Markets and Geopolitics: Between the devil and the deep blue sea* …and a Winter BBQ to remember!

Chartering, Dry Bulkcarriers, Energy, Environment, Insight, Markets, News, Reports, Shipping Indices, Tankers, Trade and Commerce — By on January 18, 2019 at 11:58 PM

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) gained  35 points earlier on today and now reads 1,112; on a weekly basis though the BDI was down  57 points – from 1,169 (11/1/2019). Geopolitics in total disarray.  John Faraclas’ daily and weekly recaps:

Capes’ unprecedented volatility develops mess rather than optimism; the BCI gained 169 points now at  2,037  but on a weekly basis the “rise” wasn’t that good – “only” 71 points plus from the 1,966 of last week’s closing…

The fall continues with the Panamaxes’ BPI losing 27 points – now reading 1,018. The weekly losses on a triple-digit: 119 points – down from 1,137!

The Supras’ BSI …followed “suit” after losing 28 points and now just about to go under the 700 point threshold, 701  to be precise was the reading… The weekly loss was the biggest from all the other indices: 141 points – down from 842!

The “innocent” so to speak Handies lost 15 points with the BHSI now standing at 451 points; the weekly loss was substantial for this particular size: 73 points were wiped-off – down from 524 loosing the 500 points psychological base…

The Wets had fallen both on a daily as well as on a weekly basis; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 891 – minus eight and 665 – remained the same respectively. The weekly losses are a bit itching:  39 points down for the Dirties – from 930 (loosing also the 900 point threshold) and nine – from 674 respectively from the 11 Jan 2019!

Now you can get a picture were we stand and what is yet to come…  A market for the very very very few and still far apart from the closing of December 2013 when the BDI stood at 2,247 points (2,247 – 1,135). Reality bites. Add the fact that more and more ships are coming in the water, the 2020 still debatable as far as its functionality is concerned, the BWMC and see what you get! Money money money: from where owners can get obtain shipfinance as we knew it? Many replies will be given and debates on the 10th Annual Marine Money London Ship Finance Forum next Wednesday the 23rd of January at The Dorchester Hotel.

The WTI ended up at US$ 54.04 – on the plus both for the day but on a weekly basis too; US$ 2.45 higher than last week’s closing – 51.59! CAUTION!

The Geopolitical aspects remain the same:

MIGRANTS more than a messy and despicable saga with many drown in the Med. Over 4,200 migrants crossed to Europe in the first fortnight of 2019 and 2,200 lost their lives last year (2018) whilst trying to cross the Med for Europe. No excuse will ever be accepted from the politicians, diplomats and their cronies. We have said it : “A naval blockade of the entire North Africa –  Morocco to Lattakia and then on the entire Anatolia coast – what is today Turkey,  as well as to close all ports thus the smugglers are cut-off and therefore cannot do business and or kill the MIGRANTS as unfortunately happens; end of the story!

The faulty line between Gib to Afghanistan and from the Caucuses down the Horn of Africa including the major hot spots Balkans – ready to explode from a multiple of reasons; Syria and Iraq and in general the entire 2,000 km periphery/radius around Damascus will produce further mess with the continuous Turkish stir-up and Putin’s Russia agenda… which also extend inside the heat on the fragile situ in the Balkans – Serbia, Kosovo and fYroM…

The East Med hot spot Greece –  Cyprus  – Turkey is too dangerous including the Aegean… The USA via president Trump’s communique are explicit with respect protecting the Kurds and others…

Turkey must abide of all provocations including those against NATO and EU members…

Greece still in a messy situation and let’s see what happens this coming Sunday with the big demo in Athens’ Constitution Square against the name issue and other issues with its northern neighbour fYroM !

I am not ruling out even civil wars in Southern Europe around the summer period during or even after the European Parliament elections in May!

France will live its 10th week with the yellow vests which might soon appear in other European countries…

The BREXIT saga, as expected, gets more perplexed with a very much of a combination of Shakespearean and Agatha Christie fiction… results to come… CAUTION…

The European Union has to short out its finances before we witness a further escalation of ultra-right wing parties and populist revolts from the centre-left… Convergence is the name of …the game as well as the MIGRANTS issue which MUST be solved one way or another before it creates more than explosive situations with despicable and detrimental results for all sides!

Poland is being tried following the stabbing and eventual death of Gdansk’s mayor Pawel Adamowicz (who served as Mayor for 20 years) and a divided Poland appears now like a ghost; caution!

Europe needs a revamp so German lead Brussels gets its act together!

At the other side of the Atlantic the Shutdown creates havoc for over 800,000 federal workers… Meantime president Trump has to face another wave of MIGRANTS’ caravans approaching to the US / Mexican border… Add that many issues are raising as to his future… We shall see… but difficult days lay ahead…

All eyes these days turn to Far East to witness an end to the falling economy there and see what happens after the Chinese new Year – 5th of February… has arrived…. Japan is closely watching all developments  from the nuclear ones  in the Korean Peninsula  to the Trade issues in the entire region which great affects all on Planet Ocean… Can the Chinese locomotive continue or it is running out of steam and the bubble bursts? Eh!! AND, will China abandon its ambitions for more territory in the South China Sea as well as how will Beijing tackles Taiwan?

Many African Counties are in turmoil…

South America lives with the Venezuelan despicable situation whilst all eyes are looking to Brazil… What’s Bolsonaro doing?

Australia melts in a record breaking heatwave!

Now you can see above what really keeps us awake at night; the possibility of hostilities and the danger for closing of Planet Ocean’s major dire straits – Suez, Hormuz, Aden, Bosporus, Otranto to name but a few if you really understand geopolitics…

A view from the Winter BBQ

On another tone and note the annual Winter BBQ hosted by Dr. Ravi Mehrotra ended a few minutes ago; will revert with a write up soon. It was on all counts the Winter BBQ to remember.

Have a nice evening as well as a nice weekend and remain on guard from actions emanating from Pirates, Terrorists, Criminals and Business Hooligans whatsoever wherever you are on Planet Ocean… Try to watch the super blood wolf moon in the early hours of Monday, weather permitted…

*…Scylla and Charybdis: Homer’s Odyssey can give you the replies… both for the Markets as well as for Geopolitics…

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