The BDI@1,536: you cannot fight against the future*

Chartering, Dry Bulkcarriers, Markets, Military, News, Piracy and Terrorism, Reports, Shipping Indices, Statistics, Stock Markets, Tankers, Trade and Commerce — By on October 5, 2018 at 11:50 PM

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended the week with minus 18 points, another double digit loss following yesterday’s minus 20 points… It was down four points since last Friday the 28th of September when the BDI stood at 1,540… A bit of odd figures as you will read herebelow; they don’t correlate at all both with the rates as well with the indices ups and downs…  Geopolitics continue to worsen. John Faraclas’ daily and weekly recaps:

The volatile Capes lost 67 points and the BCI now stands at 2,081 points. This is though 81 points plus since last week’s 2,000 points flat…

The Panamaxes’ BPI gained 21 points and now reads 1,727 points, that’s also 32 points plus since last week’s 1,695 points; well done!

Supras continue to do well despite the single digit rise; five points plus and the BSI now stands at 1,197 points – hopefully,  about to go over and above the 1,200 point threshold. It was also three points higher from last week’s 1,194 points!!!

The Handies’ BHSI managed also to be on an upward mode; today at 637 –  plus three points, maintains the momentum… Good to see that the BHSI was up eight points from last week’s 629 points!

So all in all a stranded Dry Market and the figures in my humble view don’t  add up… We look forward to our viewers’ comments on this! We are 711 points below the level as of end of December 2013 mark when the BDI stood at 2,247 points; that’s a fact, end of the story!

The Wets took off with double-digits; the last published  BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 837 and 587 points respectively; on both categories the plus was the same: 29 (twentynine) points !!! On a weekly basis both Dirties and Cleans were on a good 32 and 46 points plus rise – from 805 and 541 points respectively (28/09)!!!

Vessels prices are very low and one must be careful both for newbuildings as well as for second hand tonnage; remember: always investigate before you speculate… One issue that we like to stress is that of Responsibility in the entire shipping industry; responsibility walks hand in hand with capacity and power and we wish to see all stakeholders exercise responsibility for the 2020  issue and beyond. This is the truth as truth is the only thing that cannot be improved upon. Try to interpret this with the IMO on 2020 and beyond as lately there are many voices challenging the IMO and the existing timetable. Festina lente… eh! 

Going a bit further and … deeper on the environmental front, as a lot has been said and done and there is more to be done, but Rome was not built in a day… Everybody condemns shipping on the pollution and emissions saga and that’s utterly wrong given that shipping is the non-polluting champion by far from all other polluters put together. 2020 is here but… Have you ever though for example how the air-industry could become if we electrify airplane flights?  It will take some time but until then we can improve as we can electrify all ground vehicles servicing the airports and air-terminals. We can also have new terminals and retrofit same making them carbon neutral as technologies already exist! Aircraft makers can reduce its carbon footprint as much as possible; renewable energy can do it… You all know my argument that if we change the existing status and we opt for the alternative sources of energy one thing will happen: BIG MONEY WILL CHANGE HANDS! Shipowners are not shipyards or engine manufacturers, OK! Shipping is the lowest level polluter from all others put together as said above; 2,7 centum is shipping’s polluting “contribution”… Eh!!!! The IMO must weigh the situation as there are very powerful voices around; end of the story… Arctic ships might slow warming particularly as summer ice retreats and this can bring an unexpected upside… I am for Arctic ships and shipping but we need infrastructure in place to avoid oil spills and other disasters as there would be more and more ships sailing in the Arctic…

The WTI continues to rise and earlier on today stood at US$74.31; last week it stood at US$73.50 and the previous week ending 22/9 it stood at US$70.68. CAUTION CAUTION CAUTION.

ALL main Stock Exchanges were in red today…  CAUTION!!!!!

The Geopolitics remain on all fronts marred and ultra-caution should be observed.  Be ready for the pre-Armageddon explosion. We live in a bankrupt world under too many regional wars  – and many to come soon… The Migrants issue is the  biggest shame of our society!!! Did I hear you also say money laundering, eh??? There is War on Everything, right?

The Wars in Syria and Iraq as well as the situation in the entire Middle East and beyond gets now in a new phase, the worst of all that you have ever imagined… Expect a spill over and with Turkey’s threats it will be the first big bang… Turkey wants to invade both northern Syria and North West Iraq, which is now the nucleus of Kurdistan! Demilitarisation zones can only work only if both sides are willing to do so… Putin’s Russia is explicit for its interest in Syria…  Iranian involvement gets things off hand and obviously Israel and the USA are ready to tackle Iranian interference which is also a part of the USA walking out of the Obama et al agreement with Iran… As we numerous times have stressed attention should be on the area from Gibraltar to Afghanistan and from the Caucuses to the Horn of Africa…

Turkey’s bankruptcy is the biggest headache for all and all of its neighbours feel the bullying and the West also feels the traditional Turkish blackmail creating havoc everywhere. Given Turkey’s despicable behaviour within NATO and  its real attitude against Europe, it is about time the USA intervenes. We demand that both NATO and Brussels condemn the intrusion and violation of Greece’s and conversely the European Union’s airspace and territorial waters from the Turkish air force , warships, “fishing” boats and indeed its coastguard. There is an accident waiting to happen and there will be no excuses… Keeping equal distances is the best policy…

In Greece the situation becomes financially grave in a week which saw the banking sector dive in Athex, despite lifting certain capital controls and the coalition government’s announcing the end of the so called Memorandum and the end of the period post the third rescue package,  things are getting more than sour… On the foreign issues there are too many hiccups with the current diplomatic developments… Pity, expect an upheaval any time… We reiterate our position for an ARISTOS team to run the country for ten years – see previous statements and references on this… The European creditors and others must come down to their senses before they come down to their knees as the way they bully the Greek people continues to be despicable!!!!!

Cyprus tries its best vis-à-vis the so called peace talks as well as with the oil and gas in its territorial waters and EEZ… The two communities are being testing their nerves for 44 plus years but the mediators are biased and what can happen if honesty is absent… ?Let’s see how Block 7 progresses…

The situation in the Western Balkans is also grave; Albania, fYroM, Kosovo, Serbia, Bosnia & Hercegovina with Turkey stirring up the situation – due to supposed religious issues might produce tectonic movements so to speak with all the …eagles ready for another Balkan War… Russia closely is watching and does its best for its interests… Greece has long ago explained that all these under duress agreements and developments do not have a leg to stand… yet its current coalition regime plays with fire… What an oxymoron… CAUTION!

What will happen if hostilities lead to the closure of the Suez Canal and other dire straits in the wider region (Aden, Constantinople, Hormuz, even Gibraltar) and China is left out with extreme delays to its products reaching the European Markets..? The New Silk Road in my humble view is vulnerable and cannot equalise the sea-lanes! Shipping will be tested…

Italy lives in a financial chaos as the current coalition government will not give in to Brussels pressure especially for its new budget… The fourth most powerful EU member as well as a G7 member is in tatters with a US$ 2,5 trillion debt…  Are we going to witness a default or  an exit from the Euro? Expect tough negos as the current coalition regime in Italy is not a joke…

End game with Switzerland as its banking system lifts the veil of confidentiality for all depositors there… Expect revelations and very soon…

France and Germany are still in a mess… in all fronts. The entire EU has issues that MUST be solved asap before it is too late… Be on GUARD!

The Russians are bullying the entire EU and beyond and wonder what’s next… Putin’s agenda is not changing an iota… Obviously he knows when to make or break but there are hidden forces that can also cause him troubles… Nobody is immune to asymmetrical attacks…

BREXIT continuous with many twists and turns and nothing can be said at this moment except to keep an eye for any sudden odd developments although we all wish a happy ending with mutuality to govern the relationship between the UK and the EU! … All things been equal, you never ever know… Elements of the Conservative party should come down to their senses before they floor down the entire UK only to please their egos… If  Mrs May’s government falls, expect mess, so hands off Mrs. May!

At the other side of the Atlantic it looks certain that president Trump’s nominee for the Supreme Court, after weeks of “delicate” debates, will win even with one vote. Be patience until tomorrow evening BST time!

Can Jair Bolsonaro make it in Brazil this coming Sunday? Is Democracy at stake or Brazil must have Law and Order? This presidential election is gone to be a turning point not just for Brazil but for the entire South America. CAUTION!

Next door in its southern frontiers,  Argentina is once again in financial mess after ten yeas from the latest bang there. CAUTION….

Venezuela must see at least a transition period and Nicholas Maduro MUST pack up and go…

In Mozambique jihadist attacks  claim 90 lives in the northern province of Cabo Delgado; CAUTION ! Some good news from Zimbabwe where the economy gets better all the time… Let’s hope it does in the post Mugabe era!

Whatever happened to Interpol’s president, Meng Hongwei, who has gone missing on a visit to China… This is despicable!

China is now counting its strength to counter to the USA’s War on Tariffs… CAUTION, as protectionism can be tough for all and sustainable economy for time being is only that of the USA!

South Korea sees another of its former presidents end up in jail; Lee Myung-bak has just been sentenced for 15 years for corruption – bribery, embezzlement and abuse of power. Can he pay the fine of US$ 11,5 mio ? Was it a political motivated trial as he says or what?  Before him his predecessor  Ms Park Guen-hye got 33 years being found guilty also for abuse of power and coercion! This is the last thing South Koreans expected given their most important issue being that of the relations with the North Koreans…

An issue bothering all is the unprecedented cyber attacks that we suffer in the West from the East and its escalation will have detrimental effects for all. The UK and its allies are being targeted and the  counter attack is imminent!

Now reading and studying the above you can understand how difficult it becomes for shipping to operate, particularly for the small to medium sized shipowners, hence we have warned you that Shipping becomes Shipping for the very very very few!

On another tone and note the 2nd Malta Maritime Summit (1 to 5 Oct) ended  today. A whole week with many deliberations and interesting presentations made it a special event. Will revert with a summary.

Have a nice evening and a peaceful weekend remaining though on guard from any actions emanating from Pirates, Terrorists and any Criminals whatsoever wherever you are on Planet Ocean…AND feel happy as today back in 1962 the LOVE ME DO by the Beatles was released…


*Try to interpret this with the current state of the Markets and the situation all over Planet Ocean…

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