among the Greek public; fYRoM’s name, Albanian territorial waters settlement, Turkey’s long standing differences / disputes that the EU cannot defend one of its member states and NATO still is in seventh-heavens so to speak nirvana – sleep, as Brussels and the World at large are subjected to Turkish blackmail… Caution as you never ever know what turning things upside-down can produce, when enough is enough!

The Balkans are in turmoil yet again; Putin’s Russia will do its best to secure a foothold even at any cost… Sanctions cannot work for the Russians, particularly now and seeing the Crimea saga and East Ukraine’s issues over the last three years… Kosovo still unsettled; how a settlement can take effect with Serbia and Russia being offended. Croatia still stirs issues which even surfaced in the World Cup 2018 in Russia; any objection,  eh!!!

BREXIT: A marathon meeting of Mrs. May Cabinet at Chequers produced results; let’s see the end result and Brussels final reaction – the negotiators’ view always count but its 27 states vote that counts more. The European Union chief negotiator Mr. Barnier expects to see a shift in the United Kingdom’s red lines and access if same are “workable and realistic”. That suggests to me a soft-BREXIT, but don’t count your eggs before they are thatched… In any event it’s a very perplexed process and it is Brussels to blame that there wasn’t a coherent plan and rules in the event a member state had to leave the EU. We have numerous times mention this!!! We should never ever take things for granted!

In the USA the MIGRANTS issue with Mexico and the family separations is a very serious issue which MUST be tackled as children cannot suffer; end of the story. Having said that, what is needed is Draconian steps and measures to contain illegal immigration from Mexico to the USA. The porous borders needs to be thoroughly and by all means protected as any porous border harm the country which receives the MIGRANTS and other things including contraband, drugs, you name it. Meantime wonder what is going to happen with the president’s Supreme Court short list…

Moreover, what’s up with North Korea, eh! Too many trips and discussions between the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo with North Korea’s  Kim Yong-choi, the right-hand of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s and on Sunday he will meet in Tokyo the South Korean and Japanese Foreign Secretaries. Crucial days for ALL ahead… We shall see as the USA and president Trump wish this issue to end as soon as possible and contribute to World’s Peace.

What a touching story with the twelve Thailand young boys trapped in a cave! There have been emotional letters exchanged  with their parents, for the first time since their ordeal began two weeks ago. On top of everything else a former Tahi navy diver, petty officer Saman Gunan lost consciousness on his way out from the Tham Luang cave complex whilst trying to rescue the 12 boys and their football coach – he was bringing air tanks! Pity and the agony continues!

In Brazil the country’s Embraer and Boeing strike a deal which will see the control of Embraer’s commercial plane by the Americans; it has been quite a while of high flyers’ flirting…

What is going on between DR Congo and Uganda  following deadly clashes?

The World Cup in Russia continued with two more countries from the other side of the Atlantic – South America in particular, being eliminated. France won Uruguay with two goals to none and five times World Champions Brazil lost 2 to 1 to Belgium. Never take things for granted… A more than a hot weekend is expected particularly in the UK as England takes on the Swedes… Two more European nations clash: Russia and Croatia…

Wimbledon continues and our Greek ace Stefanos Tsitsipas is through after a decisive victory over Italy’s Thomas Fabbiano in straight sets! There were also some very tough games and surprises…

Another major event worth noticing:  13 Greek MEPs unite their voice to support uptake of LNG for Greek coastal shipping! 

Petition calls for EU Commission support on the smooth transition of Greek coastal shipping to LNG:

13 Greek MEPs sent a petition to the President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker and the responsible Commissioners of the European Parliament, requesting their support for the two major Greek investment proposals relating to the energy transition into the use of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).

Specifically, “BlueHUBS” aims at creating the core supply chain for the distribution of NG to port users in the form of LNG for ships and CNG for port heavy duty vehicles and buses. “BlueWAYS”, which is submitted by private shipping companies and other investors, is focused on meeting the demand.

The two projects will lay the foundations for a sustainable Short Sea Shipping market and will play a catalytic role in the development of South-East Mediterranean by attracting investment.

The petition concludes with advocating both proposals, as they form a prerequisite for the territorial cohesion of Greece. Moreover it calls the Commission, on the occasion of the forthcoming CEF2, to amend the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) policy and the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) mechanism criteria and funding provisions, in order to include clauses with reference to sectors with special conditions in economy, energy and transport, such as the regional, remote and inaccessible island clusters of the Greek archipelago.

Thank you!

Ancient Epidaurus is the last …stop tonight. Anny Zade was there to honour Aeschylus and his classic Agamemnon… What a play by Cesaris Grausinis… Remembering Clytemnestra… What a plot… Now you know why the Greeks think and act in their own way… be it Tragedy or Comedy,  they know; Classics you see… History revisited… One day you will all witness what I mean…

Have a nice weekend and continue to be on guard for any actions emanating from Pirates, Terrorists and Criminals of any kind wherever you are on Planet Ocean!

 

Uploaded 23:05 BST

Updated 23:57 BST

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