Capes’ contained rise and perplexed figures rule the day… plus the 2020 saga

Associations, Bunkering, Chartering, Comment, Conferences, Seminars, Forums, Dry Bulkcarriers, Events, IMO, Intercargo, Markets, Military, News, Reports, Shipping Indices, Statistics, Stock Markets, Tankers, Trade and Commerce, WISTA - Women in Shipping — By on October 3, 2018 at 9:55 PM

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) gained four points and now stands at 1,574; Geopolitics in total mess and the Environment another issue to be appropriately tackled… John Faraclas’ daily recap:

The Capes’ BCI was up 51 points and now stands at 2,199… Are the capes sustainable or just volatile, or another bubble? We shall see…

Just one point plus for the Panamaxes’ BPI now at 1,679 points; caution…

The Supras too on one point; the BSI managed to clinch  this one very special point and now reads 1,190 point – this size proved the most steady and sustainable one!

Two points plus for the Handies’ BHSI now at 633… Every little counts…

Wonder though with the figures of today’s indices… Something is not right… How come only four points plus for the BDI whilst all indices were on the plus and the Capes gained  51 point?

The Wets on the …up; marginal but positive! The last published BDTI (Dirties) stood at 801 – plus eight and  the BCTI (Cleans) 551 – plus two respectively…

VesselsValue’s interesting Future Values  which follows herebelow, on the Top 5 Asset Plays, must be thoroughly  studied:

Predicting the recovery in asset prices involves many factors, and the current strength of spot market returns, or term hire rates are only a part of the story. Value investors still have plenty of opportunities to acquire prime aged assets at a significant discount to their expected future market value.

Tankers offer the most promising investment overall, as most large crude tankers still have significant upside remaining based on an analysis of expected market trends over the next several years. However, opportunities abound in other vessel classes as well.

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  • Handysize Bulkers – Lagging other bulker segments, but ton mile demand for these units remains on a gradual upwards slope.
  • Panamax Container Vessels – The removal of a significant number of older ships has preserved the value of prime age and fuel-efficient vessels.
  • LR1 Tankers – The large clean product tanker segment has seen a tough market environment over the past several years due to the large growth in vessel supply.
  • Aframax Tankers – Aframaxes have suffered from changes in trade patterns, but remain the workhorses of the crude tanker fleet, and the average age of the fleet on the water remains high. Rates should recover as older units come out of service, preserving the value of a five-year-old ship.

Vessel specific forecasts give a much better view of the expected asset value performance, but the trend in five year old asset values is a good starting point when looking for discounted vessels.

Look forward to you comments.

The WTI went over the US$ 76 mark and that pauses many dangers. See our last two reports on this issue…

The Geopolitical issues continue and don’t be surprised of what is yet to come; in a bankrupt Planet Ocean everything is possible – we have given you from last Friday, Monday and yesterday some hints maintaining also our position over the last couple of years as well as the view ten years ago…

MIGRANTS, Syria and Iraq, Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, the Balkans, Italy and the entire EU in a despicable mess and many prefer to hide the truth… Did I hear you say BREXIT??  Mrs. May did he best at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham and let’s hope she will lead Britain to even better days. Others cae only for the seat! The other side of the Atlantic has other issues – the north pat weighs its dominance and the south in disarray… The Far East ties its best but China cannot as yet confront the USA, particularly now that president Trump defends America in its entirety. Putin’s Russia has other designs and an all-out conflagration is ante portas… Japan watches in the side lines… Africa still in its own “hibernation” and unorthodox conflicts… Oceania looks better…

Dr Kostas G. GKONIS, INTERCARGO’s
Secretary General

On another tone and note following  INTERCARGO’s AGM and elections and spotting the issue on the ‘hot topic’ of 2020, I asked Dr. Kostas Gkonis, INTERCARGO’s Secretary General his opinion; he said:

Any crisis is like a coin, it has two sides: there is the clear downside but also an upside, the creation of opportunities that may result in benefits at least for some of those involved in the crisis. The 2008 one was unexpected and any upside opportunities were largely associated with luck.

“I see 2020 as the single biggest and most far reaching event affecting the shipping industry post-2008 and this time we have a date for it moreover, we know in advance when it will happen! “2020” has regrettably significant potential downside elements, but because we know when it is coming I see moreover great opportunities for indeed calculated profit-making or risk-taking if you prefer. It is legitimate of course for free-enterprise market players to make their commercial decisions accordingly and seek profit”

He continued saying: “Our Association is not concerned with commercial decisions, we are advocating for Quality shipping based on the two pillars of safety and environmental soundness. The ‘2020 regulation’ is welcome as it is environmentally driven and this is one important pillar. But when it comes to compromising safety, then we have an issue.”

Dr. Gkonis ended: “It is not acceptable for anyone that has a say and responsibility in relation to safety to be even indifferent against any prospect of potential safety compromise. We would not be against any profit making interests, just because they would seek to profit from 2020 – this is irrelevant to our Association’s concerns. But, if you prefer, we would be even more so, if anything like this was to happen at the expense of safety.”

A great forum concludes on Friday in Malta when we will fully report on the Malta Maritime Summit! Check for the events in the site and ensure you attend the WISTA one up in Tromsø, Norway  22-26 October, the IBIA in Copenhagen 6-8 November – a crucial one on bunkering…

Have a nice evening and continue to be on guard from any eventuality emanating from Pirates, Terrorists and any Criminals whatsoever wherever you are on Planet Ocean…

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